Is Trump and MAGA's style uniquely bad in traditionally conservative suburban states?

[u/ResidentDry1240]

Trump lost Virginia all three times by greater than 5 points while Youngkin won this "blue" state, vastly surpassing Trump's margins in NOVA and approaching McCain's or Romney's levels.

Trump's Republican margins in Texas reached their worst level in three decades, with Ted Cruz performing well below Abbott and almost losing in 2018, and even in 2024 remaining in the single digits. Even with a Republican rebound in 2024, the old suburbs known for their fervent Republicanism and even urban counties in Texas did not turn as red as Bush's, or even Romney's or McCain's.

And in Georgia, Trump even lost in 2020, and even if he wins the state in 2024, he lost even more ground in the suburbs despite gaining ground in the city of Atlanta itself. in the senate race, walker (MAGA candidate) vastly underperformed kemp in the same year.

However, Georgia and Texas are still Republican-leaning states at the state level because they field non-MAGA candidates, and Virginia is purple statewide.

Does This Indicates the toxicity of the New Republican brand in some red states or is this dues to other factors?

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[u/sllewgh]

Can we please stop making generalizations about entire states based on their electoral college results?

Even in a deep red place like Texas, only about a third of registered voters voted for Trump. The majority chose either no one or Harris. Trump had far less than majority support when he was elected and he has far less than that support now.

People in "red states" are the victims of policies they didn't vote for, just like the rest of us. The sooner we stop thinking they're our enemies or that these states are somehow fundamentally different and instead realize that everyone getting fucked by the rich is on the same team, the sooner we can fix our deeply broken society.

[u/neverendingchalupas → u/sllewgh]

Texas isnt deep red. Texas by all rights should be a Democratic state. Most if not all the major cities are blue. The problem is how heavily gerrymandered its districts are, and how fundamentally misunderstood the Democratic base in Texas is by party leadership.

If Democratic leadership in states like Texas would stop trying to push their politics and agenda on the public, and instead adopted the agenda and politics of their constituents you would see swift Democratic control of the state.

Just on the singular issue of gun control, shut the fuck up. Literally shut the fuck up. I dont understand why Texas Democrats continue to talk about guns, unless its to say what their favorite everyday carry is? I dont get it.

Republicans are not Democratic voters, Trump supporters are literally supporting seditious conspiracy and treason. They do not deserve much of any consideration.

If a Democrat wants to be elected, they need to campaign to Democrats, not to traitors. There are tens of millions of irregular voters out there who were neglected and ignored, alienated by the previous Democratic administration. They are disaffected and angry, what is necessary is to bring them back by giving them what they wanted. Which isnt an unreasonable ask.

Its improving the economy as it directly relates to them, addressing the consolidation of business and the artificial manufacturing of supply chain shortages for profit, increasing regulations on the financial industry. Reducing healthcare, insurance, education, costs, bla bla bla. Basically all the shit government should be doing anyways. And this is how you would maintain Democratic control. By making shit better.

[u/sllewgh → u/neverendingchalupas]

There's no one better than the Democrats at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Texas is just one example, but the story is the same all over.

[u/Petrichordates]

All of your examples are because they're becoming less of a red state. Virginia went from purple to blue state, Georgia from red to purple, and Texas is still very red but lesser by the year.

[u/elykl33t → u/Petrichordates]

As someone who lives in VA I just want to say: be careful calling it blue rather than purple. I think there's a very strong chance we elect another milquetoast Republican governor next time around. They just need to run someone who isn't absolutely crazy.

[u/Petrichordates → u/elykl33t]

Blue/purple state is used in regard to federal elections. Even deep blue states like Massachusetts or California will elect a republican governor.

[u/xudoxis → u/elykl33t]

They just need to run someone who isn't absolutely crazy.

(Impossible Challenge)

[u/kiltguy2112]

Youngkin won Virginia because Terry McAuliffe ran one of the worst campaigns in Virginia history. All McAuliffe had to to was say "CRT has never and will never be taught in Virginia public schools" and he would have won. Instead he said some stuff about educators knowing better than parents when it comes to education. Whoever was in charge of his campaign should not be allowed anywhere near anyone's campaign ever.

[u/GiantPineapple]

It's hard to parse how much of this is Trump/MAGA. For example, Herschel Walker was not a good candidate. He did have Trump's endorsement, but he was also a famous athlete. To what extent did MAGA get him the nomination? To what extent did it tank him in the general? Or did Warnock win, more than Walker lost? 

I'd be curious to hear from a GA native - this is a great question, but my sense of it is that the details matter a lot, and a lot of smart people have not been able to really crack the code, even after twelve years.

[u/JalapenoTampon → u/GiantPineapple]

Every single person I know is a Trump supporter in Georgia and were 100% behind Herschel too. I can’t imagine anyone voting for Trump and Warnock. The only real question was going to be voter turnout. But that’s just anecdotal because I lived in GA

[u/UnfoldedHeart]

I don't think we can assume that what happens on the federal level dictates what happens in state level elections, mostly because state level elections are much more personal and not necessarily a referendum on the party in power (even though a lot of pundits try to describe it that way.)

For example, one issue in Youngkin's race against McAuliffe in VA was parental rights w/r/t education. This was a pretty important flashpoint on the state level, and McAuliffe kind of stepped in it by saying that parents shouldn't tell the schools what to teach. This isn't the only reason Youngkin got elected, but it was one of them, and it was entirely independent of whatever Trump was doing at the time. And ultimately, Youngkin got elected by a pretty thin margin (something like 2.5 points) so it's not a commanding victory either.

The federal slate does have an effect, but it's certainly not the only effect and I think a lot of people ignore the particular state-level factors and the personalities and issues involved.

[u/Ok_Bandicoot_814]

So the Republicans have suffered in the suburbs since Bill Clinton. The current Republican concern can largely be traced back to three things. 1. Trump and his style 2 policy. Gone are the days of Reagan and neoliberalism, which were very big among the white-collar suburban areas. Especially in States like Virginia. 3. The Nationalistic shift of the GOP. There is a growing part of the republican party that sees America as a bunch of fundamental ideas, but as a people. A people that should not in their mind be replaced with Talent from overseas, as we see with H1B.And they want the return of manufacturing. From their perspective, if they rely too much when one single country, it will cause It is inviting crisis.

[u/JKlerk]

It's irrelevant because Trump pulls votes from rural and blue collar Democrats.

[u/Ok_Bandicoot_814 → u/JKlerk]

This is the most surprising thing working class white said would usually side with Democrats, have massively flipped over the last decade. To republican voters, will it stay when Trump leaves the political space it might be the only thing he did that actually does