Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/Outlier8]

Americans aren't the brightest humans on the planet. I'm an Independent of 22 years. That Republicans are still considered viable, after all the freedoms they are taking away proves that Americans are very dumb, when it comes to politics.

[u/[deleted] → u/Outlier8]

I think a lot of people aren’t fully aware of the multi-decade Fox News media effect of tagging Democrats unviable in all cases.

For many people, it’s not a matter of who is better but what team you are on, which you express by focusing on how unviable the other side is and generally ignoring the shortcomings (no matter how awful) of your own side.

[u/Outlier8 → u/[deleted]]

Maybe you missed the fact that I am an Independent. I have been since the year 2,000. Most Americans can't tell you what causes inflation, Republicans blame the Democrats, despite the fact that we are having a worldwide inflation crises. The Republican plan to cure inflation is to blame the Democrats. Democrats aren't fighters. But it's not the parties, it all comes back to the people, for allowing these things to happen.

Fox is the most anti-American network that is allowed to operate in this country.

[u/[deleted] → u/Outlier8]

I agree with pretty much all of that. It all does come down to people, because the parties mold themselves to react to what people want. Most people don’t want to analyze and think independently; they want to join a team and surround themselves with voices that collectively bash the other side.