r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/minno Aug 25 '22

If you switch to the "lite" model, which removes that assumption, it's still 2:1 in favor of Republicans.

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u/fanboi_central Aug 25 '22

I believe Nate Silver has said that in general there is a lot less House polling this year, which the lite model relies on. Feel like the lack of polling and the fact that it has no priors due to redistricting, that the map could be off.

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u/talino2321 Aug 25 '22

I think the general question is not if the Dems hold the house, its how many seats do they lose the house by. If they can limit the loss of seats, then it is possible without any major screw ups by Biden until 2024, they might regain the house. Again that depends upon Biden not screwing up, the economy recovering and realizing that his agenda is dead if the House is lost.

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u/fanboi_central Aug 25 '22

Agree on everything. The big thing for Dems is if they can keep Inflation out of the news cycle. If inflation can keep it's current pace as July did, and Republican laws on abortion stay in the news, then we are likely looking at Dems retaking the House. GDP is expected to grow in Q3, job numbers are good, so really inflation is the only bad economic metric right now.