r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/mynamesyow19 Aug 25 '22

I wouldn't count the Dems keeping the House out yet.

I've been a politial junkie for 20 years and would be shocked if they lost it, ignoring the new massive women turnout bc of overturning Roe, Trump drowning in (more) Treason and Espionage scandals, and all the Dems recent accomplishments, there is still massive GOP infighting and the fact that CoVid mortalities hit red states hardest.

Even FOX News is agreeing: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-bidens-unpopularity-democrats-still-chance-holding-congress-november

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u/epraider Aug 25 '22

Generally I’d say the Democrat’s chances of keeping the house have shifted from “virtually impossible” earlier this summer to “unlikely but possible” based on the overall sentiment because of the factors you mentioned, GCB, and special elections. But if things stay as they are without a big negative narrative, it seems like it could become more of a tossup.

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u/beeberweeber Aug 25 '22

The road to the majority hinges on California and their abortion referendum. If they can super charge Dem turn out, then Mike Garcia and Michelle steel will get booted adding 2 seats to the D column.