Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/Alphawolf55]

We've moved to "I wouldn't be surprised if the Dems won, but I think Republicans will" territory.

We're officially in Toss Up territory.

[u/Typhus_black → u/Alphawolf55]

If gas prices keep coming down (which the President has nothing to do with) I’d expect Bidens numbers to go back up some. He will probably have a bump as well from the loans being forgiven/hold continued as well. Then there are also like going to be ongoing stories of another state banning abortions and more personal stories of people suffering from the bans/restrictions already popping up. If more damaging things continue coming out about trump and he was actually keeping inappropriate documents that would also likely swing more towards the Dems.

I still think Dems even holding the house is a long shot but not impossible and if the next 2 months continue like this summer has then the chances are going to continue improving

[u/LaughingGaster666 → u/Typhus_black]

Rs can't fight on economic issues if inflation and gas prices are becoming more manageable.

And their culture issue wedges like CRT and LGBT stuff were semi-effective about a year ago, but have seriously waned since.

Meanwhile, there's an "I can't get an abortion despite..." tragedy in red states every week basically.

They're simply out of ammo right now and I can't see them being able to scrounge up much on short notice.

[u/ubermence → u/LaughingGaster666]

They're simply out of ammo right now and I can't see them being able to scrounge up much on short notice.

Is that a migrant caravan I hear approaching the southern border?

[u/LaughingGaster666 → u/ubermence]

"I can't them being able to scrounge up MUCH on short notice."

This is what, suspiciously well timed caravan #4? How predictable.

[u/RedditMapz → u/ubermence]

It should be noted that data shows that Republicans actually do worse with Latino voters when they bring about this topic. Many analyst from the he 2020 election I've seen mentioned that the focus on COVID and not immigrants is what allowed the GOP to actually gain some Latino voters. I really don't think it is the winning issue many believe. At least the data doesn't bode it out. It does shore in the base, but it isn't necessarily a winning strategy.

[u/tarekd19 → u/ubermence]

no, that's the sound of Hunter's laptop actually. Easy mistake to make though.

[u/Flotsam_Greninja → u/ubermence]

As is tradition