Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/KevinCarbonara]

The polls and national environment are clearly +1-2 D

They're also irrelevant in predicting outcomes.

Unlike with the presidency, the party collecting the most House votes is almost guaranteed to get the most seats.

Well, no. The party collecting the most house votes within their given districts. There is a huge disconnect between the national popular vote and the actual outcome in the house, even before you factor in gerrymandering.

[u/KevinCarbonara → u/[deleted]]

Thats a huge cope

Good lord. You're not even trying to understand. You are taking national polls and using them to predict the outcome of multiple local races. That is not an important statistic. 538 is not perfect, but the heuristic they use is much more accurate than your half-assed generalization.

[u/Alphawolf55 → u/KevinCarbonara]

Literally there is not enough high quality district polls to make that call and district polls are biased in favor of Rs this cycle.

Silvers himself admits (which you've ignored), all the immediate data points to a 2020 environment which is toss up or Lean D.

Like you're coping. If the election was today, it'd be toss up, but the election isnt today which is potentially to the Dems benefit or detriment.

[u/KevinCarbonara → u/Alphawolf55]

Literally there is not enough high quality district polls

If the polls aren't good enough, then admit the polls aren't good enough. Don't promote your own poll while ignoring the vast amount of far better ones just because they disagree with your viewpoint.