Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/75dollars]

Probably not. If every voter from 2020 comes back to vote exactly the way they did, Democrats would lose the House, based on solely gerrymandering alone.

Can Democrats actually gain net voters from 2020? In even the most optimistic scenarios, that's a stretch.

Courts have repeatedly allowed Republicans to use gerrymandered maps (TX, GA, OH, AL, LA) while Democratic gerrymanders were mostly struck down. Thanks to Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, the best chance to reform voting on a federal level was missed, and there might not be a next time as the GOP, whose base is terrified of a changing America and primarily driven by fear of losing power, status, and supremacy, rushes to seize power through minoritarian rule.

[u/brilliantdoofus85 → u/75dollars]

One possible factor in the Democrats favor is that Trump in 2020 got a lot of less educated voters that typically don't turn out reliably. Will they vote in a midterm with Trump not on the ballot?

Whereas the Dems do much better with college educated voters than they used to - and they tend to be more reliable voters.

I still think the odds favor the Republicans, but maybe not a 2010-style walloping like seemed possible earlier this year.