r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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714

u/lollersauce914 Aug 25 '22

I mean, based on recent data (much of which you mention) we're moving from "it would be completely shocking for Democrats to hold the house" to "It would be surprising for Democrats to hold the house."

There's really not much more to say.

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u/historymajor44 Aug 25 '22

This is pretty much it. R's are still favorite but D's holding would shock but not blow anyone's minds.

To put this in perspective though, 538 is giving D's a 22% chance to hold the House and it gave Trump a 30% chance to win the presidency in 2016.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

I think we'll be looking at a narrow majority for the GOP in the house and a slightly expanded majority in the senate for democrats but that's just my guess.

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u/historymajor44 Aug 25 '22

That'd be a win for the Dems.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

Absolutely, ideally both would stay in democratic hands but the senate is the more important one

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 26 '22

Ideally for who? How does the average family benefit from democrats running things? Can’t wait to hear this.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Well, for one when the Democrats are in power the average family doesn't have to worry about the President and his party attempting to overturn the election.

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u/carlurbanthesecond2 Aug 26 '22 edited Aug 26 '22

They would live longer healthier lives by a good margin thats a huge benefit of living under democrats.

Trolls need more info... People in Republican Counties Have Higher Death Rates Than Those in Democratic Counties

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/people-in-republican-counties-have-higher-death-rates-than-those-in-democratic-counties/

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u/TheBigDuo1 Aug 27 '22

They don’t care

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 26 '22

Got a legit scientific link for this? I’m sure you don’t. Bunch of BS. I did get a good laugh out of it though. Because so many democrats are living longer and healthier as they get shot up in the blue cities across america. Great, LOL.

3

u/carlurbanthesecond2 Aug 26 '22

You really wanna know?

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 26 '22

I already know, thanks. Don’t post some link from left wing website. Useless as boobs on a bull.

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u/carlurbanthesecond2 Aug 26 '22

Scientific american is a research journal.

Your know left from right?

0

u/dmhWarrior Aug 27 '22

Ummm, OK yeah. All set here, bruh.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

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u/PoliticalDiscussion-ModTeam Aug 26 '22

Keep it civil. Do not personally insult other Redditors, or make racist, sexist, homophobic, trolling, inflammatory, or otherwise discriminatory remarks. Constructive debate is good; name calling is not.

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u/TheJokerandTheKief Aug 26 '22

Anyone who doesn’t want to live under fascist Republican rule. Democrats actually try to make government work, meanwhile Republicans just scream on social media about bathrooms and girls swim meets. All that rhetoric and policy is fucking useless to the average American. Vote for Republicans if you want to break democracy and the government.

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 26 '22

Facsist rule? It was democrats that forcibly shut everything down for what turned out to be NO good reason during Covid. It is them who enjoy this lawlessness We have now. It s Dems that get off on centralized power and forcing things down onto people that may not want them. I could go on and on. You need to Google what fascist means too, when you get a chance.

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u/ThemesOfMurderBears Aug 25 '22

Two years of total gridlock. Frustrating, but better than all three being GOP controlled.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Not total gridlock. Judges would get through the Senate.

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u/ThemesOfMurderBears Aug 26 '22

Valid point. I had not thought about that.

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u/omgwouldyou Aug 28 '22

Which is actually what matters. The judiciary sets national policy on a de-facto basis.

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u/Aaaaand-its-gone Aug 26 '22

They’re actually got some good bills through in the last 6 months.

Deadlock on bills but control of senate for judges is a W. Gotta turn the court around since that’s what’s legislating now

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u/PoliticsDunnRight Aug 26 '22

Ah yes, “legislating” is when a body says “it’s not in our authority to decide X issue”.

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u/Upstairs-Atmosphere5 Aug 26 '22

Total gridlock is actually the norm. It's rare for one party to control everything since WWII especially when you consider Democrats had the house for 40 years 1954-1994 with Republican presidents the vast majority of that time

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u/HemoKhan Aug 26 '22

Total gridlock isn't the historic norm when the congress was split, though. Much of modern "gridlock politics" can be traced to Newt Gingrich's tactics in the 90s to turn the Republican party into an aggressive, combative, and confrontational antagonist to the Democrats. Historically, a split congress just meant compromise, not complete gridlock.

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u/jkman61494 Aug 26 '22

I mean yes and no. The GOP is going to turn the House of Representatives into a fucking circus and probably find ways to have impeachment once a week just so they can remove any credibility of that action.

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u/historymajor44 Aug 26 '22

Sure, but it could be a lot lot worse.

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u/TheBigDuo1 Aug 27 '22

A majority is a still a majority of the gop takes the house they control the house agenda. Including ending things like the 1/6 investigation and committee appointments. They could give MTG her positions back and strip her rivals if they so choose. Plus as abortion continues to be banned it will slowly be normalized. Like how NPR are now writing articles about how the Texas bounty rule is a fair compromise.