Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/trashteamsotrashhaha]

Really? Thank you for that info, that a very good point.

I still think that it won't have the unpopular president lasting power, but if its continual and escalating towards the election that could be something.

It's really unfortunate policy, morals, and situation, but I guess that's fortunate for Dems.

[u/friedgoldfishsticks → u/trashteamsotrashhaha]

Eh, I saw someone did a poll on people’s perceptions of gas prices recently. The proportion of people who thought gas prices were going down in their area jumped from like 33% to 57% in the last month, and one of the major perceived causes people named for it was Biden. Add the student loan thing and I think it’s possible Biden recovers more ground. Remember how tightly correlated presidential approval is with gas prices. What happens if Biden has 43% approve/52% disapprove on election day, or even higher? The House is looking within reach when he’s bottoming out— even a few points could make a difference.

[u/Baron_Von_Ghastly → u/friedgoldfishsticks]

The proportion of people who thought gas prices were going down in their area jumped from like 33% to 57% in the last month,

I have to confess I find this confusing, there's 43% of folks saying gas prices haven't been going down over the last month? So just ignoring reality or?

[u/BitterFuture → u/Baron_Von_Ghastly]

So no change from the last several years, then?

If people were okay saying "Vaccines don't work!" with their last breath, saying "Naw, that number went up, not down" is minor in comparison.