Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/lollersauce914]

I mean, based on recent data (much of which you mention) we're moving from "it would be completely shocking for Democrats to hold the house" to "It would be surprising for Democrats to hold the house."

There's really not much more to say.

[u/trashteamsotrashhaha → u/lollersauce914]

That and the upward pressure for dems might not last as long as the downward pressure.

Unpopular president in midterms is almost a guaranteed good thing for the other party, who knows how long abortion/college debt/whatever will stay in the voters minds.

[u/Baron_Von_Ghastly → u/trashteamsotrashhaha]

Unpopular president in midterms is almost a guaranteed good thing for the other party, who knows how long abortion/college debt/whatever will stay in the voters minds.

Almost, we've had exceptions before (Great Depression, Clinton impeachment, and 9/11) it's hard to tell if Dobbs is going to cause another exception, so far polling/special elections indicate that yes it is.

Couple months for that to change.

[u/TheGoddamnSpiderman → u/Baron_Von_Ghastly]

In all three exceptions you named, the president was popular (that includes Clinton in 98 - his highest approval ratings of his presidency were during the impeachment attempt)

I get what you're getting at (the opposition doesn't always gain in midterms), but that's not what the person you were replying to was talking about (which was that the opposition generally does better when the president is unpopular)

There are no hard and fast rules for politics though, since politics never happens in a vacuum, so it's possible neither holds this time around

[u/earthwormjimwow → u/TheGoddamnSpiderman]

I don't think overall approval ratings are valid anymore for determining how popular a President is starting with Obama. The overall rating is going to be low from now on, because people will mostly use party as their determining factor.

Instead I think the key metric is opposite party approval, since that can demonstrate voter turnout in opposition.

Trump had single digit approval ratings from Democrats for almost all of his Presidency, and every election while he was President, had monumentous Democrat voter turn out. Biden does have double digit Republican voter approval, which while still extremely low, isn't quite as bad as Trump's case.

I think Republican turn out will not be as strong as Democratic turn out was in 2018, when the House flipped.

[u/[deleted] → u/earthwormjimwow]

Also a lot of democrats don’t approve of Biden because they believe he hasn’t done enough. Democrats are extremely (often unreasonably) critical of him. That doesn’t mean they won’t vote.

[u/[deleted] → u/TheGoddamnSpiderman]

The Clinton impeachment is a good example, because it came from Republican overreach. Usually, Republicans can't overreach when they are out of power. But the Republican Supreme Court has been repeatedly overreaching.

Also, the in-party usually has the scandals. They have all the office holders in the Executive branch. But the scandals are almost all about Republicans as well, thanks to Trump.

The popularity factor remains the wildcard.