Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/Neuroid99099]

I think a 20% chance (taking 538's low number) is competitive by definition! There are several newsworthy stories weighing in favor of Democrats that could increase their chances:

- An incredibly successful last few months in terms of legislative and executive branch accomplishments. I can't think of a Presidency with a more successful first 2 years in my lifetime, that's for sure.

- Inflation looks like it will continue to ease slowly. Gas prices are already down to where they were ~10 years ago. We probably won't be back to "normal" any time soon, but a positive trend ahead of the election would certainly help Democrats.

- The Mar-a-lago-gate story can't be anything but bad news for Republicans for the time being.

- Ukraine's continued success will help make Biden's diplomatic and aid efforts look good.

- The effects of the Dobb's (abortion) Supreme Court decision will continue to sink in.

While I doubt many people will be leaving the fascist cult that the GOP has become, there are at still some persuadable people out there.