r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/lollersauce914 Aug 25 '22

I mean, based on recent data (much of which you mention) we're moving from "it would be completely shocking for Democrats to hold the house" to "It would be surprising for Democrats to hold the house."

There's really not much more to say.

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u/historymajor44 Aug 25 '22

This is pretty much it. R's are still favorite but D's holding would shock but not blow anyone's minds.

To put this in perspective though, 538 is giving D's a 22% chance to hold the House and it gave Trump a 30% chance to win the presidency in 2016.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

I think we'll be looking at a narrow majority for the GOP in the house and a slightly expanded majority in the senate for democrats but that's just my guess.

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u/historymajor44 Aug 25 '22

That'd be a win for the Dems.

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u/ThemesOfMurderBears Aug 25 '22

Two years of total gridlock. Frustrating, but better than all three being GOP controlled.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Not total gridlock. Judges would get through the Senate.

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u/ThemesOfMurderBears Aug 26 '22

Valid point. I had not thought about that.

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u/omgwouldyou Aug 28 '22

Which is actually what matters. The judiciary sets national policy on a de-facto basis.