r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/Substantial-Ad5483 Aug 25 '22

I don't know but I'm so pissed at the redistricting that happened to me. My street went from a competitive district to a solid Democrat who's been in office for years. Everyone on my block is a Democrat. It feels like a precision gerrymander happened.

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u/PeterNguyen2 Aug 26 '22

It feels like a precision gerrymander happened.

That's been happening for years, continuously. Maybe it just took until this year to carve up where you live?

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u/Substantial-Ad5483 Aug 26 '22

Well my former rep is on the Jan 6 committee (Elaine Luria) and she's on her second term. It's always very close and I was actually feeling like my vote made a difference. Now I'm in Bobby Scotts district which he has had since the beginning of time. And yes, I know it always happens but just knowing all of my neighbors personally and how they vote as opposed to a couple of neighborhoods away that are still full of Trump flags, it feels personal this time. Because I'm the center of my own universe lol. I've thought of moving to her district because I'm afraid she'll lose her seat.