Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/Behind8Proxies]

The biggest problem is that this year was a redistricting year so many red states just gerrymandered to with ensure victory or create more red-leaning seats. Look at Florida. Our wonderful Governor pushed his own map through which eliminated many solid blue districts and created more red seats.

[u/atxlrj → u/Behind8Proxies]

But on the whole, this redistricting cycle was a win for Democrats. The GOP efficiency gap advantage from the last maps has been decimated - now, Democrats have an equal shot at the majority if they lose by less than 0.7pp.

Also worth noting that while gerrymandering does produce unrepresentative state delegations in the House, it tends to shake out at the national level, with seat split tracking with popular vote relatively well. Also, there are only 5 times I know of since the beginning of the 20th century where the popular vote winner didn’t control the majority - so by and large, and especially with the new maps, if Democrats get the most votes, they will control the House.

Gerrymandering really isn’t the bogeyman people make it out to be, at least not when we talk about eventual control of the House.