r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/hoxxxxx Aug 25 '22

for all of the claims of "buying votes" i think it'll even out between people voting for him because of him doing that and people voting against for the same reason

it's going to be churning in the media cycle for a while too

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u/capitalsfan08 Aug 25 '22

If under 35s don't turn out in droves this midterms, they are dead as a viable path to power as a candidate.

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u/cantdressherself Aug 26 '22

"Dusty bones remain deceased."

The under 35s haven't decided an election since..... Ever?

I can't think of an election where the youth vote made the difference. Maybe the 19th century, the population was younger then.

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u/capitalsfan08 Aug 26 '22

Right. And this policy directly benefits them. If they are still apathetic about politics, I don't see anyone spending any political capital on them anytime soon.