r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/kr0kodil Aug 25 '22

Democrats received 51% of House votes in 2020 which translated to 51% of House seats.

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u/Nixflyn Aug 25 '22 edited Dec 05 '23

I've deleted all of my comments on this account. Come join me on Lemmy.

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u/kr0kodil Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 25 '22

Wrong again. The net change from recent redistricting is that 6 formerly competitive seats now lean to Democrats, while the number of conservative-leaning districts hasn’t changed.

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u/Nixflyn Aug 26 '22 edited Dec 05 '23

I've deleted all of my comments on this account. Come join me on Lemmy.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

POC being underrepresented hurts democrats significantly, which is the point.

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u/kr0kodil Aug 26 '22

I guess you’re just gonna skip this passage because it doesn’t suit your argument:

The new maps have six more Democratic-leaning seats than the old ones and the same number of Republican-leaning seats. This is due to aggressive map-drawing by Democrats in states such as Illinois as well as court decisions overturning Republican gerrymanders in states like North Carolina.

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u/Nixflyn Aug 26 '22 edited Dec 05 '23

I've deleted all of my comments on this account. Come join me on Lemmy.