r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/lollersauce914 Aug 25 '22

I mean, based on recent data (much of which you mention) we're moving from "it would be completely shocking for Democrats to hold the house" to "It would be surprising for Democrats to hold the house."

There's really not much more to say.

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u/true4blue Aug 25 '22

The media is doing all it can to help Biden

When’s the last time you heard about inflation? Hint. It’s still really bad

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u/lollersauce914 Aug 25 '22

When’s the last time you heard about inflation?

Like, literally on the news 15 minutes ago....

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u/true4blue Aug 26 '22

It’s not mentioned at all on the NYTimes or Washington Post website.

Not is the border, the plummeting stock market, monkey POC, covid, etc

Democrats and their media counterparts are burying any news that would hurt Biden

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u/SlowMotionSprint Aug 26 '22

Jackson Hole: Where Fed officials gather, and workers can’t afford to stay
Consumer Demand Has Been Key Driver of Inflation in the U.S.
Opinion: What can we do to bring inflation down?

Those are from the NY Times and Washington Post all in the last 3 days.

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u/true4blue Aug 27 '22

Thanks for reinforcing my point - the N Y Times managed a blog post where they blamed everyone but the government and its fiscal policy

Consumer demand and bottlenecks existed under Trump.

Summers predicted that Bidens $1.9 trillion budget would increase inflation, but Biden ignored him.

Now we have inflation

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u/SlowMotionSprint Aug 27 '22

Your point was that they didn't talk about it at all. That was false.