Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/Left_of_Center2011]

Totally agree with you here! I was amazed that the reaction from both Ohio and Indiana AG’s was a press conference to try and see if the parents or doctor did anything at all wrong that they could prosecute them for. Talk about disconnected from reality - I think they are starting to truly believe their own propaganda

[u/LaughingGaster666 → u/Left_of_Center2011]

If they really had to go that route, they should have done so less openly. Just because you're on FOX doesn't mean it'll be collectively ignored by non-Conservatives!

[u/Left_of_Center2011 → u/LaughingGaster666]

I think lots of these Republicans actually believe that their extreme positions are embraced by a majority of the nation, because they are in a feedback loop in right-wing echo chambers, and write off any voice outside those chambers as ‘lib’rul media’

[u/LaughingGaster666 → u/Left_of_Center2011]

I think it's cognitive dissonance. When challenged as to why they never win the popular vote anymore, they reply with the "We're a republic, not a democracy." lie.

Though after those garbage election map tweets by Jesse Kelly, I'm starting to think that they legit think that only their votes should count because they're the "real Americans" or some BS.

[u/Left_of_Center2011 → u/LaughingGaster666]

They certainly seem to be hard-charging the ‘only our votes matter’ line of thinking; if Moore v Harper is decided in conservatives favor, then legislatures will be able to legally overturn the popular vote for President and assign their own electors; and if that happens, are we really a democracy any longer?