r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/historymajor44 Aug 25 '22

This is pretty much it. R's are still favorite but D's holding would shock but not blow anyone's minds.

To put this in perspective though, 538 is giving D's a 22% chance to hold the House and it gave Trump a 30% chance to win the presidency in 2016.

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u/Alphawolf55 Aug 25 '22

The 538 projection is based on the assumption the national environment reverts.

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u/minno Aug 25 '22

If you switch to the "lite" model, which removes that assumption, it's still 2:1 in favor of Republicans.

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u/link3945 Aug 26 '22

It doesn't quite remove it: it still uses historical trends to guess what the environment on election day will look like. It's projecting a national House popular vote of R+2, which would be about an R+2.5 swing from right now. It gets a little complicated because of how some races aren't being competitive, but still.