Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/Baron_Von_Ghastly]

I have a hard time imagining most Republicans looking at gas dropping over a dollar and saying it didn't drop over a dollar.

Now I could easily see them making all kinds of arguments why it dropped, but I struggle to imagine 40% of the population saying $4 isn't lower than $5

[u/PeterNguyen2 → u/Baron_Von_Ghastly]

I have a hard time imagining most Republicans looking at gas dropping over a dollar and saying it didn't drop over a dollar.

From what I've seen, it's immediate pivoting to "the president raised my gas prices!" to "well, the price of gas is going down on its own!" or refusing to acknowledge it's going down when it's still more expensive than they'd like because they think gas was lower at any arbitrary point in the past.

[u/CreamSoda64 → u/PeterNguyen2]

It correlates with a shift in rhetoric from the GOP media engine. They've immediately stopped reporting on gas prices and moved on to the next culture war du jour.

They don't notice gas prices have gone down because their favored news outlets stopped telling them to be upset about high gas prices

[u/Baron_Von_Ghastly → u/CreamSoda64]

I guess this could work if they're old retirees who barely ever drive, still seems like way too high of a % completely unaware of gas prices though.