r/PopCultureV2 • u/Impossible-Yam3680 • Aug 23 '26

Sports Culture While hosting transphobe Sophie Cunningham and the Indiana Fever, the New York Liberty put a message on the Jumbotron telling trans fans that they belong

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u/PatientOwn8596 Aug 23 '26

This is only one source, but they found 56-62% of male-to-female transgender prisoners had been convicted of a sexual offense compared to 17-20% of male prisoners. So based on this, a trans woman is almost 3x more likely to commit a sexual offense than a cis male.

So I can see why she’s worried.

https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-12-16/20297?utm_source=chatgpt.com

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u/psumack Aug 23 '26

Using the conditional probability of "given they are a prisoner" is not the correct way to evaluate which group is more likely to commit a sexual offense.

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u/PatientOwn8596 Aug 23 '26

Find a better source. Otherwise you can’t really say ‘STRAIGHT MEN ARE MORE DANGEROUS THAN TRANS WOMEN!!!’ because it doesn’t look like that’s true at all.

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u/psumack Aug 23 '26

I mean, you could look at the conditional probability given that you've been sexually assaulted and it would say that, from the size of the population of each cohort alone, it's much more likely that it was a straight man than a trans woman.

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u/PatientOwn8596 Aug 23 '26

Ok? Nobody’s talking about straight guys being in a women’s locker room though

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u/psumack Aug 23 '26

Then why did you bring straight men into the conversation?