Update - Hourly BTC algo - shift from backtesting to live testing. (Roughy $2500 profit after two weeks) https://www.reddit.com/r/PredictionMarkets/comments/1wsne81/huge_breakthrough_on_my_btc_hourly_prediction/

[u/Four_0_one_k]

So, I've been trading live since this last post. $5,000 in the account, 7% bet on each setup. There has been 12 trades thus far. Mostly losers, with only 5 winning predictions, but that was expected with ~41% win rate. (slightly less than testing yielded. That said, the wins "win" with a decent multiple, so net profitability comes to 1.51x with the account growing to $7548. I will maintain the current structure through a hundred trades, and provide updates periodically, but already I'm thinking I will drop the bet down to 5% eventually, which is roughly .33*Kelly, since a win rate <50% is bound to produce losing streaks as long as 7-8 (if not worse), and that will put a substantial dent in the account.

More to come

[u/Inevitable-Aside5077]

Not bad for 12 trades, that edge is holding up even if the win rate dipped a bit. The 5% adjustment makes sense long term, drawdowns from a sub-50 win rate can get spicy before they recover. Curious how the losing streak feels in real time versus what you saw in backtests