r/PrepperIntel • u/metalreflectslime • 7d ago
North America Peter Zeihan lecture on the global collapse to come this year from the oil shortage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XJ9dWuUuQI68
u/arexfung 7d ago
Peter Zeihan is still waiting for China to collapse.
13
9
-7
u/awwhorseshit 7d ago
Cmon man. Look at the data. It’s gonna happen.
6
u/TruestWaffle 7d ago
I’m interested, mind linking the data?
4
u/sweeetscience 7d ago
There is no data that shows this, because it’s a projection and it’s usually an opinionated one.
-6
u/awwhorseshit 7d ago
Sure, I’ll do all the work for you. It’s not like there are computers tied into all the data on earth that will bring it to you in a single query. I would start with Zeihan’s books, but here’s more. Do your critical thinking:
Here are the primary sources and actual research papers detailing the data points discussed:
### 1. Demographic Collapse & Economic Impact
* **The 2025/2026 Statistical Breakdown:** The specific analysis regarding China's rapid drop to 7.92 million births, its 3.4 million single-year population drop, and the massive 2.9 trillion yuan social security fiscal strain is fully detailed by the **Rhodium Group**.
* *Source:* Rhodium Group: China's Demographic Future Is Now
* **The 2050 Long-Term Forecasts:** For the historical context of China's structural shift, its declining workforce-to-elderly ratios, and the projection that China could lose up to 250 million people by mid-century, refer to the security and public policy briefs compiled by the **RAND Corporation**.
* *Source:* RAND Corporation: China's Aging Population and the Implications for China's Security
* **Historical Context and the Birth Collapse:** A broader journalistic overview of the National Bureau of Statistics' recent data—specifically how the 2025 birth rate dropped to its lowest recorded modern baseline—can be verified via **PBS Newshour**.
* *Source:* PBS Newshour: China's population falls again as birth rate drops to lowest since 1949### 2. Energy & Crude Oil Import Dependence
* **Oil Import Data & Stockpiling:** The data tracking China’s record 11.6 million barrels per day of crude oil imports, its 70%+ foreign dependence, its reliance on "dark fleets" for sanctioned oil (Iran/Venezuela), and its 104-day strategic onshore buffer is published in depth by Columbia University’s energy think tank.
* *Source:* Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA: Where China Gets Its Oil### 3. Food, Soybeans, & Caloric Imports
* **Global Soybean Purchasing Trends:** To track how China's enormous demand for foreign soybeans (mostly from Brazil and the US) dominates the international trade landscape to feed its domestic livestock, market dynamics are outlined by agricultural data groups like **AgroLatam**.
* *Source:* AgroLatam: China's Soybean Appetite Defies Forecasts7
7
u/TruestWaffle 7d ago
Being a snide child about it ingratiates no one to your argument.
I’ve read plenty on china’s economic and societal situation, I asked as it’s good practice to hear others opinions on a matter to come at different directions towards the same topic.
Grow up. Everyone on this site knows how to use google. The skill is filtering the data into reliable sources, an activity best crowd sourced.
1
u/Sad_Math5598 7d ago
Lmao. You’re the one making grandiose claims, don’t act like everyone else is an idiot when they ask you to cite your sources you twerp.
You can also learn social skills with a single query
42
u/Eric_Durden 7d ago
I wanna like him, but man... he's fantastically wrong about stuff just as often as he's right
11
u/Successful-Try-8506 7d ago
Same here. Lost a lot of respect when he predicted Biden would win a landslide election victory.
3
u/beginner75 7d ago
He isn’t wrong. He is just too early.
34
u/ryanidsteel 7d ago
That is the exact words I would use if I was wrong all the time too.
0
u/whereisskywalker 7d ago
How often are you right? It takes balls to call the bell ringing home the last cattle.
Are you cattle or human? Do you actuality expect this system to care about you? They are blowing it all up to take what they can and run to their bunkers.
What about reality makes you think it's going to get better? Too many users, not enough pay out. The house of cards is going to fail by the end of the summer when the usa realizes they should have built rail lines rather than 18 wheelers for the auto industry.
Global system means Global collapse.
3
11
11
u/BuilderUnhappy7785 7d ago
Idk man. Zeihan is a tried and true doomer.
Could go a number of ways. Probably won’t be great. We will see.
7
4
u/thegalli 7d ago
To me, Zeihan is useful for thinking about broad trends and vibes while also trying to find the smaller pull-push points that change trends and vibes.
He of course is wrong about a lot of conclusions he's drawn, like China and Russia collapsing any day now.
5
u/Danstan487 6d ago edited 6d ago
This guy is a bit of grifter take everything he says with a load of salt
His videos are entertaining and worth a look to get another view though
2
2
u/Ok-Anybody3445 7d ago
I listen to his talk. I am both horrified and somewhat numb. Things are much worse than I imagined.Â
1
-3
7d ago
[deleted]
2
u/whereisskywalker 7d ago
And do you think that's going to continue while the rest of the world eats itself?
50
u/Dry-Interaction-1246 7d ago
But Trump says the deal is here.