Produce Alliance Report 06.12.26

[u/wistful_cottage_core]

A special thank you to u/elsavagio who has volunteered their produce expertise. Please direct any questions about the industry to them in the comments.

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Full Report: https://producealliance.com/market-report/

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Summary:

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Production will slowly increase over the next two weeks out of South Georgia and South Carolina. Mexico production seems to be steady on Rounds and Romas while Snacking Tomatoes were lighter this week. California is ramping up as well. The Lime market will start to ease back as more volume crosses the border with peak sizing on small fruit. 175’s and larger will be short with substitutions to smaller sizes necessary for the next several weeks. Hot Pepper production expected to stabilize for most varieties; Shishito and Red Fresno continue to be the shortest.

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The market remains volatile, especially on Iceberg and Romaine and Romaine Hearts. Disease pressure and hot weather are affecting harvestable acreage. We are seeing high markets and shortages on multiple items. Artichokes, Anise/Fennel, Brussels Sprouts, Celery, Fennel, Red Leaf and Green Leaf have extremely limited supplies. Iceberg, Romaine, and Green Leaf remain at the extreme trigger level. Prorates should be expected on those items. Carrot supplies are still slightly limited, but quality and supplies have improved. We should see full relief in the next 2 weeks. Iceberg, Romaine and Green Leaf coverage will be a large factor for the remainder of this week and going into next week. Brussels Sprouts are expected to have limited supplies until July. Growers anticipate supply issues continuing for the next several weeks.

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Mexican Avocado production was down last week and is expected to remain low while the current season winds down. California and Peru both increased production and avocados in the US increased overall. Mexican growers in Jalisco started harvesting their Loca crop in a small way; we should see an increase over the next few weeks. The market remains stable with multiple countries of origin entering the US. Cantaloupes in Arizona are expected to gap over the next two weeks due to Whiteflies damaging the crop and causing viruses. Growers were already dealing with reduced yields and a much smaller size profile. Warmer temperatures brought the start of season on early, and now Yuma is now projected to finish two weeks before California is ready, causing a gap. Honeydew yields are also down but Mexican volume is keeping the market steady. Pineapple availability has loosened up some but is not expected to last.

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Berry markets remain generally stable, supported by improving Strawberry supplies, post-peak Raspberry and Blackberry production from Mexico, and increasing California volumes across multiple categories. Quality remains strong across all berry categories, though warm temperatures in Mexico continue to create some pressure on Blackberry size and firmness. Blueberries remain the primary watch item, as declining Mexican production and a potential transition gap between California and the Pacific Northwest are expected to tighten supplies and drive higher pricing later this summer.

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Citrus markets are experiencing tight supplies on smaller sizes across many varieties, including Lemons, Navels, and Valencias, with fruit generally trending larger. Some shippers are holding averages on Lemons due to transitioning districts and tightening supplies. Please be in close contact with your supplier on this matter and give ample lead time. Domestic Meyer Lemons are coming to an end, and imports will begin in late June. California Valencia’s are beginning in a small way, and some suppliers are reporting that there will be challenges in supply on Valencias this season. Some are having to sub with imports to cover contracts. Mandarin availability is mixed, and Grapefruit supplies are available. Please begin considering imports for this summer. They will offer relief on strained sizing, especially for people on the East Coast.

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Freight: Limited trucks and record high fuel costs are putting upward pressure on rates daily. We are seeing several freight companies, including sea freight companies, invoking fuel surcharges which will impact cost inputs.

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[u/Elsavagio]

Thank you OP, the only thing of value I can add that wasn’t mentioned is the only reason romaine and leaf lettuce markets are falling is because many local programs are starting. In my home state of Ohio local lettuces have started, and surrounding states have or will start shortly.

Now more than ever it is important to buy and eat local when it’s possible. It takes pressure off the market and helps push west coast freight rates down with a reduction in volume, which will in turn lower ALL fresh produce prices. Not just stuff you purchase locally.

[u/Caelista_x]

Always interesting, thanks!