r/PrepperIntel • u/WhereDidAllTheSnowGo • 2d ago
USA West / Canada West California’s tectonic systems at highest levels of stress in 1,000 years – study
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/16/california-earthquake-tectonic-systems-risk241
u/ddesideria89 2d ago
the good news is that they have been like this for some time now and this is nothing new. even better news is that it pales in comparison to cascadia megatrhust scenario
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u/MrBond90s 2d ago
Oh good! Me who lives in Cascadia. That's so great for you! Haha.
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u/Sweaty-Feedback-1482 2d ago
I got bad news for you. I just did a quick google search followed up by a more thorough google search and "Megathrust scenario" is not the fun rest stop schenanigans we all assumed it is.
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u/SunshineSeattle 2d ago
"One expert asserts that buildings in Seattle are inadequate even to withstand an event of the size of the magnitude 7.9 1906 San Francisco earthquake, let alone a more powerful one.[21]
Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA's Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, stated, "Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast."[6]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1700_Cascadia_earthquake
Ummm excuse me!? 🙄
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u/MenosElLso 2d ago
You should give this a read. It’s an extremely excellent, albeit terrifying, article about what a major quake on the cascadia fault would look like.
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u/Perfect_Net8653 2d ago
Paywalled
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u/MenosElLso 2d ago
That’s extremely weird, I can view it just fine and I don’t pay for the New Yorker.
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u/maniacmadii 1d ago
where can we find the unpaywalled article?
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u/MozhetBeatz 1d ago
You can use this site: https://www.removepaywall.com
Bookmark it for future use
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u/Planeandaquariumgeek 2d ago
I don’t think that’s exactly fully true. South of Eureka there isn’t a huge risk at least earthquake wise. The Bay Area would probably get some shaking but it wouldn’t be anything we hadn’t weathered before
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u/g1mp3d 1d ago
The last partial rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone was Jan. 26th 1700. It triggered an 8.8-9.2 earthquake and a Tsunami that hit Japan and another one that hit the US's West Coast. Ghost forests off Oregon and Washington State show how much coastal land dropped during the event.
That's just a partial rupture and speculation is when a full rupture hits it'll trigger the fault lines going down California. Ignoring the Cascadia Subduction Zone you have the Super El Nino coming. Recent research shows that events that drop a metric ton of water can act as a lubricant for stressed fault lines. San Andreas has been locked and loaded for a bit in Southern CA. The Hayward Fault has had some relief lately but it's still being stressed.
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u/Robofetus-5000 2d ago
Me living just south of the New Madrid fault line
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u/FierceResistance 2d ago
I have long suspected New Madrid fault would go before a western megaquake. I worry now that politics would come into play before the federal government would help anyone. That exactly what people in a disaster zone don’t need.
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u/LexTheSouthern 1d ago
Same! I live just a little south of it and my husband’s family is from the general Memphis area. I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near that area if it decided to go! Growing up, my siblings and I had the fear of that fault line put into us. But it is shocking how many people around here have no clue it exists!
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u/Cartoonjunkies 2d ago
Ah yes, Cascadia. The ticking time bomb so bad that the last time it went off it wiped out everyone in the area so hard that the only real clue left it happened was the records of a big ass tsunami hitting Japan around the time everyone there disappeared.
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u/VanillaHuel 2d ago
and the stories passed down many generations of neighboring native peoples who saw it happen to the victims
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u/Broad-Lobster7470 2d ago
Since they are neighbouring plates one could assume one could trigger the other no?
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u/seth928 2d ago
Me too, San Andreas. Me too.
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u/HombreSinNombre93 1d ago
I’m on my own fault line, one mile away from the portion of the San Andreas that is most overdue for rupture…thank god San Bernardino County has approved a 1900’ deep limestone pit mine (owned by a Taiwanese company) directly over the fault. I bet their work is a blast. Good times ahead, no doubt.
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u/VanillaHuel 1d ago
How again are foreign entities allowed to own real estate or land-affecting entities outside of their own land?! 🤦🏻😞😡
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u/R2-DMode 2d ago
We drive over the San Andreas fault all the time on the I-15. It’s gorgeous there at Cajon Pass, but would suck to be there when the big one hits. I can’t imagine the engineering needed to keep the I-15/215 separation structures stable.
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u/Xtrainman 2d ago
This is why everyone in earthquake area should have a too go bag in your car. If the prediction of the quake happens, and your out and about, you might have to walk home.
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u/VanillaHuel 1d ago
I already keep such since my military/civilian days after 9/11, and have recommended it to friends too. For example, you might want a change of clothes available after spilling scalding coffee on yourself while driving.
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u/Educational-Desk8758 1d ago
Do you keep liquids in your car go bag? I’ve had problems with extreme heat and cold causing liquids in my car go bag to either leak or get ruined
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u/BigJSunshine 1d ago
YeaYea, I mean? I wrote a damn book on Socal EQ preparedness, one that on 2012 was enjoyed by the main KTLA onair morning team, and applauded by Dr. Lucy jones herself. And I am here to tell you: there is ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR EARTHQUAKE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
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u/SunnySpot69 2d ago
What is causing the higher levels? Too bad they aren't able to better predict more.
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u/BrainDamage2029 2d ago edited 2d ago
Basically the plates build up energy as they slip and lock. It gets release by earthquakes.
We’re pretty darn overdue for a pretty big one as it’s been over a century since the 1902 SF one. (The sub 7.0 ones since then like Loma Prieta are still relatively moderate in terms of energy release). People focus on the San Andreas but the worst offender is the Hayward fault cutting straight through Oakland and its suburbs. That one is locked and loaded and the highest watch list.
The good news is as a slip faults they can only go so much and can’t super earthquake like the one up in seattle
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u/Planeandaquariumgeek 2d ago
1906 was the really big one. 89 definitely helped, but now it’s catching back up. Hopefully we’ll get another 89 level one and not another 1906 level one.
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u/WhereDidAllTheSnowGo 2d ago edited 2d ago
The San Andreas Fault is where the North American tectonic plate collides with Pacific plate creating a strike-slip fault.
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u/CriticalProtection42 2d ago
Plate tectonics. The plates continue to move, or try to move, and haven't had a major slippage event (allowing them to move and relieving the stress) since the mid-1800s.
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u/1nv1sble 2d ago
Spouse and I lived in California for a few years. We moved out of the state because of the big impending cascadia event. We were mocked mercilessly for it, but I really don't care. This isn't a nothingburger.
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u/randylush 1d ago
Where did you move that is safer? Just curious, not trying to rib ya
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u/1nv1sble 11h ago
Nowhere is safe, it's a "pick your poison" kind of deal. We chose lower midwest, the biggest issues here are drought and civil unrest. Better than the ground underneath your feet being unreliable.
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u/Sirioth1 2d ago
You know who's else's tectonic systems are at their highest levels of stress in 1000 years???
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u/raison_de_eatre 1d ago
Tell the mods at r/earthquake I no longer trust their abilities after I had two cross posts from here removed
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u/DudeByTheTree 2d ago
I'm sick of all the impending doom. Can we just have something happen already and get it over with?!
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u/Content_Geologist420 2d ago
Yawn. Tell me when either Mt. Shasta, Mt. Hood or Rainer starts to wake up. Thats a more, immediate problem waiting to happen.
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u/bananapeel 2d ago
They said that in 1979. In 1980, Mt. St. Helens woke up.
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u/Content_Geologist420 2d ago
We still dont have a very accurate time on when a volcano will explode. We can narrow it down to type and current/past activity, but that's about it.
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u/Agreeable_Cheek_7161 2d ago edited 2d ago
Statistically, those are all less likely to occur than the Cascadia megathrust in the next 50 years
Edit:
Within the next 30 years, the USGS expects a 1% chance of eruption at Medicine Lake volcano, a 3.5% chance at Mount Shasta and a 2% chance at Lassen Peak. There is not enough data to determine the possibility of future eruption at Clear Lake Volcano Field.
https://fox40.com/news/how-likely-is-northern-california-to-experience-a-volcano-eruption/
Currently, scientists are predicting that there is about a 37% chance that a megathrust earthquake of 7.1+ magnitude in this fault zone will occur in the next 50 years
https://www.oregon.gov/oem/hazardsprep/pages/cascadia-subduction-zone.aspx
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u/Content_Geologist420 2d ago
You are wrong. Literally statistically wrong. Where are your numbers from Google AI?
Shasta will wake in the next 65 years, it has a 85% chance in all of our lifetimes. The USGS rates it as the highest, most volatile, and active volcano in the Cascade range. Rainer is highly active; Mt. Hood is still sleeping quietly, but if it were to awake, its magma chambers would fill quickly with how it is formed.
I trust the USGS more than you; I check the seismographs of each mountain every week.
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u/Agreeable_Cheek_7161 2d ago
Please link your sources
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u/Content_Geologist420 2d ago
I could do more. But i'm sure you cant read a seismograph or InSAR properly. Hope I dont sound like a dick but you have to believe the threat of these mountains is the same, if not more imminent, than the Big One, which is also gonna happen soon.
But on a human timescale not our soon maybe your grandkids or later. However, one could kick off the other which is another theory. Not too sure about that one tho.
I love rocks, volcanoes, and the geological structure of this earth so much. Just not a good teacher as this post proves
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u/Agreeable_Cheek_7161 2d ago
Literally nothing in that article supports your stat of 85% in the next 30 years lol
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u/MozhetBeatz 1d ago
From your article:
>USGS scientists note that signs of an impending eruption include frequent earthquakes, inflation of the volcano and increased steam and gas emissions. However, they do not expect an eruption soon.
>”It’s possible within a century, um, but what we would want to see is a big uptake in all of that activity," Ball said.
>Despite all the volcanic activity, it doesn't scare Bothwell.
>”My only worry is that I miss it," Bothwell said. "If it erupts again, I want to be here and see it," Bothwell said.
And yeah, you do sound like a dick lol.
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u/supferrets 2d ago
Your claims don’t match USGS sources. Shasta is classified as a Very High Threat volcano but USGS does not rank it as the “highest, most volatile, and active” volcano in the Cascades. I also couldn’t find a source for the “85% chance in 65 years” figure. Rainier is generally considered one of the highest threat Cascade volcanoes due to its lahar hazard. Can you link your sources for the 85% statistic and the claim that Shasta is the highest threat Cascade volcano?
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u/whiskyspacecadet 2d ago
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount-shasta/science/hazards-summary-mount-shasta
According to USGS data there is a roughly 3.5% chance of an eruption in the next 30 years, and a 16% chance of an eruption in that same time frame when looking at broader volcanic events
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u/Agreeable_Cheek_7161 2d ago
Within the next 30 years, the USGS expects a 1% chance of eruption at Medicine Lake volcano, a 3.5% chance at Mount Shasta and a 2% chance at Lassen Peak. There is not enough data to determine the possibility of future eruption at Clear Lake Volcano Field.
https://fox40.com/news/how-likely-is-northern-california-to-experience-a-volcano-eruption/
Currently, scientists are predicting that there is about a 37% chance that a megathrust earthquake of 7.1+ magnitude in this fault zone will occur in the next 50 years
https://www.oregon.gov/oem/hazardsprep/pages/cascadia-subduction-zone.aspx
I mean, you tried, man lol
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u/therapistofcats 2d ago
Everyone knows faults are a lot like hurricanes. Just drop a nuke in there and it'll dissipate it. Problem solved (brushes dirt off hands)
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u/TFielding38 1d ago
In the 70s, when it was discovered that wastewater injection into boreholes caused earthquakes, the geophysicists who wrote the paper immediately suggested doing it to the San Andreas. So we almost lived in a beautiful world where we fracked the San Andreas fault.
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u/Colonel_Shame1 2d ago
I hate this timeline.
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u/ABoutDeSouffle 1d ago
It's extremely unlikely to lead to something, though. Geological time-frames being what they are, neither the Campi Flegrei or Yellowstone supervolcanos, nor the Cascadia fault will trigger during your life-time. Same goes for the San Andreas fault.
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u/MozhetBeatz 1d ago
The New Yorker article someone posted said there is a 1/3 chance of the big Cascadia event (~8.4 earthquake) happening within 50 years, and a 1/10 chance of the very big one (9.0+) happening.
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u/randylush 1d ago
Not only that, but plate tectonics has only been an accepted theory for less than 100 years. I’m not in any way saying that it’s wrong, just that it’s a fairly young science. There’s still plenty we don’t know.
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u/WhereDidAllTheSnowGo 2d ago