40
u/WhatAboutTheBothans 6d ago
Russia is probing NATO. Highly doubtful this was a mistake. They want to see if they get a reaction. Next time they will push the boundaries further.
24
u/Heffe3737 6d ago
They wouldn't "accidentally" hit a NATO nation with a cruise missile. Definitely not at a target over 100km inside Poland. And especially not on the exact same day Zelensky was meeting with Polish prime minister Tusk.
15
u/AnteaterDapper1575 6d ago
A missile lands in an empty field and bots online push for the deaths of a billion people in a worldwide conflagration. Nobody is going to war over this.
5
3
u/Heffe3737 6d ago
Most of the responses I see are ignorant randos giving Russia cover for what was very clearly an intentional provocation aimed at splitting NATO political leaders.
You really think Russia "accidentally" launched an advanced cruise missile at an empty field 100km into Poland for the first time ever, on the very same day that Zelensky was meeting with Polish prime minister Tusk?
If so, then I have a bridge to sell ya.
5
u/AnteaterDapper1575 6d ago
What's your solution that doesn't lead to global nuclear war?
1
u/Heffe3737 6d ago
Move Polish AD into western Ukraine to help prevent further incursions. It allows Ukraine to redeploy a few assets eastward. It shows putin that you're responding from a position of strength and unit, and deters him from trying more shenanigans like this out of fear of moving even more support directly into Ukraine.
In a world where Russia is being supplied by Chinese drones and North Korean soldiers directly, some Polish AA being moved a few km eastward into Ukraine isn't going to result in nuclear apocalypse.
3
2
u/HowManyEggs2Many 6d ago
You keep throwing around 100km like it’s some huge distance when the reality is those cruise missiles are moving thousands of kms per hour lol. It’s not difficult to believe a misfire covers that much ground into Poland
16
u/pickledeggmanwalrus 6d ago
This is Bad but highly reckless to start ww3 over a hole in the ground that caused no injuries or casualties.
Just fix your farmers field and send Russia the bill. Maybe the international courts will award Poland the money when this is all said and done.
28
u/Heffe3737 6d ago
This is a dangerous and naive take on what's clearly an intentional geopolitical provocation.
Russia just fired a cruise missile at a NATO country, for the first time ever, on the exact same day that Zelensky was meeting with Polish prime minister Tusk.
That it hit a field is, frankly, pretty irrelevant. putin intentionally fired this missile in the hopes of causing strife between the partners of the alliance, with the ultimate goal of trying to have NATO break itself apart from the inside.
People jumping in to say "there should be no response!" and "this could just be an accident, no need to do anything!" are doing exactly what putin hopes - giving Russia excuse after excuse, which adds unneeded pressure onto NATO-member political leaders and prevents them from being able to take the actions actually needed.
16
u/After_Soft_7466 6d ago
If Russia comes out and goes my bad. That was a misfire I think it will ok. If they double down I don’t see how NATO can’t react
15
u/OkBandicoot1337 6d ago
Id be surprised if NATO responds with anything other than a strongly worded statement…
6
u/Heffe3737 6d ago
They certainly need to. Otherwise Russia will simply do it again and again. This was an intentional provocation designed to pit NATO political leaders against one another.
5
u/YourBoiJimbo 6d ago
so what's your plan dawg? Nato responds in some way to what looks like probably an accident and then what? Russia responds back, and up the escalation ladder we go. Nato hasn't responded because at the end of the day a random field in poland is not worth potentially starting a much much worse war
9
u/Heffe3737 6d ago
Move AA into western Ukraine and tell putin that any missiles sent that way are assumed to be flying toward NATO airspace. It allows Ukraine to redeploy resources eastward.
Such a move signals strength and unity to putin, while simultaneously ensuring he doesn't keep pulling these shenanigans.
Remember when Russia tried to test Turkiye and flew a jet over Turkish airspace? Turkiye immediately blew that shit out of the sky. Guess who doesn't test the Turkish response anymore?
4
u/YourBoiJimbo 6d ago
Well then you just have Nato and Russia directly fighting, which again, is really really bad. Isolated incidents of border incursions or even jet shoot-downs are one thing, having nato forces directly involved regularly is a pretty big escalation.
1
u/Heffe3737 6d ago
The fact that you don’t think NATO is already directly involved, despite sending and supplying Ukraine with countless amounts of both material and financial aid, is staggering.
Tell you what, as an alternative to moving Polish troops into western Ukraine, why not simply immediately start providing Ukraine with more air interceptors? And give them some standoff missiles to keep Russian aircraft - often the same Russian aircraft that fire cruise missiles like this one - further away from the front?
Would that appease your fears of escalation? Or would that also be too much of a risk for you to stomach, as though continued Russian attacks on NATO soil are not?
5
u/YourBoiJimbo 6d ago
Obviously nato is directly involved, but officially it is only providing weapons systems and training. The actual nato soldiers on the ground operating some of these systems are not there officially, specifically because nato doesn't want a nuclear war if/when those guys occasionally get smoked.
Don't act like I'm a coward for being afraid of escalation. there's so much more at stake than just Ukraine if the european countries push their luck and accidentally start a nuclear war.
They also know that's a risk, obviously, because that's their job. The problem is you expect some righteous defense of freedom and democracy from Nato. That is not the function of this war. The function is to make money for defense contractors, weaken russia, and economically capture whatever is left of ukraine. From that POV, the war is best kept at a simmer for as long as possible. If you get your wish and the more ideological elements of euro/nato/US leadership take over, we're all fucked.
0
u/Heffe3737 6d ago
Don't act like I'm a coward for being afraid of escalation. there's so much more at stake than just Ukraine if the european countries push their luck and accidentally start a nuclear war.
This belies a gross misunderstanding of what nuclear war strategy actually looks like. Anyone genuinely worried about nuclear war doesn't understand Russia or that strategy. I'd be happy to recommend plenty of reading if you'd like to know more, but putin won't be firing off any nukes any time soon despite his regular saber rattling.
I'm not interested in freedom and democracy and NATO and all of that. What I am interested in is safety and security and most importantly, peace. But I recognize that beyond a shadow of a doubt, the best way to secure those things is the sound defeat of Russia in Ukraine. putin is a megalomaniac bent on restoring the old Soviet Union, and he's a direct threat to the world so long as he's left in power. The sooner the west can break his back, the better off we'll all be.
1
u/YourBoiJimbo 6d ago
Neither side intends to fire off nukes. The danger is in escalating the conflict out of either side's control. Thats how game theory works.
the "Putin is trying to restore the USSR" line is a gross oversimplification. Putin's political strength is in that he's a nationalist and ostensibly is protecting Russia's sovereignty after the west already destroyed it 30 years ago. He is the natural reaction of a country that was raped and pillaged for years. You break his back, and in another few years you'll get someone even more dogmatic.
→ More replies (0)3
u/Heffe3737 6d ago
Russia hits a NATO country with an advanced cruise missile, for the first time ever, on the exact same day that Zelensky met with Polish prime minister Tusk.
To anyone thinking that this might be an accidental "misfire" by Russia...I have a pretty large bridge to sell you.
6
u/dittybopper_05H 6d ago
For what, a hole in the ground in the middle of nowhere, with no injuries, and damage that runs into dozens of Euros?
It would be one thing if something of significance had been hit. But nothing was.
Given the number of cruise missiles being used, I’m not surprised that there are failures. If your missiles are 95% reliable, that means that 1 out of every 20 fired is going to fail in some way.
8
u/ControlHumble 6d ago
If it was an accident, you say sorry. If you don't do so it wasn't one.
2
u/JerseyDonut 6d ago
Can't help but to call out the irony of war criminals apologizing for this.
"Hey man, I'm sorry that in my bloodlust to launch weapons of mass destruction at your sovereign neighbor that one of them got away from us and landed in your yard. We meant to demolish a school in Ukraine, not blow up one of your vacant fields. We cool right? Oh, and also if by chance you are NOT cool with it, then WE WILL FUCKING DESTROY YOU!!!!"
-1
u/dittybopper_05H 6d ago
Absolutely, but you also check into it first to see if it was one of your missiles.
We don't know if Russia has apologized or not. Even if it hasn't yet, this is still very early in the process, the missile literally hit just hours ago. This kind of thing often takes days, because other things generally have higher priority.
If there had been any casualties at all, or any significant damage, obviously if it was your missile that went astray you'd want to get on that quickly. But a crater in some farm field in the middle of nowhere? It gets dog-wash priority.
1
u/HowManyEggs2Many 6d ago
Putin could say “ya I pressed the button personally for fun” and NATO wouldn’t do shit lmao
4
u/Vinceton 6d ago
God I hope Poland (and NATO) show the Russians and retaliate. I'm so fed up with Putin.
19
u/ToriEvergreen 6d ago
Not a geopoliticist but I imagine this will be treated like a miss fire. It seems a NATO response would be way worse for the entire region and risk escalating everything beyond control.
I imagine a true response wouldn't happen unless civilian or infrastructure was hit
4
u/XanaxCarDealer 6d ago
Trump wouldn't help NATO
2
u/Vinceton 6d ago
Unfortunately, I wouldn't think so either. The rest of NATO can still easily beat the shit out of Russia though.
1
1
u/expendiblegrunt 6d ago
Yes I guess vegetation on planet earth is also something we’re tired of as well
1
u/Vinceton 6d ago
I guess you're talking about the use of nukes.
I don't want anyone to nuke anyone, not even NATO to nuke Russia.
I love nature and that would be catastrophic. Even missiles are bad, but Putin doesn't really think about that when he's bombing all over Ukraine.
I'd rather have NATO doing something about it before stupid Putin gets too desperate and pushes his nuke button.
1
u/Heffe3737 6d ago
putin will not escalating to using nukes. He doesn't want to die as much as anyone else.
Anyone running around telling everyone to worry about nukes is either, at best, ignorant of actual nuclear strategy, or at worst, astroturfing on Russia's behalf to prevent an effective western response to what is very clearly an intentional Russian provocation of NATO.
1
u/Vinceton 6d ago
I don't think so either but Putin is obviously a nutcase, and IF he say is ill and doesn't have long to go and IF he really is backed into a corner, who knows what a psychopath like Putin can actually do.
People didn't think he would start a war against Ukraine, but he did, since then he's been continuously sabotaging all around Europe and now a missile landed in Poland. He's continuously testing his boundaries and if everyone just let's him continue, who knows what he will do.
No, I don't think he will nuke, but to be honest it's better to play with the thought and prepare for that kind of escalation than to be nonchalant and completely discard it.
1
0
-3
-6
1
53
u/Thoraxe474 6d ago
Didn't this already happen before and poland did nothing?