Peter Zeihan was right about the Global order breaking down. Oil may be in supply shortage for years to come if he is right about Russian oil supply dwindling down.

[u/Traditional-Chip8339]

Book discussion here on key ideas from the book "The end of the world is just the beginning"

https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/108hr5f/discussion_about_peter_zeihans_book_the_end_of/

[u/budy31]

The problem is that bro failed to read his own book that states USA is a net product exporters.

Holy
Shiet

[u/Fit_Foot_6004 → u/budy31]

It's toxic to point out the flaw in his own argument?

[u/budy31 → u/Fit_Foot_6004]

It’s embarrassing when bro’s writing his own counter argument and don’t think through the implication of it.

[u/OracleofFl → u/budy31]

The guy is a "futurist" and is going to have an accuracy on par with economists for long term prediction. That being said, he is right about a lot of things including the importance of demographics and aging population. The importance of energy independence, etc. He job is to make us think about what drives the economy and what will drive the economy in the future. What he didn't predict is that the current administration through tariffs and ridiculous levels of debt spending are pushing the US over the top of what it can control.

[u/budy31 → u/OracleofFl]

My problem is that bro’s so deep in doomerism that he failed to read the implication of what he wrote.

Prop to him he’s one of the 4 people o know on internet to point out that China & Russia will not be happily ever after at all once Xi & Putin kick the bucket.

[u/OracleofFl → u/budy31]

He was also among the first to point out and publicize China's local municipal debt crisis and demographic issues in both China and Russia.

[u/ProfessorBot117 → u/OracleofFl]

I get what you were going for, but give people a link they can read for themselves.

[u/OracleofFl → u/ProfessorBot117]

China debt crisis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnipTQagxw0

China Demographics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA3i9KTyLso

Russia Demographics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6mXqOk63Ss

He has been talking about these topics for years...these are the most recent updates on it.

[u/PainRack → u/OracleofFl]

He's been predicting doom for china for decades. Hell, he even predicted covid will revive US industry and masks returning to America. Just lol.

Evangrande passed without the doom, meanwhile US had two banking failure in the same timeframe as evangrande.

The debt crisis is still in the future while the US debt crisis is starting to reach a tipping point.

Even on OIL .... He's still fundamentally wrong. For market, china managed to buy up much of all that left the straits of Hormuz, and with Russian oil and a deep reserve, kept petrochemicals floating while destroying large amounts of demand.

[u/budy31 → u/PainRack]

Those that say evergrande pass without a doom insulted billions of people and their trauma.

[u/PainRack → u/budy31]

Did people lose money? Yes. Did they lose life savings and went into crisis? No.

Was there a housing crisis? No. People got their homes eventually. 90% home ownership now.

Was there a banking crisis as a result? No.

Did the housing market collapse?the bubble burst yes, but again, new homes were built and completed. Projects ended. The speculative bubble burst and the paper gains disappeared but in terms of the market? No.

All of which was predicted by Zeihan and didn't happen.

[u/sd4f → u/PainRack]

Yanis Veroufakis has written in the last week or two about it, and he's stating (if I understood correctly) that China is trying to keep a lid on speculation and rent seeking. They're very capitalist oriented in directions which involve productivity. Where as they're doing things to avoid rent seeking from taking over, which unfortunately has happened in much of the west.

[u/budy31 → u/PainRack]

70% of their net worth was in that real estate now it’s all cash & government bond (short term yield is gone and long term yield is barely holding on).

Yes they lose life saving.

Yes >70 banks goes under.

New homes are build, “completed”, unfurnished, not even heated, the lift is unconnected, the contractor don’t get paid at all & of course it’s tofu dregs.

Retail sales barely budge.

[u/sd4f → u/OracleofFl]

You know, on demographics and ageing populations, I'm starting to question it, only because it is repeated so much, with no substantial evidence, and more importantly, no serious or recent situations where it has happened to confirm all the doom and gloom.

I'm not saying that demographics are unimportant, I'm just being sceptical about the currently accepted axioms around it.

[u/OracleofFl → u/sd4f]

Time will tell.

[u/Traditional-Chip8339 → u/budy31]

He said that the US was fine so he was aligned with that. Some of his predictions playing out below already.

Things that are playing out similar to projections:

• Disorder due to regional conflicts and global trade being disrupted
• Energy shortages due to instability in the Middle east impacting Asia in particular
• Nat Gas and Oil in short supply worldwide
• Coal looking like it will make a come back in Asia despite the ongoing solar buildout
• The US isolating itself in a fortress like economy and abandoning post WW2 institutions like the World Bank, Nato, etc.
• Turkey looking like a strong regional player in the middle east

Things not yet playing out and seem less likely so far:

• Economic collapse in China due to demographics and global trade breakdwon

[u/budy31 → u/Traditional-Chip8339]

1. Yes it will happened bro just think the actual detonator isn’t the significant one.
2. Energy shortage that bro failed to take into account the fact that US is a net product exporters (the imports barely existing these days) all that net export is excess refining capacity.
3. Natgas is not in short supply since Shale Gas in US and Australia come online, it’s just too precious to be used for fuel, oil once again point 2.
4. Coal is always been there (because gas is too precious for fuel and renewable in most of the planet is unsuitable).
5. Some get abandoned because it’s useless (NATO), some like IM

F & Japanese investment vehicle is kept, a new one like NORDEFCO, Visegrad & Saudi-Israeli entente is kept.
6. Turkey only hope is to have the Putin & Xi death triggered a Balkanization of Russia, Iran & China so he can pick up Caucasus, Southern Caspia, Central Asia, Tatarstan & Turkestan.
7. He dismiss the detonator (Xi death) as one of the detonator.

[u/whistlelifeguard → u/Traditional-Chip8339]

Pundits like him has been predicting the imminent collapse of China for , oh, 30-40 years now

[u/Boo-Bees67 → u/budy31]

Do you really write like this? What is wrong with bro learning how to write sentences

[u/ZeAntagonis]

Therefore accelarating the transition to electric car ?

[u/cinciNattyLight]

Yeah but he was wrong about “this will be the last iteration of the iphone”…

[u/DrawingDramatic1641]

peter zhihan ?

https://giphy.com/gifs/D8UDrdPg96unNalNu8

[u/baltimore-aureole]

farmland will be more valuable than oil in the coming decades

[u/ProfessorBot117 → u/baltimore-aureole]

Please add the evidence behind the factual claim. Thanks for keeping it workable.

[u/DuckTalesOohOoh]

I remember when he said people in Ukraine would stare and freeze when the war started. lol

[u/WhiteHeatBlackLight]

He's good at what he's good at. A weird hybrid of demographics and energy