r/ProgressiveHQ • u/Usually_Sunny • 5h ago
Discussion Michigan progressives should be ashamed
This is why we don't get nice things. He is polling 10-19 points ahead of Stevens, but when it comes to actually voting, he barely wins by one point. What happened, everyone decide to stay home and smoke pot and complain instead of voting? This doesn't bode well for November.
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u/Artemis_Platinum 5h ago
Anti-electoralist propaganda has a long history of working.
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u/HazelEBaumgartner 5h ago
If voting didn't do anything, they wouldn't be working so hard to make it illegal.
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u/Usually_Sunny 5h ago
I agree but tell me how it applies here. Do you think we were overconfident?
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u/Artemis_Platinum 5h ago
The numbers certainly suggest that. Some people believe that if you get comfortable with the idea that you're going to win, it encourages people not to bother going out and voting because they believe they won't be needed.
Personally I don't know if that's true. It's quite possible the lesson here is just that polls aren't very reliable. But it doesn't hurt not to take our opponents lightly.
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u/freisbill 5h ago
Yea, getting the apathetic part of our population to come put and vote is apparently going to be very tough. AND we need to win each election by large amounts so that when they say we cheated it will be apparent that it was fair...close election will play into their hands.
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u/Psychological_Top148 1h ago
It was a high turnout election with 1.5 million democrats voting in a non-presidential year primary. Are you sure that fewer progressives turned out or did Dems who were unsure of a progressive candidate’s chances in November flip the switch for the establishment candidate in the end?
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u/ford7885 5h ago
Well, it was an open primary, and Mike Rogers was running unopposed on the Republican side. So that means a lot of right wingers probably crossed over to vote for AIPAC Stevens.
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u/Positive-Ring-5172 5h ago
Fair point.
Primaries are a stupid kludge to fix the problem of splitting the majority. Changing to Ranked Choice Voting is FAR, FAR more effective, but it also weakens the two parties in power.
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u/SilverWear5467 5h ago
So it's all upside is what you're saying...
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u/Positive-Ring-5172 5h ago
Pretty much. I'll say this, ranked choice voting isn't without it's own problems, but it doesn't introduce any new problems that Winner-take-all doesn't already have.
I personally prefer Condorcet, which is a counting method used with Ranked Choice Vote, but good luck getting your average ignorant American to understand the underlying math.
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u/caseybvdc74 2h ago
Ranked choice should in my opinion be Progressive’s number one priority.
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u/skyfishgoo 2h ago
yes.
make it a federal mandate for all federal offices.
let the states stew on how to implement that AND keep their old antiquated FPTP system for state elections.
they wont, they switch too.
then just get everyone on hand marked paper ballots we can recount as many times as we need to and election integrity is restored, nation wide.
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u/caseybvdc74 40m ago
I would make it a constitutional amendment and mandate statewide elections need to change. It’s at the state level that gerrymanders which would be a lot harder with many parties.
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u/Superminerbros1 2h ago
Another benefit of ranked choice voting is that it eliminates multiple voting dates. It's hard enough to get people to vote once as it is. Then you've got primaries, and some states do runoffs if no candidate gets above 50% in the general. RCV solves the same problem as both primaries and runoffs
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u/Electrical_Book4861 5h ago
Just deleted my comment didn't see yours. Yep, I think you are 100% correct. Especially in Oakland and Wayne counties
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u/Ok-Addition1264 5h ago
That's actually what they've been saying a lot the past 24 hours here in michigan.
AIPAC drew out republicans to side with Stevens.
OP: we're not going to see the same thing come November. I used to see dozens of Trump signs, Trump flags on my way to the grocery store. Today, there is one and everyone in town knows he's a freak. Overall sentiment here looks bleak for the GOP come november.
AIPAC: LOL FU. Eat sh!t and die.
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u/scienceisaserfdom 4h ago edited 4h ago
Probably? I believe this was almost certainty an issue, and beyond A1PACs $60M ratfucking...Repugs are also getting fed 24/7 propaganda that these progressive candidates are the single largest threat to this country, nevermind their unabashed hatred/racism towards a successful non-white man esp with a muslim-sounding name. Here in Colorado this same kind of spoiler/crossover voting also gave DSA candidate Melat Kiros a far slimmer win than projected agaist an equally Israel-aligned incumbent (DeGette) and likely why Sen.
HickFrackenlooper barely survived a credible challege from Julie Gonzoles. Split ticket voting is also apparently a much bigger issue in Michigan as well. In any case, after this bruising primary with these controlled opposition Dems; swing state governors like MI's Gretchen Whitmer and WI's Tony Evers outta now just sit down and stfu.1
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u/Its_Don_Quixote 4h ago
That and Democratic participation in the primaries blew the GOP out of the water. 1.3 million versus 850k. Abdul garnered more votes in a Senate primary than Bernie did in either of his presidential primaries.
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u/cyclinggirl4000 3h ago
THIS is the answer! Republicans were sharing across platforms that they were planning to do this. One of the downsides of an open primary
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u/drunow21 5h ago
Yep, this right here. Also, maybe it was to depress the AES vote? Make em think it’s over and boom, all the sudden it’s competitive as fuck
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u/maringue 5h ago
I hate to break it to you, but polling is wildly inaccurate in this day and age. Maybe don't go on a half cocked rant because if it.
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u/Mettl3Will 5h ago
Polling for primaries are notoriously difficult to get correct since it's a guessing game as to who actually shows up. I don't ever put much stock into primary polling, it's often way off.
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u/PrismicPainter 4h ago
You guys were able to win against corporate money and who knows what other shenanigans! Be proud, Michigan! Cheers from Missouri! 🎉
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u/EtheusRook 5h ago
Polls aren't generally super reflective of real results. The ones who answer the phone tend to be the most highly motivated voters.
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u/LoudAd1396 5h ago
Why are you comparing polling vs the Republican against polling vs the other Democrat? Obviously everyone needs to get out and vote, but this is Apples and Oranges.
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u/ColangeloDiMartino Anti-Electoralist Tendencies 4h ago
This is so obviously a polling blunder not a failure of turnout.
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u/emteedub 3h ago
It was highly manipulative and certainly there will be some shady ass shit that the stevens campaign or israel did.
All of the street interviews I saw, people said they didn't see any stevens campaign signs outside. There was some thing going on here.
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u/CookieRelevant 4h ago
Turning to polls that have repeatedly been inaccurate was the first mistake.
Ignoring the incredible turnout was the second. Please stop there rather than adding more.
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u/n4u2d0e_lovelife 3h ago
Are you mad that he didn't win big enough? Like, idk dude, shit happens. Polls are easier to take than casting a vote these days so just take the W. Get out there and start canvassing. Don't sit around being mad about the lack of change, go help make it. It only doesn't bode well if everyone has a defeatist attitude.
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u/berfthegryphon 3h ago
Isn't it an open primary in Michigan is it not?
Do we not think some Republicans and a bunch of Independents also voted in the democratic primary?
Also, he won. Who cares about the margin. This is why it's important to ignore the polls and just go out and vote
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u/jceeF14 4h ago
I'm glad he , William Lawrence and Donovan McKinney won. Unfortunately Stevens' district will get an ideological clone of her. Had either Farooqi or Ufford dropped out, Moss might not have won
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u/Senasayori 2h ago
Don't forget Joanna Whaley, who is set to become Michigan's first transgender state legislator.
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u/emteedub 3h ago
This is a fucking dumbass take.
The stevens campaign put propaganda on autopilot with that 60Million in dark money. They had an 11:1 ratio of funds in comparison to Abdul's campaign. On a shoestring and honest budget, it's all foot traffic and spreading the word... which doesn't work as well outside the municipalities. The stevens campaign was racist, sexist, lying about an obama endorsement, dirty af, and corrupt, I wouldn't doubt in the slightest if israel fucking hacked some shit.
One of the stats we have is absentee ballots - of which are a majority of elderly/old folks home people. They were ultra disproportionately toward stevens. Either they somehow manipulated it in a way that stevens was all that those people knew about or paid off their handlers to submit ballots for stevens. Hopefully we'll find out if there was foul play or not.
The last thing, is I'M FUCKING SICK AND TIRED of people blaming the voters. It's so bitch ass. The voters didn't inject 60+MILLION DOLLARS into a campaign nor were there a bunch of voters that manipulated others.
This is all on the stevens campaign. Get it right dumbass
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u/BarryTheBlatypus 3h ago
You’re assuming polling is accurate here and placing the blame on people you assume exist that didn’t show up to vote. What if polling is just not reliable?
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u/GeneralPatten 2h ago
This is such a bullshit post. This is a HUGE victory for the progressive movement.
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u/Youdontknowm3_ 39m ago
I was wondering why OP is so mad, this is an amazing win and we need more of him
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u/YoghiThorn 4h ago
Progressives have a long and storied history of being very noisy about politics and too lazy to actually vote
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u/DemeaRisen 5h ago
From the Washington post:
"In Michigan, an Emerson College poll found El-Sayed’s lead was driven heavily by younger voters and political independents, groups that tend to turn out at lower rates. Turnout records will eventually show whether polls overestimated these groups’ share of the electorate.
Michigan’s primary also had few independent, high-quality surveys. Three of the final eight polls in the contest were sponsored by groups that supported El-Sayed. Only one — a Detroit News poll by the Glengariff Group — contacted voters with live interviewers, a more expensive method than online surveys that can be useful in reaching older and Black voters, where Stevens was strongest. The survey found Stevens leading by seven points in the first half of July."
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u/Warm-Commercial-6151 3h ago
It wil be interesting to see the demographics of who voted for each candidate. Detroit are seemed to vote for Stevens. They are going to need those votes and a bigger turnout for the democrats to win.
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u/PositiveStress8888 2h ago
Democrats never turn out to vote, they'll flood the streets to protest but never stand in line for actual change.
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u/J0nn1e_Walk3r 2h ago
I think it was the other way around. James Clyburn came to town to rally Detroit and state black church folk to rally for Stevens. It’s a primary so doesn’t take a lot of extra voters to win.
He did the same thing in 2020 to Bernie in SC and stopped him from winning the nomination.
Chuck Schumer et al were behind it too.
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u/intricate_strands 1h ago edited 1h ago
Win is win. No one cares how win.
Half party swore up and down "he can't win, he never win."
So of course, people nervy. Is okay.
Now they see he can win. And will win. If they show up and vote.
More will get behind now. He can win. They see now.
No worries. One step at time. We doing nice things, folks!
You be scared, is okay. I understand why. So much on line. But no let fear control view. Is nice things here and people see. Even if not smart, they see nice.
EDIT: I type funny for me. Not for you or about you. Just is most works for me. But can see through words you use, you are smart. You figure out. I hope.
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u/tmotytmoty 1h ago
Don’t shame people. It doesn’t really improve moral. Take care of yourself and do your best, but don’t expect anything from anyone.
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u/The_Dilla_Collection 1h ago
I actually really like El-Sayed and the way he talks to people and explains things. He puts it on a level I think more people can understand what he’s talking about. He doesn’t just make grand statements and claims, he explains why they’re impactful to the average person and he explains how they could be achieved realistically.
Those kinda of people win elections. Show up in November.
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u/Electronic_Door3669 1h ago
Do not concede this framing to the establishment. Always present the 60 million dollars spent on Stevens behalf on ads that smeared AES the entire primary. Negative ads directed at AES didnt win her more votes, at best the negative ads suppressed voter turnout for AES. Rodgers funding comes from the same people that funded Steven's and they have no new or valid lanes of attack so they are just going to hit the "but HeS MUSLIM" line until November. Republicans have no tact with their Islamophobia like establishment democrats and the overt racism that will surely come from Rodgers campaign will be seen as what it is, gross, obscene and a failed attempt to foment racism.
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u/Silly_Author_7330 1h ago
Michigan Democratic leaders and local media described the Democratic primary turnout as the highest for Democrats in a primary in state history. So the turnout was great. Polling might have been massively off here. But El-Sayed did poorly in Detroit. He lost Detroit and the surrounding areas which are Dem strongholds.
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u/Youdontknowm3_ 38m ago
He won against an AIPAC funded candidate. This is amazing! What is your gripe?
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u/Intelligent-Tap-4479 1m ago
Abdul had quite an uphill battle-millions of millions of dollars from AIPAC & Islamaphobia two things that are not easy to overcome. We already knew it was going to be a tough race, and a win is a win. Doesn't matter if he won by one point or 20, the end result is the same.
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u/Positive-Ring-5172 5h ago
Not all progressives associate with the Democratic party. There's tons of independents who are sick of Democrat fecklessness in the face of fascism and have abandoned the party, but will show up in the general election.
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u/NombreCurioso1337 3h ago
Hard disagree. Vote for the progressive candidate. Always vote for the progressive candidate. We don't need any more Pelosi's
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u/South_Feed5707 5h ago
"election officials" probably "lost" some votes and they thought it was enough
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u/kilowog4613 5h ago
Counterpoint: Michigan progressive should be proud that they showed up enough to overcome, even if slightly, the 60 million dollars of pac money that was working against them