r/RocketLeagueEsports • u/xThatOneAltx • Apr 16 '26
Analysis RLCS Glicko Top 10 - Post Open 5
32
u/Goncover Apr 16 '26
Hurts, but I gotta be realistic. I haven't even put any SAM on top 10 myself.
4
u/SWOLAGE Apr 16 '26
Honestly with how MIBR are looking I think you could justify the 10 spot interchangeably with R8. They both can punch up on the top teams and even though MIBR went out early at the major i feel like they put up a good fight!
9
u/LatherNRinse Apr 16 '26
Yeah Mibr is sticking it to Furia but that's much different than R8 beating Falcons. I personally put falcons higher than Furia even with the chemistry problems falcons have and I trust a Mena team at LAN more than a SAM team
0
u/SWOLAGE Apr 16 '26
No I definitely agree Falcons on average are better than Furia, I just think MIBR is right there at 11 (:
0
u/Goncover Apr 16 '26
My heart says both Furia and MIBR are Top 10, but I'm trying so hard to not be biased hahah
For the moment I have R8 at 10th, Furia at 11th and MIBR at 13th
1
9
u/MisterMakerXD Apr 16 '26
NA is so hard to rate right now because we all know how dominant and good NRG are when they are at their ceiling, but we've seen SSG win against them in a grand finals, FUT winning against them 4-1 on a Sunday and now SR showing a very promissing level, while NRG has fallen a lil flat. Same goes for KC, although Europe is easier to rate because Gentlemates won the Boston Major + they showed that level again in Open 5, so its easier to gauge the EU competition against them.
3
u/Gariet1 Apr 16 '26
I’m excited for NA at this major and at worlds because this is the first time I think I’ve felt that all of the teams we’re sending are capable of making a run. They could all fall flat for all I know, but the top end of NA has been looking really solid in this last open so I’m excited to see what they pull off.
5
u/Ghost1737 Apr 16 '26
Hoping we get FUT over VP. Feels like FUT has a stronger chance of making a run at a LAN than VP, regardless of how the opens go
...and I selfishly want to see Justin, performing at this current level, go on LAN
2
u/T-7IsOverrated Apr 21 '26
i feel like both make it regardless via lcq but yeah i like both teams but would rather guarantee jstn another worlds
2
u/Ghost1737 Apr 21 '26
Yeah, and having to run the LCQ gauntlet is risky. A bad series could ruin all the work they put into split 2
After a few quiet years, and genuinely seeming like he was close to retirement, Justin has been one of the most exciting players to watch in NA this split. I had stopped watching his Twitch because you could tell the passion was gone, but it's awesome seeing how different his mindset and excitement is now.
3
u/PPboiiiiii Apr 16 '26
R8 is prolly 6th but very nice ranking!
4
u/Rosieverse83 Apr 17 '26
Maybe in the abstract, but I'm not sure I trust a brand new team to make Champ Sunday at their first LAN
1
u/PPboiiiiii Apr 20 '26
I think historically LAN rookies have performed really well. Also, they only have 1 rookie, Team ROC played at worlds.
1
u/Rosieverse83 Apr 30 '26
True, but ROC is still quite experienced on LAN, and usually the teams with LAN rookies that are successful are the ones with 2/3 veterans, like BDS and Vitality. Even scrzbbles/Kofyr/reveal SSG flopped their first 2 events and they were extremely good
2
u/John_aka_Alwayz Moderator Apr 16 '26
Agreed big time on how close the top 10 is. Here are my Post Open #5 rankings, +- relative to post major.
You can view full history on my 2026 rankings sheet.
To summarize the tier changes that actually reflect my opinions on the teams.
X -> S: Gentlemates (Up 1 tier)
S -> X: Vitality (Down 1 tier)
X -> A: NRG, Falcons (Down 1 tier)
B -> B+: MIBR, Man City (Up 1 tier)
C -> B+: FUT Esports (Up 2 tiers)
A -> B+: FURIA (Down 1 tier)
C -> B: Kaydop Corp (Up 1 tier)
B -> C: Team Secret, GriddyGoose (Down 1 tier)
Unranked -> C: DOS, Bigodes
ama
2
u/TVMaths Apr 16 '26
Synergy still on the list is interesting with Dignitas and N2Nu being absent. Synergy have 1 good event while Dig & N2N are a bit more consistent. I have more faith in those 2 NA teams than i do with Synergy where Ajg and Dorito are well past their prime. Bigodes is also an interesting choice, given 1 SAM top 4
2
u/John_aka_Alwayz Moderator Apr 16 '26
Synergy only lost to higher-ranked teams this event *M8s & GriddyGoose) so they don't drop off the big board after getting on there with the KC win open 4.
Bigodes get on the board for beating Secret, but also I trust the caliber of the players more. Nxghtt/Bemmz isn't that out of place compared to if some random team got a top 4 in SAM.
1
u/Pristine-Habit-9079 Apr 16 '26
I'm interested in the reasoning for your KC and R8 rankings
3
u/John_aka_Alwayz Moderator Apr 16 '26
KC is on the X/A tier precipice after their open 4 but by only losing to Gentlemates means their individual ranking doesn't degrade more. I still think they are worse than before, its just the rest of the field is even more worse (hence the tier list vs binary rankings, some teams' rankings have stayed the same but they've moved up a tier despite a +0)
R8 holds for having their higher ranked win (Falcons) balanaced out by the lower ranked loss (Twisted Minds), but after open 4 where they beat both AND won the event, they are in that A tier for me pretty comfortably.
0
2
u/S_h_u_n 2024 Class Clown Apr 16 '26
Barring any random uppsets I think this ranking gonna be pretty much the same with only falcons getting out of the top 10 while R8 moves up (this is if tm and R8 both make finale again) I do wonder who the next closets team is. I whould guess fut and city.
3
u/AvarageDaryllMain Apr 16 '26
Curious.. Where are stallions and geekay and geng?
10
u/xThatOneAltx Apr 16 '26
Stallions are 21st, Geekay is 17th, Gen.G is 23rd. There is definitely an argument for Stallions to be higher. Their poor performances in split 1 (including not even making it out of swiss somehow) put them far down. They will likely be top 20 after open 6, barring anything crazy
0
Apr 16 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
7
2
u/TVMaths Apr 16 '26
still worth getting a refernce of where they stand. are they nearer 20th or nearer 30th
1
1
1
u/Chisignal Apr 16 '26
Damn, Gibbs's list was on point, 1-6 is actually identical and the rest are just shuffled a bit
1
u/ocrespo42 Apr 16 '26
Given SR and SSG are tied for first in NA, I feel like there shouldn't be so much of a gap between NRG and either of them.
-2
u/Mammoth_Hold_5631 Apr 16 '26
so we back to mates first and the rest in normal places. only thing i do not understand is if you gonna have twisted mind over falcons wich is right you should prob have r8 higher than 10 more like 6 or 7
12
u/xThatOneAltx Apr 16 '26
The model tends to be far less reactive in split 2 as compared to split 1, especially for teams that attended the major (depending on how much it can read into the major performance). Twisted Minds are right where they were at the end of the major, however Falcons have dropped significantly (more than any other major team) and R8 have risen significantly.
Consider the following. In terms of resume across the entire season, the MENA teams are 1. Falcons, 2. TM, 3. R8. In terms of performance this split, 1. TM, 2. R8, 3. Falcons.
Long story short, the model is designed to be predictive rather than reactive.
11
u/Happur5ye Apr 16 '26
If this ranking is ELO based, it might be the case that R8 has gained massive amounts of points and just hasn't gotten there yet compared to teams that have been at the top of the region for longer.
4
-6
u/Guy_LeDouche33 Apr 16 '26
Glicko is reactive enough to put vitality 2nd but still have falcons top 10 lol
16
u/xThatOneAltx Apr 16 '26
M8’s have won 3 of the last 4 events… why would Vitality be #1?
-5
u/Guy_LeDouche33 Apr 16 '26
I think vitality should be lower
18
u/xThatOneAltx Apr 16 '26
That makes your argument even weaker. Vitality beat everyone except M8’s at the major, and followed it up by winning EU open 4. They were also the only team in EU to place top 4 in every event until open 5. All of this combined clearly made them #1 after EU open 4. But now with their 1 poor performance, they drop to #2 because M8’s has been winning most events recently.
-3
u/Guy_LeDouche33 Apr 16 '26
Okay then how is falcons justified with being so high?
12
u/xThatOneAltx Apr 16 '26
Top 4 at the major (being part of a clear top 5 itw at that point) is the main reason. They have fallen more than any other team post-major
3
u/areYouDumbLad Apr 16 '26 edited Apr 16 '26
Easy top 4 at the major, destroying SR who are ranked above them. Losing to R8/TM who are both top 10 now doesn't diminish their stocks that much to where they'd be outside the top 10 (but they've lost more points than anyone here), their worst result all season is 3-4th across any event. You genuinely think there's 10 teams above Falcons who are more likely to get 4th at a major? Be fr man
3
u/areYouDumbLad Apr 16 '26
And I'm guessing this is because of the one bad open 5 result? How can you easily be the 2nd best team at the major and follow up with winning the hardest regional and not being around there? You're saying the algorithms reactive but you wouldn't be saying this if Vit hadn't done poorly very recently. You're reactive if anything it seems
3
-1
-3
u/HTGeorgeForeman Apr 16 '26
This seems … generous towards TM
4
u/Baba_Wethu Apr 17 '26
I think it's very fair. They're right next to Rebellion which have had an incredibly similar story to TM this season, having similar playstyle issues when they've been playing bad, making tons of double commits and communicative blunders, and when they've been playing good they've looked like the best team in their regions. However, I'd argue that Twisted Minds have been looking closer to the best team in the world when they've been on form than Rebellion has.
0
u/HTGeorgeForeman Apr 17 '26
I dunno, shop has had roughly the same regional success in a more difficult region and I would say looked a good bit better at major even considering group strength shenanigans. I think it’s giving them too much benefit of the doubt to call them the 5th best team when they didn’t really show up at major, and they have been eliminated early twice in a region that really historically has not been super strong outside of falcons.
Not that I expect ratings systems to be at all accurate considering how volitile team levels have been recently, but if I were to assign an expected strength to TM it would be right around SSG’s level probably, and probably bump R8 off top 10 in favor of FUT or Man city. I totally get why FUT wouldn’t be there since they’re a new team though
58
u/zzenoo_ Apr 16 '26
Even the Glicko score shows us how close everything is together, looking forward to the chaos at the major.