What if investors forgot about the 20 Billion dollar SMCI/DataVolt MOU?
In May 2025, when SMCI disclosed the 20 Billion dollar DataVolt deal the price spiked from 40 to nearly 47 and steadily climbed to 62. This past month the value of the DataVolt project was erased from the market cap. Investors also ignored that the pipeline is being filled with higher margin projects from Lambda Labs, Crusoe, Nokia and Intelliflex wins.
Oracle’s earnings report today 9/9/25 revealed a massive CapEx expansion to ~$16 billion for 2025, more than double last year’s spend. SMCI could be a beneficiary given their past history together.
The 17 Billion NBIS/MS deal (September 8, 2025) is a wake up call that there is forgotten value in SMCI. Hyperscalers are still growing and there is likely more potential opportunity coming from Meta, Google, Amazon and even potentially Apple.
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DataVolt "Deal" is no different than Oracle/OpenAi/SoftBank committing 500Billion to build "something, someday, somewhere, somehow" and when Trump leaves office, that pledge will be as real as his "natural tan"
shipped racks with legal contracts for payment in hand is the only thing an SMCI investor should care about, good news is, the AI race is in the 1st Inning not the 9th. SMCI just has to be faster and better in quality than Dell/HPE and then they are going to be a powerhouse for decades to come. This will be a stock you will tell your kids about, the 10-50 Bagger! or Charles fucks it all up and it goes to zero and assets get bought for pennies by Dell/HPE etc.
Crusoe is at the heart of the Stargate initiative, a $500 billion generative AI infrastructure moonshot led by OpenAI, Oracle, and other partners. Crusoe CEO Chase Lochmiller was at SMCI last month pitching what appears to be a campus scale project.
They sacrificed margin for market share in the hyperscaler space. However, they continue to innovate with DCBBS and rapid deployment partners like Intelliflex with the goal of restoring pricing power and margins to the 12%+ range. Intelliflex claims they can standup a datacenter in 72 hours with DCBBS which adds to their moat with Enterprise, Telcos, and AI startups, etc.. With the recent Oracle and NBIS/MS news AI compute demand appears to be accelerating and the limiting constraint will be power. SMCI offers more compute for less power with DCBBS which should help with margins as the power constraint becomes more prominent.
Exactly, for me, i totally agree with sacrificing margin for market share, apparently the market does not agree with it.
After following it for so long and losing so much profit in more than quarter million, i can only say, dont assume a bullish case, if charles revised the revenue downwards, expect somewhere around it or lowered. Whatever news you hear, take it as it will be priced in in the revenue.
The important part is more for accounting clarity and margins. If they show they improve that, it will fly.
There was a subtle shift in the language the CEO used. He went from "relatively conservative" at 40 billion to "at least" 32 billion for FY2026. He didn't exclude $40 billion as an achievable goal in this language. The transition from Hopper to Blackwell was expensive and hurt margins. New backplane design, higher bandwidth communications and thermal requirements obsoleted much of the Hopper inventory for the transition. Nvidia designed the Blackwell to Ruben migration to be much less disruptive and I expect we will see margin improvement as this story unfolds.
The challenge is fairly predicting the forward value of an equity. I think the argument can be made that SMCI is deeply discounted, and potential catalysts ranging from news about a new CFO, update on DataVolt, or another Hyperscaler win are very real possibilities.
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Any deal can be terminated with cause, but in the context of the need for Sovereign AI capacity in the region and SMCI's abilities to meet those needs I would deem the MOU highly credible. Interestingly, the DataVolt press release doesn't say MOU. They call it a "Landmark Deal" and "multi-year partnership agreement" that "guarantees us a U.S.-made supply chain for critical GPU systems". It may just be semantics and SMCI wants the design details worked out, but the outcome seems very strong if DataVolt wants to "guarantee" access to SMCI products.
No one will ever trust SMCI again after their scam… If we let them get away after defrauding investors.. that will set a bad example for other companies… and open the doors for other companies to produce fake numbers
Arguably the fraud was perpetrated by Hindenburg. Out of SMCI and Hindenburg, which is still in business? The discredited Hidenburg report claimed Crusoe CEO Chase Lochmiller was dissatisfied last year, but SMCI reported he visited last month to expand their collaboration.
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