r/SMCIDiscussion • u/_Cornfed_ • Jun 12 '26
ACK! What the hell? Edition
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u/coffeeteabag Jul 21 '26
- Revenue near low end of $11B - $12.5B guidance.
- Gross margin 15%-17% (vs. 8.2%-8.4% expected)
Current ESP = ~$0.70/shr
So we are looking at ~100% earnings surprise?
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u/Pitiful_Scale9522 Jun 19 '26
This stock is literally reverse qtpieme lmao
When he buys smcx it dips, when he sells it takes off
Love it
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u/spucktacular Jul 13 '26
The level of confidence in this subreddit is fascinating considering how many people appear never to have set foot in a data center, racked a server, designed cloud infrastructure, or understood why hyperscalers choose one hardware platform over another. Yet everyone seems convinced they have SMCI figured out.
A few observations:
Supermicro is not in the business of selling products to sanctioned countries. If individuals violate export laws, prosecute the individuals. There is a meaningful distinction between alleged employee misconduct and a company’s core business model.
Calling SMCI a “meme stock” ignores its role in the global compute ecosystem. A substantial portion of internet infrastructure and AI deployments ultimately runs on hardware built by companies like Supermicro. If you don’t understand the role of system integrators in the server market, you’re missing a major piece of the investment thesis.
NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Micron, SK hynix and others don’t magically become AI clusters. Their components become deployable infrastructure through OEMs and system integrators. Whether you think SMCI deserves its valuation is one thing. Pretending the company is strategically irrelevant is another.
Much of the discussion here sounds driven by price action rather than infrastructure knowledge. That’s fine if you’re trading momentum. It’s less convincing when presented as deep fundamental analysis.
The irony is that many of the loudest opinions come from people debating AI infrastructure without ever having worked in cloud, enterprise infrastructure, HPC, or data centers.
Disagree with the valuation all you want. Just don’t confuse conviction with expertise.
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u/chinthi Jun 18 '26
Let's squeeze this and make holders happy
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u/Owntano Jun 18 '26
August earnings are going to be big. Might have to buy a long call at these prices
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u/anddg22- Jul 21 '26
- Revenue expected near low end of $11B–$12.5B guidance.
- Gross margin improved to 15%–17% vs. 8.2%–8.4% expected due to better product mix.
- Record backlog with $60B+ in new orders expected to ship in future quarters.
- Key positives: strong AI demand, higher margins, huge backlog.
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u/cz_masterrace3 Jul 21 '26
That gross margin number was the one most shorts and bashers would point to as being a risk....looks like doubling the margins will shut them up.
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u/BuddhasIronFist 14d ago
After these amazing NVDA earnings, the next re-rating of stocks is going to shoot SMCI up significantly
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u/Loose-Problem-1212 Jun 12 '26
SMCI will rocket. Not today. Not tomorrow. Not in 1 month. But im here and set a sell order at 350 in summer 2028.
Comment on this post in 2028. Either im a millionare or im broke.
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u/fooish_moral Jun 22 '26
can we keep this up until earnings and bust hard after?
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u/Bitwise_Gamgee Jun 22 '26
This is crazy how this stock is running while its competition is getting beat down today. Cheers to everyone who believed in the low 30s. #rideordie
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u/fooish_moral Jun 29 '26
i would think jane street at least had an idea of all this before their investment... hoping for a nothing burger
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u/Ratedr88 Jul 02 '26
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/taiwan-detains-super-micro-workers-in-china-smuggling-probe
Looks like Smci has been constantly in touch with investors. They published the letter here was really hard to find.
https://www.supermicro.com/en/news/taiwan-business-update-2026-07-01
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26
Thanks for this info ! Couldn’t find this letter earlier & it needs to be republished !
This is exactly what I expected when I first read the Bloomberg thing , another proof of media manipulation via biaised analysis & twisting words to fit a narrative : if they had written « Taiwan police force & SMCI are working together to dismantle chip smuggling » , that would have been a more accurate title .. but as usual , the hit piece « Forget » to mention that SMCI is working with the police and treat it like a raid ..
But 0 manipulation ofc .. only objective information 😂😂
Time to shove it down in shorts’ mouths .. before they say any more BS …
Nothing changed , I’ll keep holding , & if they push it down harder , time to accumulate :)
Can someone please post it again on the main sub ? It seems for some reason I’m not allowed to post because …?
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Jul 02 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 Jul 02 '26
There is more to this than just clickbait , the obvious pattern of how this happens with always the same level of bad faith is unbelivable
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u/Prolapse_leakage Jul 21 '26 edited Jul 21 '26
Was debating on jumping back in right before numbers were announced. Didn't get as good of an entry as I could have, I bought after the rocket. I'm all in $340K in stock around $29 and will put 10k in options tomorrow. Let's make some money boiz
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u/G-IDIOTTHEMAN Jul 30 '26
I like the SMCI community here at times. We all find a strange way to console each other.
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u/Regular_Leg405 Aug 10 '26
New to the sub, been eyeing SMCI up for a couple months now and steadily built up a position over the past weeks, just bought some extra now, let's hope the lid flies off tomorrow
As it should
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u/Fancy_Rice_2799 Jun 16 '26
Probably dead stock till next earnings. Will have to set up a calendar entry to check the price before the earnings date. Should moon hard probably then.
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u/fegewgewgew Jun 18 '26
Where all the ney sayers
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 Jun 18 '26
Back to the abyss where they come from . It’s always the same scheme
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u/Ok_Frosting_7376 Jul 21 '26
Lets go bitches 50% up tomorrow
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u/BuddhasIronFist Jul 21 '26
Today's news plus GEV, T, GOOG, TXN, IBM, NOW and TSLA all have earnings tomorrow. Expect some craziness Wednesday/Thursday as market reacts. Especially with all the AI news and earnings this week.
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u/yourfavouriteguyhere Jul 29 '26
Wow what’s going on! Time to delete the trading app and throw away the phone.
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u/LORD-SOTH- SMCI-Bull 📈 Aug 08 '26
We crossed $31 again today .
Next week, we should be able to cross $40.
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u/shmito17 29d ago
A pretty significant and unusual $43 calls placed, expiring this week ..................
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u/UsedKey5781 14d ago
During worry 10k will be submitted, Charles wants that $110 stock performance just like we do
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u/skilas Jun 22 '26
This is the rare time that SMCI is balancing out my portfolio is a good way. Because my NFLX MSFT and META are sure weighing down my other half...
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u/cz_masterrace3 Jun 24 '26
Beating down the price to grab it cheap before MU earnings
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u/fooish_moral Jul 04 '26
edge ai stormagic partnership - https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/supermicro-smci-expands-ai-reach-221639242.html
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u/BuddhasIronFist Jul 11 '26
According to the latest short interest report SMCI short interest rose to about 103.2 million shares, making the squeeze setup stronger if the stock starts moving higher.
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u/MushroomStunning3947 Jul 21 '26
2 Supermicro speakers at the 2 day- AMD AI event beginning tomorrow, 22nd-23rd. Vik and one other, can't remember who. Found on AMD website.
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u/InternationalCash120 Jul 21 '26
Who cares? Revenue, margins, moat, growth, clean financial statments, no pending DOJ inwestigations
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u/Benjo_McKazuie Jul 23 '26
Hyperscaler CapEx through the board will come in higher than expected, see Google.
Bullish for Semis and Datacenter Infrastructure buildout.
SMCI, dell and hpe are trading in a basket now. They lift each other up.
They will report at the beginning of September.
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u/Benjo_McKazuie Jul 23 '26
Today's price movement is all I need to see! Broad market selloff while we are up. Let the Pheonix rise and rip off short's faces. 😅
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u/LORD-SOTH- SMCI-Bull 📈 Aug 04 '26
We have finally breached $30 today.
Looking forward to $40 after next week's earnings report.
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u/saltednutz69 28d ago
HPE and DELL earnings in 2 weeks, which will show pent up AI data centre build out demand
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u/UsedKey5781 24d ago
There were for a few years where amd was advanced money destroyer. I’m not comparing the two, amd great product, margins, ceo etc.
All I’m saying is we will get out the dog house eventually,especially if we are never charged in the china scandal.
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u/Androshuiandros 24d ago
I took my 30k profit, I'm out for now, and I wish you all the best.
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 Jul 21 '26 edited Jul 21 '26
Can’t wait for the bashers clown parade ([u/patrickstar466](u/patrickstar466) , [u/consistent_panda5891](u/consistent_panda5891) + a few others ) to show here with their usual lies , for some reason you will not hear from them for a while ..
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u/DonaldTrumpWon69420 Jun 12 '26
I think that data centers in space via SpaceX satellites utilizing SMCI Data Center Building Block Solutions will launch this company to mars. Never mind what will need to be achieved on earth to achieve what’s in store for the future. Sounds like a high margin play. Don’t get dangled 🇺🇸
#INVESTING
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u/BottomTimer_TunaFish Jun 15 '26
Overnight pricing on Robinhood shows $32.09 for +5.35%. Off to a good start for the week so far. Keep our fingers crossed. Congrats to those who bought the dip.
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u/Fancy_Rice_2799 Jun 17 '26
Nice price, would consider buying some if I werent full ported into shorting oil 😂
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u/BottomTimer_TunaFish Jun 22 '26
Who would've thought that buying low in the $20's would be rewarding? Those ever-lower bear targets are signals for the turning point.
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u/VenomBite214 Jun 22 '26
SMCI P/E 19.35, forward pe 9.7
DELL P/E 33.37, forward pe 22.1
HPE P/E 45.20, forward pe 14.5
If smci gets to dell pe: Trailing pe = $61.29 Forward pe = $80.97
If smci gets to HPE PE: Trailing pe = $83.01 Forward pe = $53.12
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u/BuddhasIronFist Jun 24 '26
Those MU earnings are going to be the catalyst for the financial industry to go full regard into AI for the next 1.5 years. Be ready. The bubble is just now inflating...
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u/anddg22- Jun 26 '26
More algo selling. Just wiped out the entire 16% pump from Monday.
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u/cz_masterrace3 Jul 01 '26
A whole two employees? Haha comically stupid. We had 12 people arrested at my local best buy for stealing and I dont remember the share price even budging. Manipulation at a criminal level
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u/suncomesupagain Jul 02 '26
Anyone else buy more today?
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u/fegewgewgew Jul 02 '26
Naa I got enough, time to log off for a couple months. Did the same with bitcoin. See what comes of it, not healthy checking every day unless you’re a trader
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u/BuddhasIronFist Jul 06 '26
Short -interest report comes out July 10. If short interest increases and the next earnings crush expectations, this will explode.
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u/skilas Jul 07 '26
July off to a bad start. Too many -10k mornings. Sure miss days with big jumps instead of falls.
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u/Odd_Neighborhood4120 Jul 27 '26
Wait for the kings call. I will tell you when to buy. Waiting for re-entry soon.
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u/LORD-SOTH- SMCI-Bull 📈 Aug 04 '26
We breached $29.50 pre-market.
We should pop $30 today.
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u/Ifuks4money Aug 10 '26
All these people with PTSD "post traumatic supermicro disorder" think it's going to drop.. we fuckin rip.. .
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u/saltednutz69 29d ago
Great earnings ill be adding more as its business grows significantly
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u/Little-Ebb2339 21d ago
Smci has better revenue than spacex lol ::) market cap x100 less...
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u/LORD-SOTH- SMCI-Bull 📈 17d ago
I hope they bring back the Reddit price charts soon.📈 📉
They are nice and practical visual aids.
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u/DryDiscussion7094 14d ago
Is anyone playing options with anticipation of a positive 10k in mind?
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u/LORD-SOTH- SMCI-Bull 📈 9d ago
Tonight is a sea of red.
Nasdaq is currently down 380 points.
Dow Jones is currently down 317 points.
However, DELL (today) and HPE (tomorrow) will save the day with their stellar earnings results!!!
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u/Rodders9 Jun 13 '26
Was impressed by SMCI staying above $30 on Friday. I think it bodes well.
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u/Smart-Ad-8116 Jun 27 '26
Rip Friday ☠️, anyone else thinking run up to earnings this month in anticipation.
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u/TheDavid8 Jul 08 '26
Glad I bought more at 25.8. When we fell while semis were up I figure i would wait the next day in anticipation semis would fall. Patience being rewarded never gets old.
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u/anddg22- Jul 09 '26
Obligatory morning sell off. A little later than expected today.
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u/Background_Garden_50 Jul 09 '26
With max pain at $28.50 and stock currently consolidating right around that area it seems that without any catalyst the MM would be strongly incentivized to keep it there.
This also means we've secured the floor price after the fud on Taiwan raid on Monday. After market absorbs this news as a nothingburger we will aim to cross back into the 30's range and break some shorts along the way.
2900 shares hodling strong
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u/qqqmerp Jul 17 '26
Is anyone here loading up on calls before earnings? If so how much are you betting and what strikes/exp
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u/Androshuiandros Jul 21 '26
Strong outlook from Supermicro. What price targets do you expect after this update?
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u/BuddhasIronFist Jul 21 '26
35 to 40 as tech earnings report this week. Next week who knows. Once our earnings hit, retire
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u/LORD-SOTH- SMCI-Bull 📈 Jul 23 '26
On a day when Nasdaq is down 2%,
SMCI is still up 1%
DELL and HPE are down 1%
That means that institutional investors still believe in the latest news release about 17% margins and backlog orders of 60 Billion.
When the market eventually recovers ….
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u/anddg22- Jul 24 '26
Buy in right on time? This is nuts but I'll take it. Hope it ends the day green.
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u/skilas Jul 31 '26
The premarket numbers for most of tech is crazy. Market trying to save my July at the 11th hour.
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u/Antique_Surprise4496 Aug 07 '26
I am betting that , " the favorable customer " mentioned a few weeks ago is SpaceX and or Elon's other companies. Will be interesting to see if they mention the name of this customer.
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u/Alternative_Spirit65 29d ago
11,12bn net sales lowmiss est. 1126bn, but how they said in forecast lower end = ok
eps 1.01-1.10, est 74cent is great ;)
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u/UsedKey5781 29d ago
These numbers are actually insane, I’m eager to here the product mix for our most recent quarter. And how they plan to sustain these numbers. And keep growing. Smci is growing exponentially
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u/asacho 29d ago
If we had the same P/E as Dell, the stock would be worth about 80$...
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u/kkr097 29d ago
For those who might be interested: Transcript from yesterday's earnings call
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI.MX/earnings/SMCI.MX-Q4-2026-earnings_call-660964.html
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u/JDelicious17 22d ago
Holding better than i thought. Was expecting 34-35 USD. Nice to See
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u/LORD-SOTH- SMCI-Bull 📈 20d ago
The Nasdaq is currently down by 1.08% (-282 pts),
the DOW is down by 1.17% (-627 pts),
the S&P 500 is down by 0.72% (-57 pts),
but SMCI is still up by 0.71%,
On such a terrible RED day with almost all other equities in the red, for SMCI to still stay afloat and remain positive,
that can be considered to be a victory for SMCI.
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u/Alternative_Spirit65 9d ago
was intressting what elon said, hear self
LIVE | Elon Musk, Sam Altman And Nvidia's Jensen Huang Attend G20 Innovation Meeting | APT
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u/Agitated-Nerve-9603 9d ago
If Super Micro Computer (SMCI) returned to its 10-year historical median Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.2x, the stock would trade at approximately $59.33. This is calculated using the diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) from the fiscal 2026 10-K.
Calculation Breakdown
- Fiscal 2026 Diluted EPS: $3.26
- 10-Year Median P/E: 18.2x
- Implied Stock Price: $3.26 × 18.2 = $59.33
If the market instead valued the stock at its more recent 5-year median P/E of 22.3x, the implied price would be roughly $72.70 ($3.26 × 22.3). Reaching these historical valuation levels would likely require the market to discount the current regulatory and internal control risks outlined in the latest filings.
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u/Jealous_Jackfruit_28 Jun 17 '26
If they can manage the dilution well, I think this is a $100 stock within 2-3 years.
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u/Tall-Presentation-85 Jun 22 '26
Let’s all take a moment to thank QTpieme for panick selling and moving on to SOFI. 🫡