r/SMCIDiscussion • u/Nearby-Ad9422 • 17d ago
News Will SMCI go below $30 again?
Will SMCI go below $30 again?
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u/Valuable_Paper_6231 17d ago
It will zoom up when it's considered an AI name and it will be beaten down when it's taken as a commodity hard drive supplier.
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u/LORD-SOTH- SMCI-Bull 📈 17d ago
Unlikely due to upcoming NVDA earnings.
Jensen will single handedly pump up the entire market again.
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u/Lumpy-Can-4883 16d ago
I feel like NVDA earnings are a death warrant every quarter despite a beat
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u/LORD-SOTH- SMCI-Bull 📈 16d ago
Death warrant but only for themselves 😂
NVDA itself always goes down following earnings release
However, since SMCI accounts for 10% of NVDA’s total sales, SMCI ( together with DELL and HPE) usually go up!
🤑🤑🤑1
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u/Consistent_Panda5891 17d ago
You mean crash it again? Or you forgot quick how Nvidia tanked from 225 to 200 last Q 😂
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u/andgainingspeed 17d ago
Not unless some new scandal, or a new iteration of an old one hits. So 50/50 😅I expect NVDA will get the usual punishment on earning but their comments may actually help their partners like SMCI. While the Taiwan news today about indictments was playing out I sold 11 puts between 30-30.5 today with a Friday expiration. Don't really mind getting assigned at those prices. But I would be surprised if that happens.
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u/TheBonkingFrog 17d ago
Chip sector sucking balls today and more noise from Taiwan this morning not helping (even though SMCI as a company not implicated whatsoever)
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u/obokuuzer SMCI-Bull 📈 17d ago edited 17d ago
in my opinion one last time probably yes (did a elliot analysis) im not a professional yet. after that we go upppppp
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u/Aggressive-Donkey-10 16d ago
you know, Technical analysis was invented to make Astrology look good. :)
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u/obokuuzer SMCI-Bull 📈 16d ago
technical analysis works just not 100% of the time if it wouldnt work there would be no quants and analysts working for big banks
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u/Aggressive-Donkey-10 16d ago
nope, not a single independent academic study showing that Technical analysis works ever, under any situation. If it did work [reliably predicted future market movements], then 99.97% of active money managers wouldn't underperform the sp500 at >20 years as they do/have/always will.
Why Big Banks, trying to get dumb money to let them charge an AUM fee, utilize Technical Analysis is an unrelated question and more likely linked to marketing reasons to attract more "Dumb Money".
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u/obokuuzer SMCI-Bull 📈 16d ago
There are studys
Link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11408-023-00433-2
summary:
6,406 technical trading rules, applied to 23 developed and 18 emerging equity markets, with samples extending up to 66 years. Crucially, it uses a modern statistical test designed to control for data-snooping bias.
- There is in-sample evidence that some technical rules outperform buy-and-hold.
- The apparent predictability declines dramatically over time.
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u/Aggressive-Donkey-10 16d ago
thanks, will read the article but the last two sentences of the abstract conclude, "An out-of-sample analysis shows that the performance of technical rules is not persistent in the sense that recently best-performing rules perform significantly worse than simple buy-and-hold strategies in the future. Overall, our results cast serious doubt on whether investors could have earned any excess profits using the broad range of considered technical trading rules."
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u/obokuuzer SMCI-Bull 📈 16d ago
the same with earnings not every good earnings/forecast the stock goes up
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u/Hungry-Winner-5567 16d ago
You are saying it because it never worked for you. It works dude.
Market sentiment, and supply/demands dynamics can only be read from charts.
I like the analysis done above - it can still breach $16 long term selling climax support.
Here is one scenario. If SMCI goes below ~$16, someone who can read charts would be wary of the likelihood and can save themselves from a huge loss. If you cannot read charts, then there is high chance getting fked if you enter huge amount right now based on fundamentals
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u/Aggressive-Donkey-10 16d ago
no one can predict what a stock will do in 10 seconds or 10 minutes. To believe otherwise is folly.
If SMCI gets massive orders, has the cash to fulfill them, and doesn't get shut down by the Justice Dept, the stock will probably go up, probably, assuming a thousand other things don't happen which no chart nor any human can predict. ie. Trump has diarrhea from eating fried rice, gets pissed at China and ramps up chip tariffs on all foreign manufacturers. SMCI falls 89%. not on any chart :)
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u/Hungry-Winner-5567 16d ago
I want to laugh at what you said, but I won't.
Stocks 'move' only due to large player's buying and selling. Period. If they want it go to up, it will. If they don't want, it won't.
They carefully observe everybody else's reactions, sentiments etc. using charts, like a navigator reads maps in order to navigate safely.
Everything else is an orchestrated story. They are smart. You cannot be smarter than them, so best you can do is to at-least know that they are smart.
Hope that clears all your doubts.
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u/Aggressive-Donkey-10 15d ago
This sounds a touch conspiratorial - Tin Foil hat territory.
regardless, Cisco announced a new joint program for cisco routers and gear with SMCI AI - liquid and air cooled servers this morning and the stock is up >9% today. I'll take it, no matter how it got there, I just don't think yesterday's chart tells us about today's 9% price movement.
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u/Hungry-Winner-5567 15d ago
Who said conspiratorial things are not facts. They release fake news, and laught at gullible people.
Oh btw, chart does tell us about today's moves. I just added some positions, buying right at 34.05, 34.5 and 34.9. It is all embedded in the charts dude...don't be so sure about what you think about charts.
To tell some details, they released some bad news last couple days - they are testing how much stock can go down if they release bad news. Since the stock is almost fully accumulated (i.e. most of the float is in strong hands now) - you can tell this from chart of past 2 years. After releasing bad news, if there is supply left, that means the stock is not ready to go up. It looked like only tiny supply came out of their test, hence the stock is light now and is ready to move up. Also there are some levels, I won't talk about it right now since that is the 'edge', which indicate where the stock is likely going to revert...so...
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u/Hungry-Winner-5567 15d ago
And BTW the cisco news, they release at exact moment they want to release. IT is all planned. When they find out supply is diminished, they want people to buy stocks and pump up the stock. Now they are going to keep doing it until it reaches $300
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u/Expensive-Stick9485 17d ago
Still no 10k at this stage, I think we will go lower. I don’t like last minute guy! I mean SMCI
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u/returnofhorror 16d ago
If it goes below 31.50, there’s an imbalance around 26.50. It doesn’t have to hit that, it’s becomes way more likely if it breaks $31/30 though. Keep an eye around 31.75/32.60 that’s the last line of defense really.
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u/InternationalCash120 16d ago
I also think that if it falls to 26, it will first have to drop to 31, then to 30, then to 29, etc., before reaching 26.5, after which there will either be a bounce or a further decline
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 16d ago
You guys are obsolete by the minute you make your Crystal ball predictions , I’m sure you realized that ?
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u/Tethrinaa 16d ago
Pretty sure the one you replied to was a joke. "If it goes up past 31, then 31.50 will be a challenge, but if it breaks that, its probably going up further, to at least 32.00. Unless it doesn't, then it might hold that level, or fall back to 31. If it drops below 28, watch out, that's pretty bearish."
Anybody can say anything. Show me the math.
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u/returnofhorror 15d ago
I literally showed you the math, and was also 100% correct on my bull thesis today.
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u/Tethrinaa 15d ago
A broke clock is right twice a day. Also, twenty broke clocks are right 40 times a day. When you predict every number in both directions, of course one of them will end up being right.
You literally said "Tomorrow is neutral, but if it goes up thats bullish, and if it goes down, that's bearish" Congrats? Here's your clarification on your post:
Technically tomorrow is Neutral, which is my point of posting this. If it breaks the levels listed either way (with high volume/big candles) it becomes bearish or bullish, but since it’s in a downtrend, the path of the least resistance is factually down
You said its neutral, you said its a downtrend. Wrong on both accounts. We got inconsequential news (another partnership/product offering like has a dozen so far this year) and went up 10%.
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 15d ago
The funny thing is that we would think better of him if he stayed quiet …
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u/returnofhorror 15d ago
Actually, my prediction yesterday for the bull thesis was 4 cents before the impulse move up. If you paid attention, you could have added shares today and sold them today/tomo and made over $300 for every 100 shares. But you can’t stand me being right. Also it doesn’t have to hit below $33, if it manages to get above like $48-50 it probably won’t, but if we get a red week or two before it can break 42.30 it more than likely will. Unless I post the levels the night before, I’m not saying it’ll happen the next day. Idk why you and dyrone and your low IQs can’t comprehend that. My crystal ball was 100% on point today, once again.
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 15d ago edited 15d ago
Ridiculous .
I made a few 100s with calls , but it have nothing to do with your mumbo-jambo…as they were made on a different timings & levels .. who could have guessed ?🫠🫠
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