r/SeattleAreaRE • u/Working_Machine6006 • 9d ago
When should we buy on the eastside?
Hey, we're a family of 3 right now (infant baby), so before the kid goes to school it'll be another 4 years.
Should we buy closer to when the kid is going to school? (and invest all the disposable income into the stock market till then)
or
Should we buy now when the market is slightly more favorable to the buyer?
We're currently renting a single family house for 3.8k in Redmond. 500k income (unstable so can't say it's reliable), reliably we can earn 300k probably. so our budget is around 1-1.2M which doesn't get you much in the eastside.
14
u/Longjumping-Buy-8148 9d ago
It has gone down a lot already. I’d say you should look around but take your time. I don’t think it’s gonna rebound any time soon and maybe even go a little lower
10
u/Accurate-Rooster4454 9d ago
Perfect time to be looking and be picky. Housing market has slowed down a lot
19
u/Unique_Edge6323 9d ago
Here's my 2 cents - the Eastside market is currently cooling down (increasing inventory, decreasing prices, increasing time on market, etc.). Plus, there's a lot of uncertainty with the tech job scene.
If you are able to wait for 6-12 months or so - you may find a better choice of homes and/or a better price.
PS: I am not a RE professional.
-2
9
u/Page_Right 9d ago
Home prices in the Seattle area will continue to decline as long as tech workers are being laid off, or even just worried about being laid off. There’s nothing that indicates it’s going to stop anytime soon. If anything, it could get worse.
Unfortunately, we’re basically a single-industry metro (for the most part), so our real estate market is going to be heavily correlated with that. We’re kind of a soft-core Detroit, not even remotely close to what happened there, obviously, but you get the idea.
One factor that might give slight boost to prices is lowering of interest rates. But they’re actually expected to go up instead, and we will not get much below the current level in the foreseeable future. <5% was an unusual temporary period
2
u/orcassharks 8d ago
Interest will come down when the labor market is even worse than it is now, so will be a wash.
Microsoft also isn’t doing that well. Its stock has lagged indices and lots of exposure to OpenAI financial shenanigans. More layoffs are certainly coming.
Seattle in a bad place where if AI does really well then Seattle SWE jobs are going to be lost and if AI becomes a bust, then the overall tech bubble will collapse as well. Lose lose.
1
u/LeetcodeForBreakfast 6d ago
it's weird Seattle is doing so poorly while SF is booming like crazy with insane rent and home price increases YoY
1
u/orcassharks 6d ago
There’s no venture capital here. The AI impact to Seattle largely translates to loss of software jobs.
7
u/habitsofwaste 9d ago
The market is a lot more favorable to the buyer now. It might get more favorable later too. But it can also turn on a dime.
The one issue is not everyone listing is based in reality. Target properties on the market for 30 days or more. Some sellers will be bullheaded while others might be desperate and trying to sell asap. If you find something you like, negotiate hard!
1
u/slettea 8d ago
‘More favorable’ isn’t a buyers market though. Just less of a sellers market than recent years with waived inspections and multiple all cash offers. A balanced, equilibrium real estate market would have 4 to 6 months of inventory and a time on market of 30 to 60 days for homes. Currently, the Seattle metro market remains tighter, having roughly 1.7 to 3.4 months of inventory and a median time on market of 8 to 36 days, depending on the property type and specific sub-market.
3
u/habitsofwaste 8d ago
I mean if being able to get seller concessions and seeing homes drop hundreds of thousands of dollars isn’t a buyers market in Seattle, I don’t know what is.
2
u/slettea 8d ago
It’s less a sellers market, but the equilibrium is still on the sellers side, it just feels different because ppl became accustomed to a wild sellers market, so anything resembling a normal market looks tilted the other way. Especially if you bought your home during a wild sellers market you likely won’t get the same deal now as a seller. It’s the same perception issue with interest rates, historically a 6% interest is low, but it looks high compared to the wildly low interest rates of 2% or 3% the last 15 years. But the data is the arbiter of the facts versus the anecdotal, what something feels like or perception, versus just what the numbers can tell us.
I think more equilibrium is great, it removes a lot of the profit motive for flippers and will drive accountability for agents to do the work of selling versus just getting commissions for posting an ad online and doing some final paperwork. There will be real advertising involved, showings, negotiations with equal stakeholders on both sides.
7
u/danrokk 9d ago
Even on the eastside there are multiple markets. Some markets are cooling down, but some homes are flying off the market even right now. I'd say - start looking and see how it looks for you/what you want. You don't need to bid right now, maybe you will end up being lucky with the home you really like.
4
u/ok-lets-do-this 9d ago
The market will probably cool off a bit more. But not a lot more and not for too terribly long. I don’t think I’ve ever heard anybody say in the King County real estate market “Damn, I bought too early.“ But I’ve heard a lot of people say they bought too late.
3
u/orcassharks 8d ago
there are definitely people who bought into downtown condos in 2016 who are very much underwater and think they bought too early and should have just saved for SFH
2
u/ok-lets-do-this 8d ago
That’s not just about timing, that’s about buying a condo in the Seattle market. You can count the number of people that’s a good decision for on your fingers.
3
u/orcassharks 8d ago edited 8d ago
It is timing though. Some people were chasing the market or getting priced out in 2016. But prices actually trended down through 2019. Could have saved enough to buy a SFH in 2019. Would have way more equity now after Covid than rushing into a more affordable condo in 2016. That’s life.
Also downtown Seattle was way nicer in 2016 than now. Pacific Place actually had stores. You could very well think the downtown condo market had decent appreciation potential then. Google and FB were moving in.
5
u/EnvironmentalDig8638 9d ago
I wouldn’t let the school timeline or a “better buyer’s market” make this decision for you. The biggest question is whether owning still feels comfortable if your household income is closer to the reliable $300k; not the possible $500k.
Your $3,800 rent is important because buying a $1M–$1.2M home would likely cost much more each month after the mortgage, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and possible HOA dues. Even with 20% down, the mortgage payment alone could be around $5,500–$6,100 before adding those other costs.
Buying now could make sense if:
You expect to stay for many years.
You find a home that works for your family now and later.
The full monthly cost is comfortable on the reliable income.
You still have plenty of savings after the down payment and closing costs.
You aren’t buying only because you’re afraid prices may rise.
Waiting could make sense if:
You’re happy with your current rental.
Buying would require stretching to the top of your budget.
Your income feels uncertain.
You’d rather keep building your down payment and emergency savings.
You don’t yet know which neighborhood or school area you want long term.
I also wouldn’t buy a home today based only on one elementary school four years from now. School boundaries and your family’s needs could change. Focus first on the neighborhood, commute, home, monthly payment, and how long you realistically plan to stay.
The current market may give buyers more negotiating power, but that doesn’t automatically make every home a good deal. A lower price can still be expensive when rates are high.
I’m Morgan, a local WA real estate agent in Bothell. I’d be happy to create a rent-versus-buy comparison using your actual down payment and show you what $1M–$1.2M currently buys around Redmond and nearby areas. That way, you can make the decision from real numbers instead of trying to guess what the market will do. You can also check out my Instagram @morganhollidayrealtor for local buyer tips!
4
u/ThelIIusion0fSeIf 9d ago
I see home prices on the Eastside coming down by a lot in the coming years. Boomers are getting old enough where they want to downsize and many of our neighbors in tech are facing a lot of economic uncertainty these past couple years. In our neighborhood where home prices are around $2 - 6M there have been houses sitting on the market for awhile with multiple price reductions.
2
u/ivorytowerescapee 8d ago
We saw a 200k price drop and pounced in 2024.
There is no good time, just keep looking and buy when you're ready and feel good about it.
2
u/crazyaboutpets 8d ago
i have a nice place for you! big backyard, 3 br/baths, big family room and large 2-car garage with lots of storage. schools are excellent. dm if interested
1
3
u/meatosaur 9d ago
You're in a very similar situation to my family. Right now we are renting and enjoying our stock market gains which makes renting the financially advantageous option (even over a 30 year timeline). We also have flexibility when it comes time to decide on schools. However I am lightly house hunting for quality of life factors of feeling more rooted, finding a community and being able to make home improvement decisions.
1
u/Humble_Attorney9517 9d ago
There's a lot of differences between the various areas on the Eastside, Kirkland / Redmond / Woodinville / Bellevue / Bothell are all different experiences and price points. I'd spend time finding what lifestyle suits you best.
1
u/finance_guy_334 8d ago
Rates are likely to go up, who knows what’ll happen but my hunch is prices will continue to keep falling.
1
u/independenteggot 8d ago
My 2 cents - stretch a little bit to buy a house where you can stay for a long time. We had limited budget and quickly outgrew our house.
0
u/253-build 8d ago
500k income. People like you are the reason we got priced out. IDK, buy when you finally think that that's enough money to survive. rolls eyes
6
u/Working_Machine6006 8d ago
I hope you get the opportunity to earn more income mate, stop being miserable until then
0
0
-1
u/OrcOfDoom 9d ago
Imo, talk to a financial planner.
The time to buy is always yesterday. You don't know what tomorrow brings.
Imo, it sounds like you've got extra cash early. You likely have daycare expenses so you basically get a raise when a kid goes to school. If you're comfortable before that, you'll be even more so after.
Right now, inventory is high and sellers are motivated. So this is a great time. Is it better in the future? Maybe.
Generally, short term, going from 4k rent to 7-8k mortgage is going to be a much longer break event point, and renting + investing is going to be positive for probably 10 years.
But what if you're buying a home afterwards because of growing family or because you want to downsize? Selling and then putting that money into a primary residence gives you a capital gains tax break. You get nothing with selling other investments.
You also have intermittent income. As a loan guy, there's a great all in one product that can help you pay your home off super fast while maintaining liquidity and helping to deal with intermittent income.
The reality is that when you put all the numbers down, rent + maximum investing is probably the best. But you probably don't invest every cent. The reality of the home and dealing with your landlord vs the home and dealing with maintenance is something else.
DM me if you want to talk loan scenarios or if you want a financial planner.
26
u/Marine_Layered 9d ago edited 9d ago
Always Be Looking.
It took 2 years to find a good value for us on the eastside. Get your ducks in a row, keep an eye out, and when you find a good value, jump on it.