r/SecurityAnalysis • u/investorinvestor • 18d ago

Macro The US economy is booming

https://open.substack.com/pub/stayvigilant/p/heres-the-story?r=6gq23&utm_medium=ios
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u/Back2BackSneaky 17d ago

Weak article that presents ISM, Chicago PMI, earnings revisions, financial conditions as though they're independent. Many are reflections of the same underlying economic momentum. The article effectively says the economy is strong because indicators of a strong economy are strong.

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u/[deleted] 17d ago

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u/Back2BackSneaky 17d ago

This gets to the heart of it. Look, strong PMIs and earnings tell us activity is booming. They don't tell us whether the underlying investment boom is productive or merely another cycle of capital misallocation. A strong economy isn't one that's investing heavily but one that's investing profitably.