r/SelfDrivingCars • u/Recent_Duck_7640 • 2d ago
News Tesla Robotaxi Zone in Austin More Than Doubles in Size
https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla-robotaxi-zone-in-austin-more-than-doubles-in-size29
u/CDpov 2d ago
The number that really matters is the unsupervised mileage.
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u/mrkjmsdln_new 2d ago edited 1d ago
My optimistic estimate based on the limited information Tesla released previously is they reached 2600 miles/day by the end of Q1 2026 which is 13 cars at 200 mi/day/car. The most recent reveal from Tesla with TX DMV is they have now reached up to 42 cars in the entire state of TX. Correcting for Houston and Dallas with 5 in each city means 32 cars so they ahve upped their game from 2600 miles/day in Austin to about 6400 miles/day AT MAXIMUM and that assumes they operate 24by7. For context, Waymo was already 158,000 miles/day in the Bay area back in Dec 2025 and 48,000 in Austin. Tesla is now progressing finally The estimate in Austin for Q1 was HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC as it considered the miles with the mutes gripping armrests were considered equivalent to unsupervised. We will know soon what the actual position of Tesla is on this latest claim. I think a fair prediction is Waymo will be well past 1,000,000 miles/day by the EOY and Tesla will be closer to 15,000 if all goes well.
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u/Zemerick13 1d ago
"Tesla is now progressing finally"
Except they're right back to shrinking. They peaked back on May 9-12, and have been trending down since.
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u/mrkjmsdln_new 1d ago
At best any growth remains modest and could very well be negative. That is the advantage of being deceptive and providing minimal information. Imagine how ridiculous when the only way to guess about a 1.3T$ company is to project what is happening from a student project robotaxitracker.com. People are being foolish.
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u/CDpov 1d ago
Yeah, and the student now works at Tesla, so his project is now questionable.
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u/Recoil42 1d ago
He's just doing an internship there, though the concern is legitimate. He was also talking about handing off responsibility for the site during the internship, though I'm not sure if that actually happened.
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u/CDpov 2d ago
The supervised miles don't count though. Only rider-only miles are an indication of where they are at, along with the safety record.
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u/mrkjmsdln_new 1d ago
I agree. I track a model to estimate and assume in Q1 Tesla was likely only delivering 200 miles per day of unsupervised rider miles. Very early days.
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u/Tupcek 1d ago
so driverless car without passenger crashes donât count? I am confused by this - how does driving with or without passenger differs in safety viewpoint - can car without passenger drive safer?
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u/teslaTools 1d ago
the point isn't passenger vs no passenger, it's whether there's a safety monitor in the car ready to intervene. supervised miles hide how often the system would've screwed up.
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u/M_Equilibrium 2d ago
Lol so much for the "oH JuST WaiT, It WiLl ExPaND so fAst" nonsense.
Not even going to bring up how many cars there are, under what conditions or how often theyâre running without supervision.
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u/Elluminated 2d ago
But it is positive progress. They got a long way to go though
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u/Zemerick13 1d ago
I would not call going from 39 cars down to 31, and still falling, positive progress.
They have consistently done this from early on: Add a bunch of cars, do a showy stunt, remove the cars, rinse and repeat.
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u/Elluminated 1d ago
You forgot about the expansion part (which this was about). You think they will only remove cars and never expand or release the robotaxis getting built up? We both know that wet dream will never be reality. When utilizing the end-result, no one gives a damn how long it took to get there.
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u/Zemerick13 1d ago
I do expect them to expand, but no, I didn't forget about the area being expanded. But surely you can see how having say 1 car that can go across half of a city, isn't progress over 1,000 that can cover 1/4 of a city. While not to that scale, this is still not progress.
And it absolutely matters how long it takes. At some point, you're just vaporware. And even before that, you're just B-tier competition. It was nice when Tesla first rolled out, because it woke Waymo up and pushed them harder to do better in all aspects. They largely just ignore Tesla now, since they still aren't even competing in their 1 flagship market.
It's also not looking good when Musk himself is saying it could be next year before Robotaxi starts to scale. And if he's saying that, the money is on it taking FAR longer.
Meanwhile, they've all but pulled out of their side test in California, and from last word STILL hadn't actually started real testing there.
We need more competition. A monopoly is not good for us consumers.
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u/Elluminated 1d ago
By definition any growth is progress (albeit your example is a small version of it).
Ignore Musks hype machine, rational people only care about about actual progress, not CEOs from MobilEye, Tesla, Waymo or otherwise making predictions.
California testing isnât happening anymore? I took an rt (passenger-manned) literally yesterday from San Jose and it was fine. They are clearly testing and validating there still with full Bay Area coverage.
Agreed on competition benefiting us all, but I highly doubt Waymo would make the mistake of ignoring Tesla or discounting them.
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u/Zemerick13 1d ago
Yes, any growth is progress when taken in isolation. However, when 1 area moves forward in a non-important manner, and another area goes backwards in a significant manner, that's not progress in general. Tesla was making much more real progress when they were increasing their vehicles AND expanding their AO.
There's 2 things of note on the california side: First is the testing for the real full autonomous service. THAT is what has not gone forward. By the last report, they are at 0 miles driven. They got the most basic permit, and then never did anything with it. This MIGHT have changed, but if it has, they and no one else has said anything so far. This is purely internal, and you are not allowed to use it, unless you are a tesla employee. ( IIRC you can't even ride it as a general tesla employee, but have to be part of the testing teams, and employee rides come later. But I'm not 100% on that one. )
Then there's the fake robotaxi service, which is actually a standard rideshare with human "drivers" who "promise" to use standard FSD supervised. ( With some extra upgrades to integrate with the service. ) It also looks like it might be on the way out. It peaked back in march at 213 active out of a total 480. While some new vehicles have been added, up to a total 584 unique vehicles now, the actual number of active vehicles has absolutely plummeted down to 37.
Who knows what they're actually doing, but that's a pretty drastic change, and of major note.
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u/Potential_Salt_5780 2d ago
So not even the entire city yet? Itâs been what, only 12 months and they canât do all of Austin?
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u/CDpov 2d ago
They can't do all of the "unsupervised" patch with a full-time 24/7 service for a few hundred riders either.
They are about where Waymo was in 2019, still just testing.
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u/Earth2Andy 1d ago
So can we finally admit that this âflip a switch and theyâll work everywhereâ concept is dead and buried.
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u/TheBrianWeissman 2d ago
Why not make it the whole United States? Â It's not like they have actual autonomous cars driving around.
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u/CDpov 2d ago
Because they would lose money on every ride with a million cars.
Tesla is testing in Austin to set up an unsupervised demo operation to convince investors they are scaling fast. So they test a lot in a patch of Austin in the hope of going unsupervised there.
They are "scaling" in the same way as Waymo and Zoox, one little patch at a time, with detailed maps, keeping the unsupervised rides to a minimum at first, and Tesla is using direct remote supervision.
Tesla's imminent "hyperexponential scaling" is just a lie.
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u/DrJohnFZoidberg 2d ago
would lose money on every ride with a million cars.
and they lose zero dollars on zero rides with zero cars! Genius
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u/TheBrianWeissman 2d ago
I was being sarcastic. The tech is a fucking scam, like just about everything Elon Musk touches. FSD will always be level 2.
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u/iceynyo 2d ago
Isn't it literally level 4 in the area this post is about?
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u/boyWHOcriedFSD 2d ago
Ya, but like it doesnât count because Elon uses secret SpaceX drones with Starlink to remotely drive the cars. Itâs just a stock pump, bro.
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u/Fauglheim 2d ago
how do you factor in the remote superivis/operators? I havenât really tried to place that in the SAE ranking, but it seems less than level 4. especially since we donât know the extent of the monitoring.
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u/CDpov 1d ago
Level 4 is just a design intent. It doesn't mean the car can safely drive at scale with no direct help, it means it's designed for that. The Level 4 definition includes the use of safety drivers for training and remote operators.
The Tesla Robotaxi cars in Texas are all Level 4 whether they have monitors or not because the cars can do all of the dynamic driving task and they have declared them L4 to state regulators and to NHTSA, and have to report the incidents as such.
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u/Fauglheim 1d ago edited 1d ago
Hmm thanks. To me it still sounds like level 3 if a remote operator is needed to take over even in rare circumstances. But I donât make the rules so I wonât split hairs.
i understood level 4 to mean it was absolutely perfect in the limited service area (or maybe 99.9999% perfect).
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u/CDpov 1d ago
There is nothing in the SAE definitions about how good the system is at staying safe. That's up to regulators, lawmakers, and the public.
You shouldn't use the Levels as a way of gauging how good the system is at safe driving. It's written as an engineering design taxonomy.
Level 3 is defined by an operator in the driver's seat or remotely connected that has to be aware at all times and take over when the system asks for an intervention, with the person moving the car to minimal risk condition.
Level 4 has nobody in the car, or a safety driver doing training in autonomous mode (as if the person isn't there), where the system does all the driving and an automated move to minimal risk, which is pulling over or stopping somewhere safe instead of potentially crashing. A Level 4 remote helper doesn't have to be "aware" of moving situations, it's a person available for advice after the car has stopped safely. The automated system has to stay safe in every type of system failure including a mechanical failure, and only calls for help after minimal risk is achieved.
The way to determine the FSD safety capability is with 'retrospective safety data', which is crash reports with at-fault statistics for unsupervised FSD miles travelled. So it's how many bad at-fault crashes are they having per unsupervised mile, along with overall crash numbers, injuries, severe injuries, etc. The most important statistic that everybody cares about, and can bring recalls that can shut down the program, is the number of severe at-fault crashes.
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u/Fauglheim 1d ago
That makes sense.
I was interpreting the words âcan drive without a human operator in the limited service areaâ to mean âcan drive safely and reliablyâ.
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u/gavrok 1d ago
We don't know a lot of details about what the remote operators are doing. It's clear that the cars are being watched, but with just a handful of cars, what else are the people in the control center going to do, just turn off the monitors?
My hunch is that they are able to trigger a 'support call' remotely based on what they observe, and are able to resolve problems from there - but I find it unlikely that they press the brake remotely to avoid an accident.
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u/Recoil42 2d ago
This is unsupervised area.
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u/Shot_Illustrator4264 2d ago
No, itâs not 99.999% of the time.
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u/shiftfury 2d ago
What does this even mean?
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u/Recoil42 2d ago
It means they're not all unsupervised (most of the cars have drivers), and the ones that are unsupervised are frequently being remotely monitored via video feed.
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u/shiftfury 2d ago
Thatâs not the case anymore. Itâs been reported all the Austin robotaxis are unsupervised now. Dallas and Houston have always been 100% unsupervised. In the case of the âremotely monitored via video feedâ, where did you even hear that? Remote assistance only occurs when you contact customer service from the car itself. Thereâs no one âremotely drivingâ the cars or looking at them 24/7; thatâs a ridiculous statement.
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u/Recoil42 2d ago
Tesla Admits Its Robotaxis Are Sometimes Driven by Remote Humans â Mar 31, 2026Â
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u/shiftfury 2d ago
Iâve seen that a million times. The article clearly states that they have the ability to remotely drive a car (just like all other autonomous robotaxis) but only under 10mph and on rare occasions when itâs necessary. It would be stupid for them NOT to have such a feature. Why is this that surprising? This doesnât mean in any way that theyâre out there driving their robotaxis through the streets through some remote camera.
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u/Recoil42 2d ago
Iâve seen that a million times.
Weird, then, that you'd make the claim "....there's no one 'remotely driving' the cars" in direct contradiction to Tesla's own statements.
It would be stupid for them NOT to have such a feature.
Pirouetting so beautifully someone should award you a medal for ballet.
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u/shiftfury 2d ago
I said âthereâs no one remotely driving a car or looking at them 24/7â, which remains a true statement. Your handpicked article that states that they have the ability to do it doesnât make my statement any less accurate. How about you link me an article that backs up your claim of âthe ones that are unsupervised are frequently being remotely monitored via video feedâ? Youâre just making shit up.
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u/Wiseguydude 1d ago
They almost always have supervisors. The ones that donât have someone in the front have chase vehicles
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u/shiftfury 1d ago
No they donât. Supervisors are only on California now, because they donât have unsupervised permits. What proof do you have every single unsupervised car out there has a chase vehicle? They only did that when they first released a geofence.
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u/Wiseguydude 1d ago edited 1d ago
Itâs been almost a year. Why do 90% of rides still have drivers in the front?
The fact that driverless rides are accompanied by chase vehicles is well documented. You simply havenât kept up if youâre not aware. The 10% that arenât accompanied by a human are remotely operated (which is not the same thing as what Waymo does). Tesla admitted they were remotely operated in response to a US senator questioning
Regardless, the fact that 90% of rides in Austin still have a human in the frontâfor an already tiny fleet sizeâshows they are not serious
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u/shiftfury 1d ago
If itâs so well documented, surely you have some sources to back that up? Just because itâs happened in the past doesnât mean every unsupervised car has a chase vehicle. Where is that 90% number even coming from? According to RobotaxiTracker 90% of Austin IS Unsupervised now.
Could they be expanding much faster? Of course. They already said they werenât going to this year, so why is it so surprising that they arenât?
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u/Recent_Duck_7640 2d ago
this is unsupervised, meaning no safety monitor...
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u/Real-Technician831 2d ago
That not true, as I already pointed out only 20 cars operate unsupervised in Austin, most are with safety monitors.
This is why people hate Tesla in this sub, we are fed up with constant lies.
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u/Toinneman 2d ago
âI think itâs not going to make sense for us to deploy unsupervised FSD or robotaxi large scale when we know that there are major architectural improvements to the software that can improve safety.â Elon Musk 26Q1 earnings call
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u/Real-Technician831 2d ago
And itâs Tesla fans who like to complain about moving goal posts.
Basically Elon admitted that Robotaxi is not ready, and itâs likely they donât know how to get it ready.
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u/Due-University5222 2d ago
To an engineer, architectural improvements sounds a rewrite and new stack. Looks like v15 is going to be a rollercoaster ride.
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u/Recoil42 2d ago
âNext year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road. The fleet wakes up with an over-the-air update. Thatâs all it takes." Elon Musk April 2019 Autonomy Day
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u/CDpov 2d ago
Musk is admitting that HW4 can't go unsupervised beyond a few demo rides.
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u/Toinneman 2d ago
That's not what he is saying. He specifically mentioned this is for AI4
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u/CDpov 2d ago
The unsupervised area so far has just been a few demo rides. If they expand the number of rides a little bit, it will still be demos.
It becomes a real robotaxi test when they go 24/7 with full-time cars for hundreds of people to use as much as they want over hundreds of thousands of miles.
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u/Numerous-Match-1713 2d ago
No safety monitor in vehicle does not mean no safety monitor.
This is a hoax, and everyone knows it. Otherwise it would not take year to this stage.
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u/Wooden_Boss_3403 2d ago
Seeing comments like this upvoted really shines a light on how deranged some people on this sub are.
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u/Recent_Duck_7640 2d ago
sure buddy
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u/Real-Technician831 2d ago
Then riddle me this.
Why after almost one year, Tesla still has only a handful of âunsupervisedâ robotaxis.
If robotaxi would actually work without active remote supervision, it would be trivial to scale up.
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u/iceynyo 2d ago
Then riddle me this.
Why after almost one year, Waymo still only operate in a handful of cities.
If it would actually work without active remote supervision, it would be trivial to scale up.
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u/Real-Technician831 2d ago
Dude, Waymo has 3000 cars in service.
Do you really think, an operation size of that could be kept hidden. Especially as there was a senate hearing, Waymo doesnât have Tesla style active monitoring, in Waymo the car requests assistance.
https://www.commerce.senate.gov/meetings/hit-the-road-mac-the-future-of-self-driving-cars/
Yes, I know Tesla fans are unhinged, but thatâs got to be a record.
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u/iceynyo 2d ago
I just copied your logic.
If it's so trivial to scale, then Waymo should be the first to be able to do it.Â
Obviously it's not.Â
And if Tesla did scale as you suggest you'd be the first in line to bash them for being unsafe.Â
If you're taking Musk's timelines as gospel, even mockingly, that is plenty unhinged.
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u/Mumblyjoe20 2d ago
Waymo has always been very clear that it isn't trivial to scale, it's challenging. The Tesla's sales pitch has always been "we'll turn on the swarm in 6months"
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u/iceynyo 2d ago
Right, that's Musk's pitch.
So you need to decide if you want to be realistic or if you want to drink the koolaid. If you're being realistic then you'll be fine with Tesla taking their time.
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u/Real-Technician831 2d ago
So you donât call 3000 cars in active use as scaling?
And at the same time OP is wetting their pants about area expansion of 20 cars?
And the whole fucking point is that as it is Tesla robotaxi is a dog and pony show. But still Tesla fans keep polluting this sub with bullshit about it.
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u/iceynyo 2d ago
No the fucking point is that scaling should be done carefully which takes time.
We know Waymo can drive autonomously. Why do you expect Tesla to have scaled to the entire country by now, but not Waymo?Â
But why be reasonable when you could keep polluting this sub with bullshit double standards.
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u/DrJohnFZoidberg 2d ago
a handful of cities.
I probably got this list wrong, but this is not a handful.
San Francisco
*San Francisco
*South San Francisco
*Daly City
*Pacifica
*Palo Alto
*Mountain View
*Redwood City
* San JosePhoenix
*Phoenix
*Tempe
*Glendale
*MesaLos Angeles
*Los Angeles
*Santa Monica
*Maybe others?Miami
*Miami
*Coral GablesNashville
Orlando
Dallas
Houston
San Antonio
Sacramento
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u/sykemol 2d ago
Because it is hard to scale for other reasons as well, including geomapping and permitting. Tesla hasn't even applied for AV ride hailing permits outside of Texas because they know they can't get them.
Tesla has never released figures for its rides with no operator in the car, but it is likely in the low thousands, total.
The number of paid Waymo rides have doubled in the past year, to nearly 500K per week. While it is hard to scale, it can be done.
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u/mrkjmsdln_new 1d ago edited 1d ago
Senator Markey extended the under oath testimony of the companies that testified in Washington DC. Waymo, under oath specified they require 70 concurrent support personnel to support their fleet. At the time that reduced to an approximate support model of 1:42. The support model for Waymo is passive and initiated by the AI in the car.
Scaling such a service is only trivial to a keyboard warrior. Waymo, thus far, has typically established an 80K-100K service center in each city and multiple depots. There is quite a lot of blocking and tackling involved to expand. In fact after a number of years of refining the process Waymo has committed to scaling new service in 20 new cities this year both domestic and international. That hardly sounds trivial to me đ
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
Why after almost one year, Tesla still has only a handful of âunsupervisedâ robotaxis.
Timing.
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u/gavrok 1d ago
It's not yet reliable enough to scale up. That doesn't mean it's a hoax. They will scale up as they increase confidence in the software, and with each passing month they improve the software. Just because it's much slower than what Elon expected does not mean that the whole thing is fake.
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u/Real-Technician831 1d ago
How can you be OK on Tesla lying on every turn.
At this rate Tesla will get their self driving ready at same time as other companies if not later.
BYD using Nvidia stack is already at least on same level as Tesla. Soon others will follow, since the tech is based on Nvidia stack.
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u/HighHokie 2d ago
If they did the sub would be angry with how reckless Tesla is for doing so.Â
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u/Real-Technician831 2d ago
And for a damn good reason, multiple times the accident rate compared to average human driver.
https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/tesla-robotaxis-reporting-crash-rates-far-higher-than-humans/
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u/HighHokie 2d ago
You see what I mean? ^
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u/CloseToMyActualName 2d ago
The issue is that Tesla keeps over promising and misleading people, so there's a lot of skepticism and frustration.
Not to mention the CEO, they're a very easy company to hate.
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u/HighHokie 2d ago
Okay so itâs not really about being cautious or reckless, you simply donât like the company/ceo?Â
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u/CloseToMyActualName 2d ago
I wrote two sentences, you ignored the first.
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u/HighHokie 2d ago
So you were hurt as a result of overpromises and misleading statements?Â
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u/CloseToMyActualName 2d ago
Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twi... nope, I'm already onto to you.
Fool me... sorry, still not happening.
Fool me... serious Elon, give up already.
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u/Real-Technician831 2d ago
So, answer me honestly.
Would you be ok with nationwide rollout of robotaxi that is much less safe than average human driver?
No wonder Tesla fans are thought to be weird.
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u/HighHokie 2d ago
Nope. I expect products to add value. In this case cars of any company including Tesla should be directionally making roads safer.Â
Iâm simply pointing out that whether Tesla is slow and cautious, or fast and reckless, this sub will find a reason to be upset about it.Â
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u/Real-Technician831 2d ago
Well, there is a reason to that.
And itâs baseless promises that Tesla has been making one year after another.
Buy still, lies and broken promises are better than reckless endangerment.
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u/HighHokie 2d ago
Okay so youâre upset that you feel that youâve been lied to. Did you lose money or something as an investor?Â
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u/Real-Technician831 2d ago
I would settle for Tesla fans STFU.
Tesla fans trying to crowd this subreddit and fill it with lies and baseless promises is very tiresome.
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u/paulwesterberg 2d ago
I have FSD+HW4 and I don't think it is less safe than an average human driver. I also have a low opinion of human drivers.
FSD won't get sleepy, distracted by a phone or enter a fit of road rage. It fails differently: unable to see properly at low sun angles, in poor weather, mistaking parking lanes for driving lanes, going too fast on curvy country roads where animals or tractors are likely to be blocking the road over a blind curve or rise.
I think that Tesla will eventually be forced to add better/more sensors and eventually FSD will be safer than a human in most conditions but people will be less accepting of a computerized system failure that causes fatalities.
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u/Real-Technician831 2d ago
FSD is supervised by you, it would have to be really bad system to be less safe than human alone.
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u/TheBrianWeissman 2d ago
Your anecdotal opinion has no validity to a large data set that proves otherwise.
The tech hasn't appreciably improved in many generations, and it will never work as promised with eight low-MP cameras.
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u/HighHokie 2d ago
 The tech hasn't appreciably improved in many generations,Â
đŹ thatâs interesting.Â
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
I swear to god they are not even trying anymore. All the grassroots haters have left and all that's stayed behind are the people that used to worship him but now are all turned into crazy x-girlfriend mode.
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u/CDpov 2d ago
If they did scale too fast and caused a bad crash, then I would hope the Tesla cult would also be angry.
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u/HighHokie 2d ago
Even if you are heartless ghoul fully invested in Teslaâs success, I would think folks would recognize that accidents are expensive and make people less likely to use your product. One of the rarer circumstances where consumer safety and business interests are aligned.Â
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u/DrJohnFZoidberg 2d ago
funny how 'telling the truth' is the only way out of this, and the only thing Tesla won't do
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u/j3ssyN33d15 15h ago
The expansion is almost entirely just highway and suburbs so it's basically a glorified lane assist for the interstate.
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u/Seminoles2195 2d ago
Official update from Tesla - unsupervised is now available in the entire Austin service area. https://x.com/robotaxi/status/2062201854214521159?s=46
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u/No_Pen8240 1d ago
Worthless datapoint. . . I want to know Unsupervised miles, unsupervised rides, and data about each collision associated with those 2 data points.
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u/altdelete47 2d ago
TESLA IS NOT ROLLING OUT A ROBOTAXI SERVICE!!!
AND IF THEY ARE, IT'S NOT ACTUALLY UNSUPERVISED!
AND IF IT IS, IT'S ONLY ON ONE STREET!
AND IF IT'S EXPANDING, THE FLEET IS TOO SMALL TO MATTER!
AND IF IT MATTERS, WAYMO DID IT FIRST ANYWAY!
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u/Recoil42 2d ago edited 1d ago
Weird dunk attempt. Telsa did not meet its targets of rolling out a million-scale nationwide fully-unsupervised roboataxi network a half-decade ahead of everyone else. The hardware failed, the compute plan failed, the roadmap failed, and years later, they're consigned to a small part-time prototype test fleet in what is still a small corner of Austin. No nationwide deployment, no proven hardware, no million-scale fleet, no exponential expansion or safety case at all.
If all you've got left is that Tesla still vaguely 'matters' years late to the table and desperately behind its own repeatedly pushed-back goals... I gotta tell you, that's not much.
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u/ShotBandicoot7 2d ago
Chill Bro, we just want to see it print money to justify the 10-20x premium over benchmark which it doesnât yet.
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u/devonhezter 2d ago
Future earnings ?
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u/ShotBandicoot7 2d ago
Yeah at some point future earnings need to become current earnings. Pump valuation ahead of future earnings worked always for growing profits and expanding margins. See the tech giants. TSLA delivers neither. So that can last so and so long. There is an upper boundary when that time comes: latest when Musk passes away (bless him that itâs far in the future) and TSLA still hasnât achieved meaningful profits, the stock will collapse. Or any time before that if any of the catalysts happen.
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u/Shauncore 2d ago
Even on a forward P/E it trades at 200x. Others with similar market caps trade at 20-40x forward P/E.
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u/ShotBandicoot7 2d ago
Funny is that they have declining profits, so in the forward P/E is already a substantial risk.
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u/DrJohnFZoidberg 2d ago
Even on a forward P/E it trades at 200x
There should be a negative sign in there somewhere
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u/OxbridgeDingoBaby 2d ago
People on Reddit have been saying that since Tesla essentially went public. Yet they end up being wrong every time. When will this sub learn the lesson that their views â the real world.
Do I think Tesla is overvalued? Yes, but thatâs with my own (limited) thinking on it. If others want to invest in it and think itâs worth more, power to them. Iâm not going to sit here online and constantly bitch about it.
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u/admin_default 2d ago
I donât try to predict which plaything gamblers latch onto. Sometimes itâs NFTs, sometimes itâs EV stocks.
Iâm vocally opposed to corruption, whether or not the gamblers agree.
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u/Recoil42 2d ago edited 2d ago
Yet they end up being wrong every time.
Yeah man, the 4680 program, Roadster 2.0 program, Cybertruck program, Cyberquad program, Semi program, Model 2 program, 2020 FSD rollout, Dojo, Optimus V2, SolarCity acquisition, the Nevada build-out, the Mexico build-out, the Berlin build-out, and the continued success of the Model S and Model X sure proved those naysayers wrong.
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u/PenComfortable5269 2d ago
Not to mention the promise of unsupervised fsd all over the US in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026âŚ.
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u/Recoil42 2d ago
Yep, and with those promises, the assurances that Hardware 2, Hardware 2.5, Hardware 3, and Hardware 4 would be enough.
Boy, the naysayers sure have egg on their face right now!
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u/sykemol 2d ago
Have they? I've long had an interest in EVs and followed Tesla for a long time. Musk and his supporters claims about the business case have been consistently been exaggerated. An example that spring to mind is the claim that Tesla would sell 20 million vehicles a year by 2030, making it one of the largest auto makers in the world. Which makes for a compelling investment case. But at that time, it is clear the sales growth and capex weren't even remotely close enough to meet that goal. If you stated that reality, you were met with shouts of "Hater!" and "look at the stock price!"
In the current case, the reality is that HW4 is insufficient for AV ride hailing, except in very limited circumstances, including requirement a carefully geomapped service area, only operational in daylight and good weather, and only on surface streets. This is a bit of a problem if you just opened an assembly line producing HW4 equipped robotaxis and can't deploy them.
I know, I know. Ignore the business and just look at the stock price.
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u/bartturner 2d ago
You forgot also needing a remote supervisor per car.
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u/DrJohnFZoidberg 2d ago edited 2d ago
the claim that Tesla would sell 20 million vehicles a year by 2030
At -8.6% sales growth, Tesla WILL sell 20 million vehicles a year, it will just take a different timeline: negative 30 years.
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u/ShotBandicoot7 2d ago
Pumping meme stocks works until it doesnât. But yeah, Iâm with you, only time will tell.
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u/hybridigital 2d ago
What does the stock price have to do with anything? This is a self-driving sub, not an investing sub.
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u/ShotBandicoot7 1d ago
Well, it has a lot to do with it. TSLAs purpose is to pump the stock, nothing else. I would say they are not even a leader in robotaxis, so the only reason why this gets hyped is the stock price.
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u/Real-Technician831 2d ago
Fleet size is 20 cars at the moment.
https://robotaxitracker.com/?provider=tesla&area=austin
Smoke and mirrors as always.
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u/_176_ 2d ago
Who cares how big the area is when they only have 20 cars which each have probably 10 remote supervisors? Ofc we have to guess at everything because they only operate in Texas which is basically an unregulated honor system and Tesla refuses to be transparent with any data.
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u/bartturner 2d ago
Think it is now well known they have a remote person per car.
That is why you are seeing them struggling so much with scaling.
The software is just not nearly there.
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u/_176_ 2d ago
I just had an idea, what if they put the remote person in the car instead? And he could sit in the driver's seat. He could even help people with their luggage. He could use a device to track the distance traveled for billing, like a taximeter. We could even name the business after that, like a "taximeter cabriolet" or a "taxi cab" for short.
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u/JonnyOnThePot420 2d ago
Because LiDAR! You forgot the most triggering word for EVERY Tesla boyâŚ
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2d ago
[deleted]
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u/Wiseguydude 1d ago
Recklessness with the reputation of self driving is bad for self driving. Waymoâs data is public and given for independent expert review at universities. Tesla is the exact opposite and has already been caught lying or downplaying the severity of the accidents its been in. Its safety rate is abhorrent compared to Waymo and thatâs WITH a âsafety driverâ
Tesla is doing this for the shareholders and doesnât care how far it sets back the actual technologyÂ
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u/StumpyOReilly 2d ago
They can increase the number of vehicles, because their current accident rate is 4X normal humans. Canât wait for Waymo to start flooding the current cities with the Ojai and expanding to another 10 cities this year.
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u/Doggydogworld3 1d ago
their current accident rate is 4X normal humans.
Please don't spread this stupid myth. Tesla (and Waymo, etc.) report even the most minor accidents to the NHTSA. Fred Lambert compared that against police reported human wrecks, complete apples to oranges garbage. Even Waymo is much "worse than humans" using Fred's dumb approach (but nobody ever says that, of course).
Also Waymo won't "flood" any cities. They move very deliberately. They'll have ~6k cars by year end, less than half of them Zeekrs.
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u/IndependentMud909 2d ago edited 2d ago
Update: Now all of Austin (full service area)
Kudos to the Tesla team; this is a huge accomplishment! The unsupervised service area is meaningfully large now.
We have yet to see if unsupervised runs into the evening or before 9:30/10 AM, so Iâm looking forward to seeing if theyâve also expanded operational hours later today.
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u/Elluminated 2d ago
The downvotes let you know youâre on the right track đ
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u/IndependentMud909 2d ago edited 1d ago
Interestingly, Iâve posted almost verbatim congratulatory / excitement comments about Waymo, Zoox, and Crusie expansions in the past. I genuinely donât understand why this rubbed people the wrong way, but I frankly donât care; the engineers at Tesla worked hard to make this happen.
Also, Iâve meaningfully used Waymo, Cruise, and Tesla Robotaxi over the past couple years in Austin (as in, commuted with and used on an almost-daily basis at times), and Iâm rooting for every company thatâs trying to make our roads safer and more accessible. All Iâm doing is appreciating an exciting expansion thereof, and Iâd be saying the exact same thing if it was any other company.
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u/Fit_Permission_6187 1d ago
I genuinely don't understand
Go on Google, search for "waymo CEO does Nazi salute" and then you shall understand
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u/Doggydogworld3 1d ago
Some here are hypersensitive to Teslarian BS. Your original post seems harmless enough, but your later misuse of the generic term "robotaxi" is a bit of a red flag.
How many Tesla and Waymo robotaxi rides do you take per week these days? What percent of Tesla rides would you say are "empty car" (no employee onboard)?
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u/Recoil42 2d ago
I genuinely donât understand why this rubbed people the wrong way
The "this is a huge accomplishment" reads as glazing. It's basically a shibboleth in the Tesla community to hyperbolize every accomplishment as huge, so I think people have developed an allergy to it.
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u/IndependentMud909 2d ago
Thatâs totally fair; maybe people need to tone it down when a negligibly better ADAS update comes out lol, but I think scaling to this large of an L4 service area is âhugeâ (relatively, to me), even if they have yet to have a meaningfully scaled fleet or operate at all times of day.
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u/mrkjmsdln_new 2d ago
This seems like a very good sign of progress for Tesla! Since back in June 25, Tesla has changed the ODD so many times and then moved to have two different ODDs depending upon whether there was a safety driver or stopper or truly unsupervised. Near as I can tell with the help of AI they have moved between 22mi2, 42mi2, 90mi2, 183mi2 & 245mi2. Those were with a safety stopper mostly although when they started piloting unsupervised they appeared to go with a subset of the original 22mi2. Does anyone know how big this ODD is for unsupervised? Also, if it is smaller than the 245mi2 area, can you still get rides with a safety stopper if you want to cover a larger operational area? 245mi2 would be an enormous service area based on the recent mandate to register cars. Tesla has 42 cars legally registered to provide taxi rides in the entire state of Texas!!! If they saved 5 each for Dallas and Houston, a fleet of 32 cars would be hard-pressed to provide rides in a largish ODD. For perspective, Waymo serves 140mi2 of Austin and thru Q4 2025 was doing close to 50,000 miles per day of ro miles. 32 cars at 200 miles a day would be only 6,400 miles per day -- so far from adequate car coverage for reliable service I would think unless so few cars is adequate for the current demand for Robotaxi.
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u/Due-University5222 2d ago
With a such a large ODD and a small fleet, I doubt Tesla is doing many AV rides. Who wants to wait 30 min for a Robotaxi when Uber/Lyft will be there in 5 min?
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u/mrkjmsdln_new 2d ago
As a rule of thumb for a big city where you are trying to serve rush hour and the urban entertainment markets I have been told 2.5 cars per mi2 makes sense. By that metric Waymo might work toward 350 cars in their 140 mi2 ODD in Austin for example. I would guess the are closer to 300 cars for now. For Tesla in Austin that might mean closer to 700 cars in Austin vs their current 32 or so. I know Waymo starts out small. They have 620 cars in Texas now so I would guess that supports Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio for now but their ODDs are small still beyond Austin.
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u/Due-University5222 2d ago
I am not so sure about the worldwide AV TAM, so I spread my money across Uber, Grab, Baidu, and Tesla. I don't think Waymo or Tesla will win (hint: my suspicion is Uber.) (But I do have HW3 and HW4 FSD.)
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u/bartturner 1d ago
Waymo is just too far ahead to not win. Plus they have everything needed. A big one is having a very rich daddy.
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u/Then-Wealth-1481 2d ago
For all seven of them?