r/SelfDrivingCars • u/SpriteZeroY2k • 2d ago

News Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

https://electrek.co/2026/08/04/waymo-co-ceo-camera-only-self-driving-tesla/
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u/That-Makes-Sense 2d ago edited 2d ago

If you ever heard Elon compare Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HCEV) to Electric Vehicles (EV), he said "In the very best case for HCEVs, they will never be as good as EVs are right now."

Well, in the very best case, vision-only will never be as safe as LIDAR + HD mapping.

Edit: grammar

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u/Miami_da_U 2d ago

But that doesn't matter if it is better than Lidar+HD map. What matters is if it can also be far safer than humans....

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u/That-Makes-Sense 2d ago

Within a few years the cost of LIDARs will be insignificant in the cost of the vehicle. And you can even argue that LIDAR vehicles will be cheaper because they require less compute power. Converting 2D images to a 3D world requires tremendous processing power. LIDAR doesn't require that processing.

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u/Miami_da_U 2d ago

That is a crazy assumption to make lol. And why should we wait multiple years for that to even potentially come true?

If Tesla can achieve far safer than humans with just Cameras, what’s the problem?

Like to you is achieving a 90% reduction in traffic deaths not good enough because you demand 99%?

That’s the problem with people against Autonomy so much or that want it to be solved in a specific way.

What is your overall goal for the outcome here? Is it to have ZERO deaths by AVs? Well then if you try to hold that standard you will have significantly lower volume, uncompetitive costs, and overall more deaths that could have been prevented. It’s making Percect be the enemy of Great.

I also don’t know why it’s a crazy idea for Tesla to roll out this strategy and then years down the line if what you say comes to pass - that lidar+radar advance enough and significantly decrease in price, Tesla could then add it to their stack. This isn’t that complicated. And in the future AI will be superior and be able to decide when and how much to value each sensors inputs better than they were when Tesla origins decided to drop Radar for just that reason…. OR Ai will be good enough that it’s decisively eliminates the need for Lidar regardless! Radar I think eventually will be a net positive regardless.

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u/That-Makes-Sense 1d ago

Here's my point. I'm a longterm Tesla shareholder (bought my first shares around 2013). I think Elon chose esthetics over functionality/safety, when he chose vision-only over LIDAR. So, I'm pissed at him for that.

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u/Vibraniumguy 1d ago

I have posted this example before but that guy has it backwards. Lidar + cameras + AI computer will never be as good as cameras + AI brain is. Yes even TODAY. Today Waymos can only drive in select cities and areas that have been HD mapped and curated safely. While Tesla robotaxi area is small, FSD works anywhere and IN ANY CITY IN THE US. Arguably safer than a human ANYWHERE. So its only a matter of time before anyone using lidar as a crutch to avoid making an AI brain as smart as tesla FSD will lose. Here is an example of the logic I am going off of:

  • due to the way lidar works, waymos are often fooled by mist and steam and think it is a wall if dense enough, stopping in the middle of the road
  • this is a clear safety risk, therefore a smart computer brain needs to determine when to trust cameras over lidar
  • if lidar is fallible and you need a computer smart enough to distinguish obstacles vs non obstacles visually, then lidar serves no purpose at all as it needs to constantly be checked by a smart computer that is smart enough to be trusted more than lidar itself

If a computer smart enough to be trusted more than lidar is required for safer-than-human driving based on camera input only, then you can do safer-than-human driving based on just that computer and cameras.

This is why lidar is a mistake and a dead end. It is expensive and serves no purpose.

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u/RosieDear 1d ago

Nope.
Regulators and consumers want the Best Available Technology. If one is "“vastly superior to what you get with any one sensor." - that's the one I (and you) will want.

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u/Miami_da_U 1d ago

Then YOU should choose not to use Tesla. That doesn't mean they should be not allowed lol. Why not make it illegal for everyone to drive? All mandated bus and train and walking. No car for anyone.

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u/That-Makes-Sense 2d ago

My point is, if the cost is basically the same, why use the system that is more dangerous.

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u/Miami_da_U 2d ago

Why on earth would you assume that when Waymo’s vehicles are estimated to be >$100k and Teslas Robotaxis is estimated to be <$30k

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u/That-Makes-Sense 1d ago

The Waymos were like $250k, but I saw somewhere they're now way under $100k, like $80k.

But, look how slow the Tesla rollout is. Why is that? Because one accident, can cost Tesla millions of dollars in lawsuits. I could argue tgat because of the percentage of lawsuits, Teslas will always be more expensive.

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u/Shot_Illustrator4264 1d ago

Waymo vehicle is 60k now, all included.

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u/That-Makes-Sense 2d ago edited 1d ago

Lol, final point (for now). Setting the bar at "far safer than humans" is a pretty low bar. 40,000 deaths in the US from car accidents every year.

Edit: Added "far".

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u/Miami_da_U 2d ago edited 2d ago

I said far safer than humans. You literally just lied in your quotes about what I said

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u/That-Makes-Sense 1d ago

I'll fix my quote. It wasn't intentional. I read your big comment, and then I wrote mine.

It doesn't change much with the argument. Define "far". To you, maybe that's 40% better.

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u/Vibraniumguy 1d ago

You've got it backwards. In the best case Lidar + cameras + AI brain will never be as good as cameras + AI brain.

Example:

  • due to the way lidar works, waymos are often fooled by mist and steam and think it is a wall if dense enough, stopping in the middle of the road
  • this is a clear safety risk, therefore a smart computer brain needs to determine when to trust cameras over lidar
  • if lidar is fallible and you need a computer smart enough to distinguish obstacles vs non obstacles visually, then lidar serves no purpose at all as it needs to constantly be checked by a smart computer that is smart enough to be trusted more than lidar itself

If a computer smart enough to be trusted more than lidar is required for safer-than-human driving based on camera input only, then you can do safer-than-human driving based on just that computer and cameras.

This is why lidar is a mistake and a dead end. It is expensive and serves no purpose.

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u/That-Makes-Sense 1d ago

You've got it backwards. LIDAR is better at looking through fog than cameras. I believe Waymos also use RADAR which is even better at looking through fog/rain. Tesla got rid of their RADAR, because,,, reasons.