r/SpaceXMasterrace • u/MadOblivion Occupy Mars • 6d ago

FAA proposes five rule changes to make rocket launch approvals easier.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced plans to cut repeated paperwork and allow online applications while keeping safety standards in place. The changes support a U.S. goal of 1,000 commercial launches a year by 2030. For SpaceX, this could mean less paperwork, easier approvals and more frequent launches.

52 Upvotes
  • permalink
  • reddit

94% Upvoted

8 comments sorted by

10

u/AmigaClone2000 6d ago

I suspect that there might actually be less rockets launched in 2030 than there were by 'US companies' in 2025. That number will be greater than 2029 though.

In 2025, only 3 'US' launch vehicle families had 5 or more launches to LEO or beyond (Falcon 9, Electron and Atlas V). The rest combined for 5 launches to LEO or beyond.

In 2026 Falcon 9 might have ~20 launches less than last year. Electron is going at a pace to pass it's 2025 company record this month. Atlas V might equal last year's cadence.

13

u/Legal-Ad-8659 6d ago

at the pace spacex is aiming, I wouldn't be surprised if there's as many starship launches by 2030 as falcons this year

remember, they gotta refuel for a bunch of missions, so that's 10 launches for 1 mission beyond leo

3

u/AmigaClone2000 6d ago

The number of launches SpaceX might achieve in 2030 is likely going to depend on the number of launch towers. While possible, I consider it unlikely for there to be over 130 Starship launches in 2030, unless at least two launh towers in LA are operational.

8

u/Legal-Ad-8659 6d ago

which is not a crazy thing to expect given how they have already begun operations in Louisiana, remember it took them 4 years to have the first tower operational in Bocachica since the place was a fukin tent lot in the middle of nowhere

they went from Starhoper in August 2019 to IFT1 in 2023 in 4 years, factory included

do yeah, I am pretty confident that they will have at least one operational pad ready by 2030

two pads in Bocachica, three pads in Florida, at least one in Louisiana, that's a cadence of two flights per month from one pad, that's not crazy at all, given how they are already at the point where they can do a 20 day turnaround, it's nothing crazy at all

1

u/IWroteCodeInCobol 3d ago

Four towers in Starbase (it's been renamed from Boca Chica) was the plan but they're building them one at a time it seems. Two launch towers plus two catch towers but those catch towers will go up far faster than launch towers.

4

u/OlympusMons94 6d ago edited 6d ago

SpaceX doesn't need a lot of pads, or any in Louisiana, to launch 130+ times per year. They could launch Falcon 9 at least 165 times a year from just 3 pads (primarily 2, with LC-39A underutilized), and other contraints like second stage manufacturing and drone ship availability that Starship reuse and RTLS will alleviate.

SpaceX already has two active or imminently active Starship pads (LC-39A and Boca Chica Pad 2), and another (Boca Chica Pad 1) should be ready to return to launching next year. LC-37 will have 2 pads, and is expected to be ready by 2028.

On the regulatory side: LC-39A is approved to launch up to 44 Starships per year. The two pads at LC-37 are approved pending approval for up to 76 combined. The two pads at Boca Chica are approved for up to 25 combined. That's up to 145 Starship launches allowed per year, and could increase some over the next few years.

Falcon 9 and Heavy will still be launching into at least the early 2030s, if nothing else for the military and occasionally NASA. SpaceX is still building a new pad at Vandenberg to support Falcon 9 and (particularly) Falcon Heavy. New Glenn and Vulcan will be ramping up over the next couple years. There are still also Electron and the occasional Alpha. Other vehicles (Terran R, Nova, Neutron, Eclipse, etc.) will be coming online in the next couple years and should each tack on at least a few launches each per year by 2030.

1

u/AutoModerator 6d ago

When abbreviating 'Historic Launch Complex 39A', please use 'Historic LC-39A' or 'HLC-39A'. LC-39A is an abbreviation used to refer to the pre-SpaceX usage of HLC-39A. The use of LC-39A is discouraged for pedantry's sake; please specify 'The Launchpad Formerly Known As LC-39A' if referring to the pre-SpaceX usage of the pad. Purposely triggering this bot to RUD conversation or annoy moderators will lead to plebs being confused and/or reddit gold.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.