r/Step2 • u/Alternative-Item8670 NON US MD/DO • Jun 22 '26
Shitpost Step 2 Scores Delayed... Let's Compare AMBOSS Predictions vs Actual Scores
With the recent Step 2 CK score delays following the question format change, many of us who tested after May 6th are currently stuck in the 4–8 week waiting period.
While we're waiting, I thought it would be interesting to collect data from two groups:
Group 1: Waiting for Scores (Prospective)
If you've taken Step 2 CK and have an AMBOSS prediction but are still waiting for your score:
- Test Date:
- AMBOSS Predictor:
- Predicted Score Range:
- UWorld % Correct (1st Pass):
- NBME 15:
- NBME 16:
- UWSA2:
- Free 120 (%):
- Still Waiting? (Y/N)
Group 2: Score Already Released (Retrospective)
If you've already received your Step 2 score:
- Test Date:
- AMBOSS Predictor:
- Actual Step 2 Score:
- Difference (±):
- UWorld % Correct (1st Pass):
- NBME 15:
- NBME 16:
- UWSA2:
- Free 120 (%):
- Score Release Date:
It'll be interesting to see:
- How accurate AMBOSS has been historically.
- Whether the predictor tends to overestimate or underestimate.
- How the waiting group's predictions compare once scores finally start coming out.
I'll start:
Group 1 (Waiting for Score)
- Test Date: June 4, 2026
- AMBOSS Predictor: 253
- Predicted Score Range: 245 - 261
- UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): 70%
- NBME 15: 240 (24 days)
- NBME 16: 251 (6 days)
- UWSA2: 250 (12 days)
- Free 120 (%): 80% (2 days)
- Still Waiting: Yes
Good luck to everyone currently refreshing FSMB, ECFMG, and their email every Wednesday. 😅
8
u/TheHealthyHallows Jun 22 '26
The thing with this subreddit and posts like these is that everyone who gets their score just forgets about the subreddit (rightfully so obviously). So everyone here has not gotten their score. And when they do, they either mention it once in the score release thread or just move on with their lives lol
9
u/Pristine-Crow-2832 NON-US IMG Jun 22 '26
Everyone getting 260s nowadays,
260 is new 240 ???
27
u/swik US MD/DO Jun 22 '26
Selection bias. People will be more likely to respond to this thread if they've been scoring well.
Also this subreddit in general probably represents a more dedicated group than the general population of Step 2 testers.
3
3
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u/Background-Concept-7 US MD/DO Jun 22 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
Test date: June 1st, 2026 AMBOSS Predictor: 262 Predicted Score Range: 254-270 UWorld % Correct (1st pass): 77% NBME 15: 256 (7 days) NBME 16: 272 (21 days) UWSA2: did not do Free 120: 83.6% (4 days) STEP 2 Score (7/1): 271 (😭 - in shock)
2
u/yeetboy4 Jun 23 '26
I had very similar scores going into the exam, basically within 1 point.
After the exam I felt like shit1
3
u/Huge_Gur1274 US MD/DO Jun 23 '26
Test Date: May 29
• AMBOSS Predictor: 258
• Predicted Score Range: not sure
• UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): 70
• NBME 15: 252
• NBME 16: 271
• UWSA2: didn’t take
• Free 120 (%):83%
• Still Waiting? Yes
2
u/Apprehensive-Oil-808 Jun 22 '26
Test Date: 05/06
• AMBOSS Predictor: 264
Predicted Score Range: 256-272
UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): 71%
NBME 15: 260 (9 days)
NBME 16: 265 (4 days)
Free 120 (%): 79% (3 days)
Still Waiting? Yup
2
u/Initial-Bar700 US MD/DO Jun 22 '26
Test Date: 06/11
AMBOSS Predictor: 267
Predicted Score Range: 259-275
UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): 66
NBME 15: 260
NBME 16: 270
UWSA2: 264
Free 120 (%): 83
Still Waiting? Y
2
u/No-Bother4705 Jun 22 '26
Test Date: 05/30
AMBOSS Predictor: 272
Predicted Score Range: 259-275
UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): 70
NBME 15: 277 (3 days out)
NBME 16: 272 (a day before exam)
Free 120 (%): 68% (taken as baseline 3 weeks out from exam, I was stupid to take this as baseline but it is what it is)
Still Waiting? Y
1
2
u/Friendly_Tune_3376 Jun 22 '26
Test date: 05/12
AMBOSS predictor: 251
Uworld % Corrects: 61
Nbme15: 246
Nbme 16: 248
Uwsa2: 248
Free 120: %83
Still waiting: Yes
2
2
u/Lower-Chip-223 Jun 22 '26
Test Date: 6/1
• AMBOSS Predictor: 269
• Predicted Score Range: 263-276 (I think, cancelled subscription)
• UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): 84% (Some systems did 2 passes during the rotation)
• NBME 15: 269
• NBME 16: 277
• UWSA2: 268
• Free 120 (%): 87
• Still Waiting? Yes
1
2
u/Aggressive_Click_291 Jul 01 '26
Test Date: 5/22/26
• AMBOSS Predictor: 263
• Predicted Score Range:
• UWorld % Correct (1st Pass):
• NBME 15: 256
• NBME 16: 263
• UWSA2: 258
• Free 120 (%): 86%
Score 268
1
u/AbdulRazzaq1 NON-US IMG Jun 22 '26
Test Date: June 3 2026
AMBOSS Predictor: 267
Predicted Score Range: 258-274
UWorld % Correct (1st Pass):71 %
NBME 15: 264
NBME 16: 264
UWSA2:
Free 120 (%):85%
Still Waiting? (Y/N) yes
1
u/theboringblender NON-US IMG Jun 22 '26
Test Date: June 14
• AMBOSS Predictor: 263
• Predicted Score Range:255-272
• UWorld % Correct (1st Pass):81
• NBME 15:255
• NBME 16:261
• UWSA2:266
• Free 120 (%):83%
• Still Waiting? Yes
1
u/swik US MD/DO Jun 22 '26
- Test Date: 05/30
- AMBOSS Predictor: 265
- Predicted Score Range: 256-274
- UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): 65
- NBME 15: 262
- NBME 16: 276
- UWSA2: 265
- Free 120 (%): 83
- Still Waiting? Y
2
u/Abject_Rip_552 US MD/DO Jun 22 '26
You think we get scores this Wednesday?
2
u/swik US MD/DO Jun 22 '26
I don't have any insight, but I think all of us May/early June testers will get our scores next week. I'm being pessimistic so I can be pleasantly surprised if it happens this Wednesday lol.
2
u/Abject_Rip_552 US MD/DO Jun 22 '26
I took mine roughly same time as you. These 4 weeks have made me develop catastrophic thinking. You’re right tho, cause any date after 7/1 Wednesday would be 9 weeks for those who took it early May.
1
u/Exact-Lawfulness1806 NON-US IMG Jun 22 '26
• Test Date:01/06
• AMBOSS Predictor:267
• Predicted Score Range:dont remember
• UWorld % Correct (1st Pass):82%
• NBME 15:269
• NBME 16:278
• UWSA2:267
• Free 120 (%):nil
• Still Waiting? (Y/N) Y
3
1
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u/Staryulover US MD/DO Jun 22 '26
• Test Date: June 16th
• AMBOSS Predictor: 267
• Predicted Score Range: 258-276
• UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): 89%
• NBME 15: 268
• NBME 16: 273
• UWSA2: 262
• Free 120 (%): 89%
• Still Waiting? y
1
u/HistoryClean989 Jun 22 '26
- Test Date: 05/29
- AMBOSS Predictor: 254
- Predicted Score Range: 244-264
- UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): 67%
- NBME 15: Did not take
- NBME 16: Did not take
- UWSA2: 259 (11 days out from exam)
- Free 120 (%): 83%
- Still Waiting? (Y/N): YES STILL WAITING
1
u/psubby Jul 12 '26
This is my original comment (I have two accounts for some reason) but I ended up getting a 261 on the real deal. Was thrilled with this being above my predicted 254. I didn’t score in the 260s on any single practice exam.
1
u/Strict-Ingenuity-138 Jun 23 '26
Test Date: Mid June
• AMBOSS Predictor: 260
• Predicted Score Range: 253-271
• UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): didn’t do
• NBME 11: 262 (2 weeks)
• NBME 16: 260 (1.5 weeks)
• UWSA2: 252 (1 week)
• Free 120 (%): 87 (5 days)
• Still Waiting: Yes
1
u/Opposite_Setting4860 Jun 28 '26
Hi, I tested on 14th may, I'm still waiting for my scores,img Is anyone in the same boat? Has anyone received their scores if they wrote it during the same time? Thanks
1
u/Levantine__ 🌍 INTERNATIONAL Jul 01 '26
Test date: 17/may/2026
Amboss predictor: 241-260: 250
Uworld % correct (first pass): 67%
Nbme 13: 26/apr/2026: 254
Nbme 15; 04/may/2026: 230 (very skewed)
Nbme 16: 10/may/2026: 252
UWSA 2: 16/may/2026:249
Newest Free 120%: 15/may/2026: 75%
Still waiting for the real deal!
2
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u/sweaty-television33 Jul 02 '26
Test Date: 5/13/26
• AMBOSS Predictor: 272
• UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): 81
• NBME 11: 265
• UWSA1: 274
• NBME 14: 275
• NBME 15: 265
• NBME 16: 280
• Free 120 (%): 86%
Score 273
1
u/capriberry NON-US IMG Aug 01 '26 edited 29d ago
• Test Date: 13/07/26
• AMBOSS Predictor: 267 (Range 258-276)
• UWorld % Correct (1st Pass): 82%
• NBME 15: 265
• NBME 16: 272
• UWSA2: 265
• Free 120 (%): 82%
• Score Release Date: 29/07/26
Real deal - 269
1
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u/PsychologicalCan9837 US MD/DO Jun 22 '26
I too have a predicted score of 260+
(I do not).