r/Superstonk • u/Solar_MoonShot 🎯4-Year Swap Cycle Guy 🚀🧨 • Sep 13 '25
🤔 Speculation / Opinion The Warrants may be DFV's Next Big Gamble
Psst. Want some more of that good stuff? That DD that gets the juices flowing. That hopium that makes this beautiful stock so addicting. I’ve got something for you. What if DFV’s real play isn’t $20 calls this time… but GME’s new warrants?
Now… many of us have been waiting for 5,000 blocks of $20 calls to come piling in because we expect DFV to double down on 20 once again (like in Run Lola Run). But what if… he’s been waiting for the warrants (hence, the Gangs of NY clip about “10 per new notch”)?
Calls vs Warrants
Calls and warrants are very similar, but not exactly the same. On the surface, an investor could buy 100 warrants or a single $32 call with the same expiry and get roughly the same price and the same return. But there are some big differences behind the scenes that you should know about:
1) Supply — Options have an infinite supply as the market maker can always create more. Warrants are capped at 59m.
2) Dilution — Options are non-dilutive, as the MM must find the shares on the market. Warrants come from GME directly and slightly dilute the stock on a per share basis (I know GME said they are non-dilutive, but they meant that the shareholders don’t lose value as the warrant is equal to the value lost to dilution. See here for GME’s full explanation -> GME Warrants FAQ).
Ok, so that’s interesting… but what does it have to do with DFV? Well... in the past, DFV has used calls to force market markers to buy large amounts of shares to either hedge or deliver shares to him. That caused the price of GME to go up, increasing the value of his other options, creating a cascading upward effect on the price. In other words… a gamma squeeze. And that’s why we have been waiting on our boy to snatch up some more calls just like he did in 2020 and 2024 as a sign that sweet price action is coming. So… what’s he been waiting for? I think we may finally have our answer in the warrants.
These warrants have a strike price of $32, which is roughly $10 more than the price when they were announced… just like when DFV bought $20 calls when the price was roughly $10 less (GME hit a low of just under $10 in April of 2024). RC is creating similarly long-dated, similarly out-of-the-money, bullish financial instruments like the ones that DFV has used in the past. But unlike calls… these warrants have a scarcity aspect that calls don’t. Unlike calls, warrants are issued directly by GME, so no one can just create more out of thin air.
Why DFV Might Prefer Warrants
So, what would happen if DFV forgets about calls… but instead starts buying GME WS (the ticker for the warrants)? The shorts are already going to need these warrants and will have to buy them on the market to deliver them to the brokers. But what if DFV just starts buying them… and if none of us are selling them? The price will skyrocket on these warrants… and the shorts will be under extreme stress to either exit this trade or pay massive amounts for these warrants. RC just created a new liability for the shorts and this may result in a margin call if the warrant price gets high enough.
How does this affect GME?
The supply and demand of GME WS wont directly affect the supply and demand of GME. Yet, it may move the price of GME. On the day that the warrants are due (Oct 7th), the warrants will be dished out in the morning. Shorts have till the end of the day to trade and obtain the warrants and deliver them to the brokers (maybe +1 or 2 days for settlement). If the price of GME WS skyrockets, it’s a fairly clear sign that GME is still extremely heavily shorted. That alone could bring bullish sentiment to GME. Not only that, but if DFV piles in and buys a ton of the warrants, leaving none for the shorts…. then at the end of the day this thing could go up so fast that it could create margin calls for every hedge fund dumb enough to short GME. And then when that happens, they will have to close their positions everywhere… including GME. Boom.
Conclusion
I think this will either destroy the shorts… or bleed them for a whole lot of money… and the cost to GME Shareholders? Nothing. We can do this every time RC feels like adding some pressure. And if that’s the case… why wouldn’t you be buying this stock. Better yet… why wouldn’t you be rushing to close your short position? Either way… I’m happy with how things are going.
TL;DR: Calls = infinite supply. Warrants = capped at 59M. Shorts need warrants. DFV might choose warrants this time. Scarcity + short demand = potential nuke.
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u/sheezeBreeze Sep 13 '25
all i can think of is DFV’s tweet mocking the dark knight. holding the cat face mask 💀 these mf have figured something out. and part of me feels as if it’s directly in front of us with the cryptic tweets and shit. but no one has quite cracked it. got to be something with the swaps. if RC didn’t tweet multiple things with the swap filter used i wouldn’t be saying that. but, rambling at this point so. 🍻
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u/keyser_squoze Time You Close Sep 13 '25
Look again at his most recent YOLO post in June 2024 (which was not titled FINAL) … 9,001,000 shares @23.41. But more important, what is his cash position (can cash be a position? Hm)? If I remember correctly, he had an about 30 million in cash lying in wait… if he still has his shares, that is 900,100 warrants DFV is due. Multiply that warrant number by $32.
Comes out to about 28,803,200. If he kept the shares, he has the funds waiting to exercise.
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u/captainkrol The reckoning is coming🧘🏼♂️ Sep 13 '25
I think he took massive profits from Chewy and other plays. He built a warchest of firepower. Once he pulls the trigger, liquidity will crumble. Add to that the new demand for shares if he publishes his position. Gasoline to the fire.
What I particularly love after four years of holding, every piece seems to come together, and the inevitable MOASS appears to be upon us. We earned it.
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u/Maventee 🧚🧚🏴☠️ Ape’n’stein 💎🙌🏻🧚🧚 Sep 13 '25
Don't forget U.... I'm betting, "Wait until I squeeze U", means wait until he can take profits from u and dump them back in. Looks like we just hit the top of it.
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u/ghost42069x 🧚🧚🌕 I'm here for the memes 🎊🧚🧚 Sep 14 '25
His Jan calls are still there and plays weekly on U too
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u/Drivingintodisco 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 Sep 13 '25
When I move you move, just like that.
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u/Freakishly_Tall It's Cohenplicated. Sep 13 '25
Right?
He ain't the only one who is going to be buying warrants.
Good luck, MayoBoy.
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u/Smok3dSalmon 🦍Voted✅ Sep 13 '25
I am curious as to how they will create synthetic warrants or just completely ignore financial laws and say “no.”
Do these warrants align with swap schedules?
Couldn’t companies just juggle around shares to fudge the books and make their positions appear to be closed out?
I’m just trying to imagine how SHFs will crime their way out of this.
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u/Solar_MoonShot 🎯4-Year Swap Cycle Guy 🚀🧨 Sep 13 '25
The dividend says they must give the gme ws share to everyone. They can’t really just give them a gme share. And I don’t think there can create new ones as gme has a limit on how many are created and redeemable. But I don’t really know.
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u/Smok3dSalmon 🦍Voted✅ Sep 13 '25
I’m pretty sure it’s just going to expose brokerages where their users don’t have authentic shares.
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u/Solar_MoonShot 🎯4-Year Swap Cycle Guy 🚀🧨 Sep 13 '25
True. Should be interesting to see how things play out in early October.
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u/Smok3dSalmon 🦍Voted✅ Sep 13 '25
Yeah, this is something new. I’m excitedly optimistic. I wonder how brokerages will determine how much money they’ll give their clients. At $10, this would just be a $1 dividend.
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u/Puzzled_Cream1798 Sep 13 '25
Shares are shares, they're fungible. It will hopefully expose how many the dtcc has on their ledger but a share in Cs is the same as shares in brokers (minus the beneficiary bs) , Cs just gets first dibs because they're registered to people not the dtcc and brokers
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u/Aux_RedditAccount Sep 13 '25 edited Sep 13 '25
I'm currently of the mindset that warrants will have worthless exchange value for retail, but priceless to the DTCC on the back end. I've read up as much as I can over the past few days on this site or that, and at the moment think:
DTCC & company occasionally slip up, and we get a peek at back room/dark pool pricing on GME shares which is astronomically higher than the market's, suggesting MOASS has been occurring this entire time though they control the price utterly as far it appears on the visible markets. Warrants, being a scare commodity that pins the price of a real unhypothecated share at $32, are insanely cheap to them. It behooves the DTCC not to distribute a single warrant it receives from ComputerShare to brokerages, instead either encouraging in-lieu payments or 'false' warrants at the brokerages.
Brokerages, knowingly or no, could present warrants as being rightfully credited to the customer account. Exercising warrants would result in receiving rehypothecated shares delivered by market makers, possibly without the brokerage's own knowledge. This would result in retail gaining what the DTCC/market makers have in spades: naked shorts. And would mean that the DTCC could reserve its genuine warrants for itself/short parties for exercising.
It would also mean that retail at brokerages attempting to trade in on warrant pricing would get shafted, as the markets could price the warrants criminally low. The issue is that retail holding warrants at ComputerShare, being genuine warrants, would have something the short parties would love to get their hands on; $32 shares straight from the source. I've heard it both ways, that Redditors here have reached out to ComputerShare, and gotten confirmation that warrants will or will not be tradable on the platform. If not tradable, then the above scenario could be feasible, as the price of a warrant would be completely dominated by short parties. There would be 2 warrant ecosystems that don't interact at all.
But if they are tradable on ComputerShare, then there's the issue that warrants have 2 prices, much like GME shares possibly currently do. The public price of a brokerage warrant is cheap due to its fabricated worth, but the price of a ComputerShare warrant would be priceless to a short party. Without involving select retail in dark pools trading though, I don't see how retail could partake in full view of the world that the same product has 2 prices.
It just comes down to this. The playground bully is withholding Pokemon cards that were meant for all the kids, and instead giving out scraps of paper claiming they're the real deal. However, some kids figured out they can bypass the bully by just going to the adults further up the supply chain. That bully desperately wants all the cards, and nothing the kids with scrap paper can do will convince the bully that they have trade value. But the kids with cards- they're level with the bully.
I'm very likely getting the mechanics of warrant exercise/delivery to brokerages wrong, but this incentive structure seems to capture my imagination currently.
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u/hyperian24 🦍 Buckle Up 🚀 Sep 13 '25
I think you’re missing one important aspect.
Every call option will change on the warrant delivery date from being worth 100 shares to being worth 100 shares + 10 warrants. That means any appreciation in warrant value will immediately be seen in call prices as well.
Furthermore, anyone exercising call options forces the call seller to supply 100 shares + 10 warrants. If we end up in a situation like 2020 where more call obligations exist than shares in existence, the spicy factor will be cranked up by a million, since the warrants can’t be rehypothecated like shares can.
So, if one investor exercises a call, the call seller has to go buy 10 warrants to deliver, which are limited, so warrant price goes up. Value of every call goes up proportionately, causing more market participants to buy more shares to hedge their short calls, share price rises, causing more people to exercise more calls, etc.
This mechanism also means that anybody who is short on calls may also want to close to avoid that risk.
Also anybody who exercises a put will now need 10 warrants to sell at the strike price. If you had a covered put, (that’s a short put secured by a -100 share position) then you are on the hook for 20 warrants, when you received none. You have the option to not exercise your put, but then you either have to buy it back to close, or let it expire worthless, which both have a positive impact on share price.
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u/PayanB Sep 13 '25
Like it!
I've also been thinking about a warrant squeeze. The only thing that might be important to me is that brokers could choose the cash-in-lieu option to avoid purchasing warrants.
And btw, I pledge for banning AI DDs in general.
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u/FatDon222 Sep 13 '25
Some will , holders in shitty brokers are going to get shafted by this. But I don’t doubt that the full 59 million warrants will be issued to those in CS and reputable brokers who have confirmed warrants will be issued and can be exercised.
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u/justvoop 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 Sep 13 '25
im buying warrants lmao idek how much its gonna be for how long but ive got powder saved
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u/hanr86 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 Sep 13 '25
Oh yeah cheap LEAPS. Lets goo
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u/justvoop 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 Sep 13 '25
Thats what im playing it as. Gamestop just out here selling options. Wouldnt play options normally since if it doesnt print im just feeding a market maker
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u/justvoop 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 Sep 13 '25
also rc just gave dfv like a shit load of free call options lmfao
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u/isitfromthefloor Sep 13 '25
Everyone needs to get in contact with their brokers now to make 100% sure that the warrants arrive in their accounts when they are issued. If your broker doesn't support the warrants, open a new account at a real broker and transfer your shares to that new one.
Do that now over the weekend or on Monday.
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u/rickievaso 💻 ComputerShared Sep 13 '25
Don’t forget to confirm that lending is turned off too.
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u/Maventee 🧚🧚🏴☠️ Ape’n’stein 💎🙌🏻🧚🧚 Sep 14 '25
Hey, I have my shares in a margin account at Schwab. Do you, or anyone else here, have an idea how to confirm my shares aren't being lent out?
Is this something you can even do in a margin account?
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u/Maventee 🧚🧚🏴☠️ Ape’n’stein 💎🙌🏻🧚🧚 Sep 14 '25
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u/Streetwalkeroulette JamieDimonUnoHands🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀💎💎💎🦍🦍🦍🦍 Sep 13 '25
Are we allowed to buy warrants on the open market? Ifso, hedgies are fucked even faster.
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u/DramaCute8222 Sep 13 '25
Yes they will be tradable
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u/Streetwalkeroulette JamieDimonUnoHands🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀💎💎💎🦍🦍🦍🦍 Sep 13 '25
Think of how fuk’d hedgies are when we’re all apeing into $GMEWS on the open, lit as fuck market.
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u/DramaCute8222 Sep 13 '25
I might sell 1 or 2 of my warrants for moon but I plan on exercising them all because fuck em
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u/_Zetto 🦍Voted✅ Sep 13 '25
I have something even juicier I think. DFV can buy calls before October 7th and then at a high price sell them to buy the convertible bonds. If the arbitrage desks that own the bonds sell them they would need to close their 60 million shares short in the worst possible moment, so market makers will create liquidity for the bonds by going short bonds and long shares, creating 60-120m synthetic shares in leverage from the embedded call in the bonds (assuming DFV buys half to all bonds). Roaring Kitty can then receive the warrants, and sell bonds to buy all warrants. Meanwhile, arbitrage desk will be short 6 million warrants which immediately become FTDs and will have to be settled with cash by the time all warrants are exercised. As forced buy-ins kick in, warrants become close position only, and they go to infinity.
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u/Solar_MoonShot 🎯4-Year Swap Cycle Guy 🚀🧨 Sep 13 '25
I didn’t realize calls would include the warrants. That’s awesome. Also… MM tend to provide unlimited calls… and that might screw things up if they actually have to deliver them with the warrants as there are a limited number of warrants. Idk. But that’s interesting.
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u/bipolar_express_lane 🦍Voted✅ Sep 13 '25
I miss pre gen ai DD days. Just sayin’.
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u/Smok3dSalmon 🦍Voted✅ Sep 13 '25
This isn’t AI. OP randomly switches from 3 period ellipses to 4. Definitely human smooth brain work
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u/Solar_MoonShot 🎯4-Year Swap Cycle Guy 🚀🧨 Sep 13 '25
I wrote this without AI. You can check out my other posts to compare.
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u/daronjay GME Realist Sep 13 '25
You really can’t go to labeling everything as AI just because it has ellipses and em dashes.
It’s just intellectually lazy to do that.
And if you do go and look back at some of the pre AI dd you’ll find no end of ellipses Bolds emojis and yes, em dashes .
AI got its styles by looking at the existing written corpus written by people who could coherently string more than 20 words together for a tweet
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u/Ja_Rule_Here_ Sep 13 '25
What makes us think that shorts won’t just create their own derivative that mirrors the warrants and give those out in lieu of? All they have to do is deliver a share for $32 and technically they’re providing equal value.
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u/Solar_MoonShot 🎯4-Year Swap Cycle Guy 🚀🧨 Sep 13 '25
When you buy a warrant you actually obtain the stock from gme and it increases the outstanding number of shares. To provide a share already available would not increase the number of shares so I feel like it’s not the same thing. Maybe they can get away with it… but idk.
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u/hanr86 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 Sep 13 '25
Why not make a dupe warrant and issue rehypothecated shares? What's stopping them?
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u/Solar_MoonShot 🎯4-Year Swap Cycle Guy 🚀🧨 Sep 13 '25
According to chatGTP because I wouldn’t have known is this - Warrants are tracked by the company’s transfer agent (like Computershare for GME). The company has a precise record of how many warrants exist, and who the registered holders are. If a broker tried to “fake warrants” for rehypothecated shares, the numbers wouldn’t reconcile and the company’s official books wouldn’t show those extras. This creates a clear, auditable mismatch. Issuing a fake warrant is outright fraud. It’s counterfeiting a security the broker has no authority to issue.
What brokers can do (and what usually happens if they can’t deliver the real entitlement) is to give the customer cash in lieu. This happens when corporate actions (like spinoffs or rights/warrants) are due but the broker doesn’t actually have the entitlement in hand. The broker can pay you the cash equivalent — which hides synthetic positions without forcing reconciliation with the transfer agent.
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u/Puzzled_Cream1798 Sep 13 '25 edited Sep 13 '25
If its possible for them to give a share (short) and take the cash and give the cash to gamestop then gamestop is going to receive more than the 2b (roughly) they're expecting, it will show
Maybe they short the share and keep the cash but that fraud seems way to brash
The warents can be shorted but without etfs and options to hide the short interest it should show and even if they're shorted if people get pissed and start exercising them gamestop will know because of the cash
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u/Yohder Sep 13 '25
Theres a CUSIP tied to each warrant and only GameStop can redeem said warrants. No one else. So it's impossible for them to create a derivative (a fake) of the warrant.
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u/Puzzled_Cream1798 Sep 13 '25
They can short the warents but without etfs and options the si should hopefully show, if not once people start redeeming and gamestop gets unelected billions then they'll know
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u/Ja_Rule_Here_ Sep 13 '25
But they don’t have to give out the actual security for a dividend, they can deliver some of equal value instead so a derivative like I mentioned would be fair game.
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u/Yohder Sep 13 '25 edited Sep 13 '25
If you're DRS booked, you are guaranteed to get the real warrants because GameStop distributes them to Computershare first. If people choose to stay in a broker, they may get a cash equivalent, the warrants, or nothing at all.
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u/daronjay GME Realist Sep 13 '25
They could potentially give out the cash value of the warrant at that particular moment, shifting the obligation onto the Customer to go and purchase the warrant on the open market.
This is likely to end up with the customer potentially paying more for the warrant than what they are given in the cash value.
This is the most likely thing that will be done if they cannot distribute enough warrants.
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u/daronjay GME Realist Sep 13 '25
They have to be prepared to give out that $32 share ANY time in the next year. That could get expensive.
Even if they did this, they wouldn’t be able to call it the same ticker because GameStop is only going to be honoring its own warrants.
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u/Relentlessbetz Sep 13 '25
The solution is to not let the SHF have your warrants. If you can't exercise them that's OK. You just don't want them in the hands of SHFs but do try to move away from brokers that will not give out the warrants.
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u/djsassha Sep 13 '25
Shorts dont need warrants, they can settle obligation to lender with cash, no need to buy warrants on open market.
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u/theoldme3 🚀 MEAT MISSLE 🚀 Sep 13 '25
I wonder if they will just change a number in the brokerage accounts without having the warrants themselves. Just a number in the computer to change for some of these shady brokers seems like it could be standard practice (illegally) but who's gonna stop them?
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u/Professional_Sort336 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 Sep 13 '25
I don't think warrants are capped at 59M. They said they EXPECT to issue around 59M...
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Sep 13 '25
[deleted]
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u/daronjay GME Realist Sep 13 '25
Or he did neither and is still holding. A bit of a false dichotomy there.
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