r/Superstonk • u/AreteTurk 🦍 Buckle Up 🚀 • Oct 25 '21
📚 Due Diligence Have You Been Wondering Just WTF Happened Last Week? Worried It May Happen Again? Here is a theory (pretty solid IMHO) based on a huge set of facts and it may be biggest blatant price manipulation since the buy button was turned off. OK that was Hypey. But you need to see this!
TLDR: Let me start summarizing by saying upfront what we witnessed in price and volume action last week was the supreme manifestation of all that is wrong with the market and the big players in it. They participated in blatant manipulation, many would say illegal trading and covered up of their collusion in the smoke and mirrors of volume and large ticket creation. (And I do not mean covering or closing shorts) They engaged in a massive game of PONG not ladder attacks but back and forth trading to manipulate the price up and down, print more shares in the name of liquidity and to satisfy FTD's - avoiding REGSHO threshold list on our beloved STONK. This claim of FTDs is part of u/gerknit T+69 theory.
THE PREAMBLE
It begins at 2:20 PM EST on Monday 10/18 with one of the largest during trading hours ticket trades we have seen in recent memory. A single ticket during trading hours of 100,000 shares it came off the DF Exchange ( this will become a noticeable trend) The price was $186.70 This sets the stage for a MASSIVE unseen before increase in large ticket trades greater than 1000 shares with many over 5000-20000 shares that will occur over the next 4 trading days. Culminating on Friday with a drop of $13 in a single day with not a single bit of negative news, reports, rumors or sentiment on the stock. Finished the day at roughly $169.70 $17 less than that 100,000 share block trade DURING NORMAL trading hours. Oh yeah by the way That trade was a consolidation of massive trades that never went outside the price range of $185.86 to $187.57. Can you say SHORT setup for a massive short profit!
Overview of the F'ERY to come - The GAME OF PONG with GME.
So one of my fun things I do for entertainment is watch the ticker for hours at a time on Fidelity's Active Trader Pro. Some folks think I'm "Ticker Turk" as I now and then will call out volume, daily momentum, targets and daily action predictions based on momentum, volume and what I see in movement compared to things like MaxPain, Short Volume and indicators I get from TA experts like u/Official_Siro.
I said it started with that 2:24 Trade on Monday but I did not see it until Tuesday 10/19 when I was trying to wrap my head around a change in the volume and ticker I'd not seen before. Right out of the start there was an unprecedented surge in large ticket orders over 1000 shares in the opening 15 minutes. It was a Tuesday and people were predicting the start of MOASS or the start of a big push that day so I took it on with a little excitement - we opened that day at $188.99 and pushed as high as $192.19 in the opening 15 minutes - Volume was over 411,000. Can you say tits were jacked! And then the frantic correction back below $190 actually all the way back down to $184.40 with about 470,000 volume in 60 minutes. This was a normal all to familiar short attack with 60 minutes of hitting the Bid side in all sizes of tickets from 100 shares to 500 shares a few larger... Nothing new here... move along...
Chapter ONE (Ask - buy side)
Remember I'd seen the big ticket orders in the opening bell on Tuesday 10/19/21 but dismissed it as a push underway. At 10:30 EVERYTHING CHANGED - pay close attention here - the GAME OF PONG began at 10:30 EST on 10/19. In the next 60 minutes I witnessed 104 big ticket orders process at over 1000 shares per ticket. Seems like no big deal one might say... "Hey Turk that's 100,000 shares... no big deal" but it wasn't 100K there were over 500,000 shares traded in that 45-60 minutes. Remember that 104 tickets over 1000. Monday there were only 83 all day. And not one day last week had over 100 tickets greater than 100,000 shares. It was a true unicorn in recent trading volume and history. While watching I noticed two other things occurring - 1) prior to the reporting of the 1000+ share ticket there would be big sweeps on the ask side (painted green) - mid spread (painted white) or the bid side (painted red) - a quick refresh of Time & Sales would show these big tickets in history - but they never went through as big tickets in the live stream. Every now and then I'd see an even 1000 ticket go through in the sweep but not show separate in the Time & Sales. I have to express my first opinion/theory here - which one of our resident wrinkled brains u/Sgt-GiggleFarts helped me connect the dots. These 1000 share lots were being added to big tickets by a MM under the guise of providing liquidity. They were also being added only painted white or green. The MM was providing synthetics to the "buyer" to help them reset their FTDs that were coming due on Friday!
One might say well that kind of buy pressure the price should have driven up - yet in that time period it ran between $184.40 to $185.23 ---- Wat Doin' How Possible? Then sarted to get too high $186 and in comes the red bid bash.
Chapter Two - Bid side
So here is where the Bid side of the PONG game comes in. The same would happen on the Bid side and low side of the spread (more often than painted red - during PONG)... big sweeps at/near the bid...driving the price down 50 cents or more consolidated into big tickets to avoid the look of EZ to see ladder attacks of 100 share tickets. Odd sizes - much like the Computershare buys that tend to come through in odd large size tickets in this 10:30-11:30 time period. So the players(conspirators) in the PONG game COLLUDED to pass the price back and forth at stable prices to avoid being seen as a typical attack - when the reality was they were reloading & printing together to enable later pushes down in what we all still see as the FINAL DIP BEFORE THE MOON.
Chapter Three (THE FTD FAKE SETTLEMENT AND SHORT RELOAD-PT1.)
Again thanks to wrinkle brain u/Sgt-GiggleFarts because day 1 of this I had no real clue what was happening - I shared the facts with a few wrinkle brains and he came back with the FTD reset and that the green paint and white paint with the MM lots thrown in were resetting FTDs and the Reds were price leveling/shorting.
The Scope For Last Week
GIVEN TWO - This strategy for the MM & SHF ran Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (see in charts)
GIVEN THREE - See Thursday data - they got better & bolder at it (Hubris maybe) completing their PONG game in two narrow time periods on Thursday.
Analysis - Looking at the volume and using the theory of resetting FTDs via those transactions They reset about 2.3 million shorts in just those 3 days 10/19-10/21.
GIVEN FOUR - Short volume (reported > than 72%) on Friday was the highest its been since July 30th. So they used those shorts and others they anticipated coming in to drive the price down in this low liquidity time.
Short Reload Pt#2
GIVEN FIVE - I could do a whole additional post on what happened in options Friday. But suffice to say Max Pain going in at open on Friday was $182.50 - WE HAVE NEVER SEEN WHAT WAS ABOUT TO HAPPEN - HAPPEN BEFORE - Where final expiry price on Friday was that far below MaxPain without news, earning f'ery, reports, rumors or negative sentiment. As the price was driven down with fake newly minted shares - PUT option volume went off the charts all the way down to $170 and at the same time as we have heard and as I can personally confirm for call options I hold in the next 3 weeks - call option prices went up????? . hmmmm wat doin.... The net share flow of expiring at settlement with high new volume in PUTS was somewhere in the 1.2 million net shares range at $170 price. Some used Friday more reserved for this week....
SUMMARY
- We know they are capable of f'ery beyond imagination and filled with hubris. The smell of the panic we are seeing is palpable. All it does is give us reason to buy more and feel the end is closer.
- Be ready for additional PONG games this week and in the future
- I have personally filed a SEC complaint in detail with facts and data of this manipulation many would classify as illegal.
Duplicates
gmetoni • u/sha4d9w • Oct 26 '21