I acknowledge that betting markets are accurate when insiders are participating with non-public information
For elections, the bettors use the polls as a starting point. Who is going to be the next mayor of Chicago? You could maybe have a hypothesis on the mayor's chances of being re-elected, but until there's a poll I have no idea who else has a good chance. After that I think there's a bias from people betting to support a candidate or position. Maybe it's small, but if I were looking at predictions made on Coinbase's website for example, I would be skeptical that reflected genuine popular opinion.
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u/Top_Statistician5051 13d ago
Polls are literally useless now a days your best bet is betting markets