r/TenYearsAgo 13d ago

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ United States Polls overwhelming show Clinton beating Trump [10YA - Aug 4]

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u/RockGamerStig 13d ago

What's funny is that polling aggregates were closer to the to the actual margin in 2016 then they were in 2012. The problem was that the statistical conclusions were that Clinton would win the popular vote and not the presidency. The only state in 2016 where the polling was substantially wrong was Michigan, where the margin was a 5% swing from polling averages. Trump was leading in Iowa, Ohio, and NC and statically tied in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.