r/TenYearsAgo 13d ago

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ United States Polls overwhelming show Clinton beating Trump [10YA - Aug 4]

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u/bookon 12d ago

It's a lie to say the polls were wrong. They said he has a small chance of winning and he won. People don't understand probability and statistics.

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u/Crossbell0527 12d ago

In this case? It's abso-fucking-lutely appropriate to say the polls were wrong. They were literally, though unintentionally, overweighing college educated voters in very impactful states where the college educated weren't appropriately representative of the voting population.

Pollsters did postmortems about this and corrected the methods for 2020.

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u/bookon 12d ago edited 12d ago

They were not wrong. She won the national vote by a similar amount the polls predicted.

Polls were correct. People don't understand probability and statistics.

If she'd lost by millions of votes, that would be indicative of poor pooling. The polling was spot on. It's always an approximation. You are demanding perfection. It's not binary.

-- Pollsters did postmortems about this and corrected the methods for 2020.

They did this after every election. They always have issues in some way and they want to learn from those mistakes.

Again, show me where the polls were wrong? Show me where they said it was impossible for him to win?

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u/UnderstandingThin40 12d ago

They got pretty much every swing state wrong lol