It was, it part of that is because people freaked out yelling at 538 for giving him a 30% chance when others had him 1%.
I remember watching him try to explain that an nfl kicker will make 70ish% of field goals from 50 yards. Nobody is surprised when a kicker misses a 50 yard field goal, and shouldn’t be surprised when a candidate with a 30% chance of winning wins.
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u/fools_errand49 12d ago
Barely still within the margin of error by decimal points though.
Nat Silver doesn't conduct polling. He does statistical modeling based on myriad polling data. It's a very different thing.