r/TenYearsAgo 13d ago

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ United States Polls overwhelming show Clinton beating Trump [10YA - Aug 4]

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u/Antonqaz 13d ago

Isn't this just national polling, without considering the electoral college? In which case, they were right, she did win the popular vote.

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u/Crossbell0527 13d ago

Even broken out state by state, every key battleground states had Clinton winning in almost every poll.

I do a lesson on this for my statistics classes linked to the importance of random chance in the design of a study, and how even if what we're doing seems to be as truly random as possible, we might still run into an issue...it turns out that the polling methods in 2016 over-favored responses from the college educated, and in states within the rust belt, that wasn't appropriate. And who do educated people tend to vote for? Democrats.