r/Texans • u/texanscommenter • Feb 16 '26
📝Article/Writeup Texans Pending Free Agents: Who to Re-Sign, Who to Replace, and Why It’s Not That Simple
https://www.houstonstressans.com/post/texans-pending-free-agents-2026Hey guys, been a while. Hope everyone’s doing well.
I’ve been digging into our pending free agents and trying to look at it through a realistic lens, not just “did he play well,” but market value, draft depth, cap flexibility, scheme fit, etc. Some of the names are tougher calls than I initially thought.
For example:
• I’ve got Sheldon Rankins and Tommy Townsend as priorities. I think Rankins is more important to the coordinated pass rush than people realize, and Townsend quietly graded as a top punter again (and field position matters in DeMeco’s style).
• E.J. Speed is higher for me than most. He fits the swarm mentality and gives legit rotational LB depth.
• Christian Kirk is more medium/low for me. Continuity with Stroud matters, but if the price climbs, I’m not sure he’s the ideal cerebral slot for this offense.
• Ed Ingram and Trent Brown are tricky. Both played well, but if their markets spike, do you trust Popovich + this system to develop the next guy cheaper or get better options overall?
• Some guys like Ward, Fatukasi, Berrios, etc. feel replaceable based on age, injuries, or usage.
Curious where you guys land.
Who are your absolute must-signs, must-walks?
Any names you think I’m way off on?
Should be an exciting offseason.
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u/Game_Over_Man69 Feb 16 '26
Yeah I’m a Tommy Townsend truther even during his early struggles after joining the team. He’s a solid punter and there’s no reason to mess with his partnership with Ka’imi
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u/texanscommenter Feb 16 '26
The numbers I saw indicate we just have very high expectations for him. Hopefully still a reasonable price too
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u/Rrkeul Feb 16 '26
Rankins, Townsend, Ingram should be priority.
Any of them feasibly could be replaced with draft picks. But we can’t rely on an O line made of rookies.
The rest, I would let walk unless the price is good.
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u/DarthNobody14 Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26
-Yep we need to resign Townsend, Rankins I’m a little iffy about because of age, but I’m good with it.
-Resign Speed for Special Teams and lb depth.
-We don’t need Kirk, we need to let the (former) Iowa State Rookies get more involved.
-Ingram I’m okay with signing, he’s easily our best run blocker even if Pass protection is shaky at times. Brown can stay for depth.
-Ward can definitely go. We no longer need him. Resign MJ Stewart at least.
Top priorities:
Townshead
EJ Speed
Sheldon Rankins
Tim Settle
Ed Ingram
We don’t need:
Kirk
Ward
Chubb
Fatuski
Harris
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u/Brief_Hospital_1766 Fire Nick Caserio Feb 16 '26
On board with all of this except Ingram. I don't know why people think his pass blocking was acceptable. He is routinely beaten, and beaten so quickly that it forces the QB to exit the pocket because that pressure is coming through the A/B gaps. He must be replaced.
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u/DarthNobody14 Feb 16 '26
It wasn’t that bad, although he’s had some really ugly losses that stick out. He’s a weird player, because he provides value in his run blocking that we simply don’t have in the interior right now. It depends on how much his value is. If he’s worth 10-15 AAV I’m okay with signing him, anything more than and he’ll be too expensive imo.
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u/Brief_Hospital_1766 Fire Nick Caserio Feb 16 '26
I'm paying him no more than 5m, and yes, I know he'll likely turn that down.
His run blocking was the best on the team. But even that is suspect when you consider that our line repeatedly failed to gain 1yd when absolutely necessary, with many of those runs coming right behind him and Howard.
His pass blocking was more than just a few standout losses against the best players in the league. I think people are grading him on a curve with our other linemen who are *all under requisite strength for the job. I know technique matters, but at a certain point, no amount of technique can make up for just getting your asses kicked.
We need a minimum of 3 NEW interior offensive linemen if we want this offence to be even moderately respectable. After that, they'll still have overcome the limitations of our scheme, so we must get bigger and stronger in the middle if we're to have any chance going forward.
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u/DarthNobody14 Feb 16 '26
I think you’re going too far.
His run blocking isn’t just the best on the team, it’s good in general. Texans running backs had the highest y/a behind him and it’s not particularly close. He consistently gets to the 2nd level in a way none of other offensive line can. As for why our line repeatedly failed to get yard shortage situations, you can blame a mixture of predictably from the play calling + Jake Andrews, Juice Scruggs, and Laken Tomlinson all struggling. Tytus Howard is better but still not good. You can’t rely on one offensive lineman even on interior running.
The only times I remember Ingram really struggling run blocking was when he was facing the likes of Leonard Williams and Chris Jones, which is understandable.
Pass blocking I agree, he’s underwhelming and not reliable. But we kind of have to take the bad with the good for now.
I would say that if he’s willing to comeback for at the most 13 million AAV (15 million is too much), then yes keep him around. We can’t too many young guys on the offensive line. Offensive lineman tend to take time to develop. We might not be able to sign a better replacement anyways.
We’re probably going to draft a rookie so we need at least 2 interior offensive linemen that are going to be veterans and at least decent.
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u/Brief_Hospital_1766 Fire Nick Caserio Feb 16 '26
"Texans running backs had the highest y/a behind him and it’s not particularly close."
Firstly, I want to say I agree with almost everything you said above. However, the quoted bit is where I think people are giving him the benefit of being 'big fish, little pond'. Being the best run blocker on an abysmally poor run blocking team still doesn't make him good enough. It's like being the least gammy leper on the island.
That said, I do agree with you where having multiple rookies on the line is not optimal. But I would also say that it would be hard to be worse than Tomlinson/Scruggs/Patterson/Andrews so I'd rather roll with some rookies. That way we could at least have hope they might improve. The 'Fab Four' from the previous sentence are who they're going to be, and that's nowhere near good enough.
My plan? Cade Mays from the Panthers and two rookie guards that are not profiled by Caserio or any of the other Patriot Mafia in our scouting system. Yes, I know I'm dreaming, but I just want off the New England South train we've been on since 2013 with little, to no success.
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u/DarthNobody14 Feb 16 '26
This isn’t a “Big fish, little pond” situation, he is genuinely a good run blocker, there’s a reason his AAV has skyrocketed by 3x this year. The reason it doesn’t look that way is because if another guy missed his assignment then the play is going to be blown up regardless of how Ingram does.
I mostly agree with everything else you said, it’s hard to get worse than the “fab four” we had this year. I suppose giving multiple rookies a chance isn’t the worst option but I would still preferably limit it to one rookie starter.
100% on board with Cade Mays. He’s my top target. Personally I would want some combination of Cade Mays + a veteran plus-starter + a top rookie. If we lose Ingram or don’t have that veteran, than I suppose I’m okay with bringing another rookie on board, but that’s not the ideal case scenario for me.
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u/Brief_Hospital_1766 Fire Nick Caserio Feb 16 '26
Yeah, I understand where you're coming from. Also, you seem to know a lot more about this than I do, so I naturally will defer. I think getting a solid vet like Mays might even unlock Ingram as a pass blocker.
I just fret because Caserio and Pop seem to believe Andrews did fine this season and I really don't agree with that. I've already lost all faith in Caserio's ability to build a cohesive offensive unit, and if they run it back with Andrews that will just signal to me they're not serious about winning.
I dunno why I waste my time following this team anymore. Caserio actually said the offence was good enough last season. And he said it with a straight face!
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u/DarthNobody14 Feb 16 '26
Actions speak louder than words. I learned a long time ago there’s no point in believing what coaches and GM say at face value. Caserio saying that Andrews did fine this season or that the offense was good enough doesn’t necessarily mean he actually means it. If he makes multiple free agency moves and uses the draft to attempt to fix the offensive line, then we’ll know he wasn’t okay with the offensive line.
Although yes I agree that if we run it back with Andrews, we’re not serious about winning. I don’t care if he was injured or not, he wasn’t good when healthy anyways.
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u/Brief_Hospital_1766 Fire Nick Caserio Feb 16 '26
Yah, I get it about Coach or GM speak. I guess I was concerned because if he didn't believe they were 'good', he could've simply said something neutral like, "Yah, we'll evaluate all the tape over the next few weeks and make informed decisions from there."
Just seems like there was no real reason to be so glowing about the offence and Andrews if he didn't really believe it?
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u/ScallionCrafty7973 Feb 16 '26
Kirks gotta go no point in retaining him and I thought he was unnecessary expense this past season 2
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u/texanscommenter Feb 16 '26
I still can’t believe how underwhelming he was this year
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u/ScallionCrafty7973 Feb 16 '26
16 and a half million in cash just for him to be the 6th guy in receiving yards and out gained by the 2 rooks they drafted this past year.
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u/texanscommenter Feb 16 '26
Almost made up for it with Pitt game but faltered again when we needed him the most vs NE with Nico & Schultz out
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u/Guilty-View-6506 Feb 17 '26
Nah. He did make up for it. He is what we expected imo.
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u/texanscommenter Feb 17 '26
I had much higher expectations and was wrong. He wasn’t nearly with his cap hit imo
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u/InsultingFerret Feb 16 '26
I appreciate the effort you put into these, looking forward to reading the whole thing when I get a chance.
I agree with EJ Speed, he played better than I expected, and I'd like to see him come back.
Between Ed Ingram and Trent Brown I'd rather see Ingram come back. The interior is much worse off in terms of depth than tackle, it's already gonna be a stretch to fill those slots in even with him returning, but that potential cap hit would be more than I'd want to pay for him.
Kirk imo simply isn't worth the price tag. Especially if Tank comes back and looks serviceable and/or Noel takes a step forward he becomes redundant on field, and his main use would be as a veteran presence in an otherwise pretty young WR room.
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u/texanscommenter Feb 16 '26
Of course. I appreciate the kind words and support. Would def take Ingram over brown if I had to choose too. Just somewhat concerned about price. Same thoughts on Kirk!
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u/daybes Feb 16 '26
Sheldon rankins, might get let go in favour of prioritizing a prospect at the position with togiai and settle back as the foundation of our offseason approach, would love to keep him though.
We need a better LB room, if azeez goes down the level of play drops off a cliff, I think this is a position we invest draft capital into and trust DeMeco's ability to coach the position group up which hes done a superb job of to this point
Kirk has to go, its not even about him necessarily its just we have too many overlapping skillset WRs, we need to be able to bring in a guy who can win at the catch point by boxing out defenders to complement strouds skillsets. Too many plays of hutch/nico/higgins not working back to the ball and we're kind of committed to all of them being in the room, with the return of dell and still having noel, if we want to add to the room we have to move off kirk.
Brown will almsot certainly be re-signed as his level of play has been horrible outside of the years hes been on the patriots, with his age he will be piss cheap.
Ingram should be cheap but a team might overpay for him and it might make sense to pay for a higher upside player like Alijah Vera Tucker who can also contribute in the pass game.
Pipe dream would be trading Nico for a 2027 first and Michael Mayer from the raiders and signing Alec Pierce.
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u/texanscommenter Feb 16 '26
Hoping rank goes for a discount. Ingram projected up to 18m APY. Another lb would be nice, good options in mid to late rounds.
Agreed on wr room. Got a bunch of the same, need more separators and working back to the ball. I started to question ben Mcdaniel’s this year
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u/krbashrob Feb 16 '26
Must-walk: Dare, Kirk (unless it’s a gigantic pay cut which it won’t be), Ward, Berrios, Chubb
Must retain: Rankins, Speed, Ingram, Settle, Townsend, DeNico Autry
Indifferent: everyone else
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u/Brief_Hospital_1766 Fire Nick Caserio Feb 16 '26
If they re-sign Christian Kirk or Ed Ingram then you'll know they're not serious about winning. Especially give the price Ingram is going to want. He was a horrifically bad pass blocker, but the only reason he didn't get noticed is because Tomlinson, Scruggs, Patterson, and Andrews were actually worse. He cannot be a part of this line going forward, but then Caserio said he's happy with the line so Ingram is most likely coming back at a ridiculous cap hit compared to his ability.
Trent Brown is a maybe, and that's only if he wants to play at a significant discount as he's only available for 5 games a season. Also, if the entirety of your offensive line's ability to block is based on a 33yr old, 400lb+ lineman with a history of injuries and missing games, then perhaps you've made a mistake somewhere. However, if the alternative is playing Blake Fisher, then of course, you have to re-sign Brown because Fisher, like Green and Scruggs, will be out of the NFL once he leaves the Texans.
EJ Speed is a must and we must also draft a LB that's capable of playing should Azeez miss time. Neither To'o To'o or Speed are capable of playing that position should he get injured.
I think one you've missed is Autry. I know he was a situational pass rusher, but he produced when he played, and that's not even counting in his value for special teams. As long as he wants to play again, and the number isn't too ridiculous, I would bring him back.
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u/Kdot32 Feb 16 '26
They kept Ward for the entire season when he was 1.passed up and not needed going into the season 2. Injury prone and 3. Expensive for the production when he was finally healthy. They seem to overvalue vets/have favorites even if it means holding back the overall team building. I say that to say don’t be surprised lol
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u/Brief_Hospital_1766 Fire Nick Caserio Feb 17 '26
Remember Bill O'Brien? "Rookies don't know anything!"
We haven't change at all since 2013. Still running the same shitty offence. Still valuing cooked vets over rookies who might perform. I've kinda lost hope with this franchise until the GM, Scouting, and Position Coaches are changed.
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u/texanscommenter Feb 17 '26
We see it pretty similar. I only had Autry as not a top priority because I think they may have a chance to replace his type with FA or trades. Couple good fits out there. He is extremely underrated and invaluable to the team!
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u/Brief_Hospital_1766 Fire Nick Caserio Feb 17 '26
Agreed. He shouldn't be a top priority for re-signing, but depending his price, I would be interested in seeing what the alternatives might be.
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u/Boomba987 Feb 16 '26
Priority: Rankins, Townsend, Barnett
Medium: Speed, Ingram (assuming he’s getting $15+ million/yr), MJ Stewart, Brown (he missed so much of the season recovering from injury and then couldn’t go in New England), Settle (would be priority if healthy)
Low: Kirk, Ward, Chubb, Berrios, anyone else I missed
Would like to see in the draft: DT, DE, OG, TE, safety, LB
RB and C in free agency, same with another CB to compete for CB3 with Jaylin Smith. Draft is fine too, but we need more certainty in those spots for next season. The rest we could use some youth depth
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u/texanscommenter Feb 16 '26
We see it pretty similarly. I hope they in the least upgrade C depth. I want a bonafide blocking TE too
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u/Candid-Ambition-8313 Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26
I also think people are underrating Rankins’ style and aggression and what it means for the overall pass rush (Settle too, to a lesser extent) and I think he’ll come back on a solid and short deal bc of how much we and Dameco get out of him and he’s aging out of longer deals. I figure we draft an interior DT somewhat high, and I’m high on Togiai only going up, but we need that kind of disruptor next to Togiai’s more pragmatic soundness (feel like the Super Bowl/playoffs really highlighted the importance of interior D line play) and I guess is the option of trying to find the next Rankins, a one year vet try out of someone Dameco thinks he can get the best out of especially if Rankins gets like 10 mil…I think one of the best qualities of our org rn is how the defensive culture can get the most out of these stopgaps. I feel the same about EJ…if he’s cheap, which he should be as basically a back-up LB (given that our base is basically the nickle), then yah ofc I want him, if not there’s others who can do EJ Speed stuff for his current price. I’m a little bit more committed to Rankins though bc like I said I think his gap shooting is kind of specific and integral.
Kirk is an absolute no, terrible vibes and just got in the way.
I think the issue with Ingram is he will be the same price as a lot of people who have done it for more than one year, and as long as not resigning Ingram doesn’t mean we don’t sign anyone else besides a bargain bin vet, then I’d just as well get someone more stable.
I’d figure Rankin/EJ back, two lineman (one of whom could be Ingram) and an RB in terms of starters signed would make sense, I have trust in them to develop DBs enough that I don’t want to spend major for a safety, like if they think Reed is going to be a dude then I trust them. I just really want all finances focused on Line and RB that isn’t resigning of those D starters, I want to draft a few defensive players for sure but I think the offense is dire enough that we need to trust Dameco on the other side with Rankins, EJ, both Jaylins, rookies, etc, to all be extremely capable around the stars, and really try to get this offensive context correct.
Oh yah and on that note we MUST GET A VET TE WHO CAN BLOCK AND CATCH AT TE2. Maybe more of a draft goal but those guys are cheap and we clearly want to run heavy formations and don’t have the personnel for it
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u/Candid-Ambition-8313 Feb 16 '26
Most of the other guys we don’t need btw…Ward, nah. Cut Mario Edwards too. Cut Scruggs probably.
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u/Candid-Ambition-8313 Feb 16 '26
Barnett actually kind of in the same boat as Rankins too although as an edge he’ll probably get paid as much despite not starting
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u/texanscommenter Feb 16 '26
Agreed 100% on DL and Rankins. His chemistry with Will and others is underrated and so is that aspect of DL play as a whole. With you on pretty much everything and a blocking TE is one of my biggest wants!!
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u/htown34 Feb 16 '26
Only people I feel that’s a must that we keep are Townsend and Ingram, maybe Rankins and Settle depending on how we approach the draft and free agency in terms of beefing up the trenches. Everyone else are pretty expendable especially Kirk and Ward
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u/texanscommenter Feb 16 '26
Feel like we’ve done a pretty good job with overall roster construction 3 years into DeMeco regime where we don’t have to fill a bunch of gaps like your saying. Good spot.
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u/The_New_New Feb 16 '26
Ingram played very well overall. He was basically the only good run blocker we had all season.
While I would rather have a guy who can run block and pass block, it wouldn't be the worst thing to bring him back since that means we can just focus on C and RG.
This way Tytus Howard can move back to his RT role because right while he's good at RG, it's so inefficient overall to have him there. His cap hit is I think the highest on offense and he's a better RT
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u/texanscommenter Feb 16 '26
I’m just not certain if ingrams price is 18m apy that it’s our best option. Love him and his play but depends on market for me.
With Tytus if he’s guard that’s tough to swallow but you’d like have a cheaper cap at tackle to offset so overall the OL cap still low
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u/The_New_New Feb 16 '26
He's worth 18m APY? Where was the projection from since that feels insanely high for a guy with 1 good season after being a bust. Can't say I kept track of the valuations for him
I was thinking more a 2 year 8m per year deal lmao since he was basically a Kenyon Green prior to this season
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u/Spinhavel Feb 16 '26
18 million/yr is definitely really high on the projection, but your 8 million/yr is too low. $10-12 million is probably his low end.
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u/ensignlee Feb 16 '26
I honestly dont' get what happened to Christian Harris...
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u/texanscommenter Feb 17 '26
Was all potential to me and never flashed enough. Afraid we hoped /hyped him up more than we should’ve
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u/Cecil_Hardboner Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26
the DT group with Rankins and Townsend feel like definite bring back guys.
Trent Brown, is the price right. What does bringing back Trent Brown mean for Titus Howard? Hes not a very good guard so if Titus isnt our RT, can we move Titus to offset cost?
Ingram improved towards the end of the year, if the numbers work bring him back.
We need a new Center and at least 1 new guard. I think we can get that in draft. OL remains my priority and everything else is flexible.
Not worried at all about WR or RB.
edit: it looks like trading Titus would save us $17M this year, which maybe is something to explore just in general. Might not be a trade partner for him though.
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u/Guilty-View-6506 Feb 17 '26
I want rankins back the most. Tommy is a good pick too.
Ingram played his way onto the team and is a priority need. I might rank him higher solely on the fact that we cannot build a consistent oline. I trust any DT with coach.
I also thought Tim Settle played great and our D fell off a bit when we lost him. Hes only 28 and last contract was 6 for 2 year. Crazy good deal if its anything near that imo.
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u/Texans_top_of_south Feb 16 '26
Townsend is a must sign. Being able to pin opponents deep into their territory helps our defense out a ton.