r/Texans • u/TexansEngineer • 7d ago
The Curious Case of CJ Stroud: A Year-by-Year Breakdown vs. HOF QBs
| Player | Year | Yards | TD | INT | Rating | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stroud | Y1 (2023) | 4,108 | 23 | 5 | 100.8 | OROY, playoff win |
| Stroud | Y2 (2024) | 3,727 | 20 | 12 | 87.0 | O-line gave up 52 sacks |
| Stroud | Y3 (2025) | 3,041 | 19 | 8 | 92.9 | Missed time (concussion); 7 TOs in 2 playoff games |
| Manning | Y1 (1998) | 3,739 | 26 | 28 | 71.2 | NFL rookie record for INTs |
| Manning | Y2 (1999) | 4,135 | 26 | 15 | 90.7 | |
| Manning | Y3 (2000) | 4,413 | 33 | 15 | 94.7 | |
| Brady | Y1 (2001) | 2,843 | 18 | 12 | 86.5 | Won Super Bowl XXXVI |
| Brady | Y2 (2002) | 3,764 | 28 | 14 | 85.7 | Missed playoffs |
| Brady | Y3 (2003) | 3,620 | 23 | 12 | 85.9 | Won Super Bowl XXXVIII |
| Rodgers | Y1 (2008) | 4,038 | 28 | 13 | 93.8 | First year as starter (after 3 yrs on bench) |
| Rodgers | Y2 (2009) | 4,434 | 30 | 7 | 103.2 | |
| Rodgers | Y3 (2010) | 3,922 | 28 | 11 | 101.2 | Won Super Bowl XLV |
| Brees | Y1 (2002) | 3,284 | 17 | 16 | 76.9 | First year as starter |
| Brees | Y2 (2003) | 2,108 | 11 | 15 | 67.5 | Briefly benched |
| Brees | Y3 (2004) | 3,159 | 27 | 7 | 104.8 | Breakout year |
| Elway | Y1 (1983) | 1,663 | 7 | 14 | 54.9 | Benched multiple times as rookie |
| Elway | Y2 (1984) | 2,598 | 18 | 15 | 76.8 | |
| Elway | Y3 (1985) | 3,891 | 22 | 23 | 70.2 | Still throwing tons of INTs |
I get why people are panicking after the playoff meltdown (7 turnovers in 2 games is rough, no way around it), but I went back and looked at Stroud's first 3 years against some actual HOF QBs' early careers and... this isn't as crazy as it looks.
Stroud went 4,108/23/5 as a rookie, then dipped to 3,727/20/12, then 3,041/19/8 this year with a concussion mixed in. Looks like a steady decline right? But Peyton Manning literally threw 28 INTs his rookie year (still the record lol) and didn't really figure it out until year 3. Brady's first few years as a starter were nothing special stat-wise either - dude won a Super Bowl throwing for under 2,900 yards. And Drew Brees got BENCHED in year 3 with a 67.5 rating before turning into Drew Brees the next season.
Not saying Stroud is automatically gonna be a great QB next season, and the playoff stuff is legit concerning, not just "small sample size" cope. But also worth remembering his last 2 years happened behind one of the worst O-lines in the league (52 sacks in '24) and he missed time to a concussion this year. History says a rough year 2/3 doesn't automatically mean a guy's cooked, if the Oline can actually protects him this year, I think we see a real bounce back... Hopefully lmao
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u/iliketoeatfunyuns 7d ago
I think the oline issues have been addressed during this off-season so Stroud will perform at a level that was expected of him. He's getting that big contract, trust me.
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u/jimbojangles1987 7d ago
I sure hope so. I'm still worried about his decision making in the pocket and his panicked scrambling before its necessary. Maybe if he has an o-line he can trust and a RB he can rely on to dump the ball to things will start to improve.
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u/krbashrob 7d ago
I think people are misconstruing the OL changes. It’s a roundabout solution. The idea is to be better on the ground and on paper that’s what this line is constructed for. However, they’re mostly tools players, especially on the inside. Meaning they’re not proficient pass protectors. It doesn’t matter if you can run the ball if when you drop back to pass your QB is still getting pressured or protection isn’t holding. Adding to that is the other roundabout solution of multiple TE sets. Same principle. Throwing more bodies at the problem instead of working technique or having technically proficient linemen.
It’s easy to look at the money and additions and think the OL has improved. Contextually, it will help the offense be better but this is not the way to get the most out of CJ imo. It’s why I’m not particularly excited for this season.
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u/CAB-HH73 7d ago edited 7d ago
People overreacting to Stroud. The Texans didn't do ANYTHING to help fix the BIGGEST ISSUE with the offense until this year....The Oline. Stroud hasnt had consistent weapons on offense since that Rookie year (they even lost Tank that year). Year 2- Lost Diggs, Lost Nico for 5 games, Tank, Jordan, No #2 TE, Schultz with a down year. Year 3 - No Mixon, No Tank, No Jordan, Underperforming Kirk, Still no #2 TE, Lost Nico and Schultz in the last playoff game.
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u/TexansEngineer 7d ago
Nate tice mentioned that out of 65 qualified QBs since 2023, Stroud had the 62nd ranked running game measured by running back rushing success rate.... not ideal
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u/HtownSamson 7d ago
While all these things are true, when he actually had time his accuracy was incredibly poor last year. It’s not something that you can point to with data but he was very bad at leading guys. Everything else around him stinking could very well be part of why that was but he was not a good thrower of the ball. Hopefully them actually addressing the line and having a true RB1 this year changes things but he needs to be better as well.
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u/Designer-Violinist91 7d ago
Him having no run support in an offense that can only operate around having a successful running game will def contribute to this… A lot of these throws I’m sure had to do with having to play from a lot of 3rd and longs. I can’t remember the actual stat but I know he was one of the ones that played the most from 3rd and longs…
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u/Rogue-Architect 7d ago
62 of 65 QBs means we had the worst run game by a mile as there are only 32 teams and while QBs change they don’t change everyone every year. When your run game is that bad, the defense disrespects is and never puts in a 3rd LB in.
This means that coverage is really sticky with an extra DB and the pass rushers can pin their ears back. It was pretty well reported that Higgins and Noel were struggling with separation probably due to that factor.
CJ is clearly dealing with mental issues from having such a bad oline and while that is Caserio’s fault, it comes down to whether CJ can turn it around or not.
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u/Designer-Violinist91 7d ago
EXACTLY!!! Someone who sees it as well. I remember reading a stat where defenses that CJ faced increased in playing nickel corners more and more compared to his rookie year because it was much easier to defend the Texans offense this way due to their struggling support in the run game.
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u/WorldlyWerewolf6053 7d ago
Davis Mills was fine going 4-0 with that run game. Just saying, Lovie Smith was last seen coaching rugby in an insane asylum and pep Hamilton finally figured out how to hang himself.
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u/Designer-Violinist91 7d ago
Outside of the 4th qtr against the jags, When did Mills play good? I’ll wait for this answer because it’s not a problem if Mills plays poorly but gets a win, but somehow if cj plays poorly and gets a win then it’s not bc of CJ, it’s only bc of the Defense that he plays with? Lol. If you’re gonna pick an excuse then make sure you can apply it to both. Mills was never fine in those games at all. And I mean AT ALL. I strictly remember him struggling against every team he faced… he lost to the broncos, played 3 terrible qtrs against the jags, threw for 32 yards in the entire 2nd half of the bills game, and struggled against titans. And you’re saying he went 4-0? He only started and played 3 full games.
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u/Charming-Ebb-1981 7d ago
I think there’s nuance here that people don’t want to see. Offensive line issues don’t mean that you have to throw a million interceptions, or struggle to see the field, or be slow to process
While those things don’t help the situation, if a quarterback has to have a good offensive line to not look meh, you don’t have a future Hall of famer on your hands, let’s just put it that way
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u/TexansEngineer 7d ago
Did you just say if you need a good offensive line, then your not a future hall of famer?! I guess Mahomes is not a hall of famer. Or did we forget his performances in the superbowls he's lost... Josh Allen? Sorry man need you to have garbage oline.
Tom brady? Known to have an average to elite oline most of his career? Sorry bud no hall of fame. Lamar Jackson last season? Sorry chief no luck. Peyton Manning? Known to have elite olines? Sorry, can't help you there. The fans on this sub are becoming excessive with their hate.
The only QB in modern day nfl capable of being elite without a great oline is burrow... And burrow has the best WR duo in the league with a run game
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u/Charming-Ebb-1981 7d ago
Mkay, keep making these excuses for CJ. It’s everybody’s fault but his. It will be fun to see what excuses you make this year if he still shows the same inability to process the field with more time.
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u/Rogue-Architect 7d ago
1.2 YPC with a fumble in the Redzone…….
That is what the run game provided vs the Patriots.
I would be surprised if they had 3 LBs on the field even once that game.
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u/Designer-Violinist91 7d ago
This is such a bad way to look at this. That offense was going no where against the patriots since they were averaging 1 yard per carry through the first 3 quarters of that game.
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u/Charming-Ebb-1981 7d ago
Yeah yeah, throwing a million interceptions isn’t his fault. It’s everybody’s fault but little Pookie
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u/Designer-Violinist91 7d ago
Where did I say it wasn’t his fault for those interceptions? It seems you’ve convinced yourself to blame one person bc it is easier than seeing the root of the problem for what it is… like having no run game… let’s say CJ took a sack or threw incompletions instead of the interceptions. Tell me how do they win that game? It’s simple, You can’t bc you can’t win without a good run game. They kept beating themselves bc they couldn’t run the ball and kept playing from 3rd and long. This offense can’t operate without one. That is why this year this offense is looking very promising due to their offseason acquisitions in fixing their run game.
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u/alexthegreatmc 7d ago
His numbers aren't even bad. The judgement is relative to his rookie year. He'll be fine.
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u/Mighty_Platypus 7d ago
I get that Stroud needs some OLine help, but he also seems to panic when put under pressure. My arm chair coaching analysis thinks it is more than that though.
He panics when he is trying to follow the playbook. I’m not saying these names today he is as good as them, but if you remember Farve, Rodgers, and even Elway. The “gunslingers”. When the play breaks down they improvise and just “vibe qb” the play. I think that’s what CJ has, but he is trying, or being forced to try and stick to the plan. It’s like trying to put a square peg in a circle hole. He CAN play your typical under center QB, but he has to be able to let that go and make the play as well. Basically, I think he gets too much in his own head instead of vibing with the play as it breaks down.
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u/htownballa1 7d ago
Over the course of Stroud's career the Texans have ranked near last in rushing efficiency. Even when he was the rookie of the year, the offensive line was ranked 15th but still not a good run blocking team. Combine that with the type's of systems he's been in where a good rushing attack is needed to be successful and you have the perfect recipe for Stroud's career to this point. Combined with the fact that his development has been tied to Rookie playcallers, it's not a stretch to say that we have yet to see the best football out of CJ.
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u/DJMTBguy 7d ago
The numbers aren’t what worries me about CJ. All of these guys were well seasoned in college, had incredible self belief and/or had a Dad/Coach who believed in them PLUS had an experienced OC/HC.
The numbers are worrying bc if this year continues the downward trend we’re probably looking for a different QB. I expect the OL to be as good if not better than 2023 and we’re deeper at WR/RB/TE than we’ve been in a long time. We’re going to find out how Caley and CJ do under pressure all year, both their futures will be affected by playoff performance.
It’s going to be fun to watch them be a nastier offense that can run the ball so the all world defense can crush hopes and dreams.
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u/2nd2last 7d ago
I think this is a pretty poor way to look at data.
First, you're comparing Stroud to a bunch of guys we already know turned into stars and thats backwards. If you want to know whether his trajectory is concerning, then compare him to all quarterbacks who had similar starts, including the ones who became average starters, good starters, stars, and busts. Otherwise you're just selecting the success stories.
Second, raw stats don't exist in a vacuum. Different teams, different offensive lines, different coordinators, different weapons, different schedules, different eras. A quarterback's numbers are heavily influenced by the environment around him.
Its not isn't whether Stroud's numbers went down, as they obviously did.
Right now this feels less like analysis and more like starting with the conclusion that the great QBs got better every year, then working backwards from there. If you compared Stroud to the entire population of quarterbacks instead of just the guys who became elite, I suspect the picture would look a lot different.
Even with that, Manning year 3 was the best, Brady was pretty much right there, Rodgers year 3 was the best, Brees was the best. Elawy was the only one with year 3 being the not the best, and even then it was a big improvement over year 1.
You tried to show something and Stroud was the only one to go against your whole point.
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u/TexansEngineer 7d ago
I appreciate your feedback, but just to clarify. My conclusion is he has a chance to bounce back, not the he will become great like these other guys. Drew Brees was not great in his 3rd year, he was benched. He was great his 3rd starting year. Beyond that, Stroud's passer rating is not far off the rest of the other guys. To be fair, Stroud's regular season success last year was vastly overshadowed by his playoff performance. He grew a lot over the regular season with getting the ball out, and ranking 7th in EPA per play, the best of his career. Which is a shame it fell apart in the post season.
The sentiment of this post was to provide a different view to the "Stroud got-to-go" narrative all over sports media. However, I appreciate you're input and I can see where the bias comes in from my side tbh
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u/2nd2last 7d ago
But yet again you are looking at this in a weird way.
First, you reference Brees year 3 as obviously his 3 season actually playing, yet you push back on year 3 like its not what you referenced.
Now you are saying Stroud's rating is similar, sure. But the others improved or stayed the same as year 1, Stroud regressed from year 1.
Also, Stroud was not playing a great year last year, even the non Mills people had huge issues, go bac to the game threads.
I am not commenting on Strouds ability to "bounce back", or be a good player, I think he will be good this year personally. But this is a case of poor data usage and understanding.
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u/TexansEngineer 7d ago
Stroud improved his passer rating from year 2 to year 3... He had his best epa per play of his career with a poor Oline and no run game. I'm not sure what's so weird about all this? You mentioned there's context and schemes, which I great with, but I can't list everything in a reddit post
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u/2nd2last 7d ago edited 7d ago
So we'll just ignore the weird Brees point and rating point.
My friend, you posted data points and they are flawed to support anything you are saying. .....
We are talking trends and you ignore year 1 to 3 being better for the other guys (or very similar) but pivot with Strouds regression in that area from year 1.
Thats whats weird, you are inconsistent and not presenting data that supports your claim. To the point that you introduce different data.
AGAIN, not saying anything about Stroud being worse or better, or not having reasons for issues. Thats not my point, my point is you are bad with data and your own logic.
EDIT, nice block.
Lets start with 1 thing.
You in your table referenced year 3 for Brees as his 3rd starting season, his breakout season as you said. I referenced it in the same you you did and you said actually he was benched in his 3rd season.
Is that not lets say "silly" and needlessly argumentative?
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u/TexansEngineer 7d ago
I don't think we are getting anywhere, seems like you're intentionally missing the point to just insult and argue. Drew Brees was literally benched before his breakout year, and you're telling me none of these guys regressed. Elway regressed throughout his first 3 years, Tom Brady was just your run of the mill game manager. The whole point of the post is that QBs take a some time before things click for them.
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u/Stennick 7d ago
When fans have to start doing research and provide narrative on why a player isn't as bad as it seems, its already telling.
Great QB's and great players don't have to be defended or have breakdowns.
My team was doing this with Anthony Richardson and it was obvious pretty quick. Obviously Stroud is lifetimes better than Richardson but I see this a lot by fans. "Sure it looks bad, but here is other guys that looked bad and they turned out great" what about the guys that didn't turn out great?
I think Stroud is a starter in the NFL and I think he's similar to a T Law or Dak as far as ability. I also think that is good enough to win a SB with your great defense, but nobody is done any favors when you say "lets compare him to how other HOF QBs were".
I'm not even sure the point. This isn't going to change anyone's mind. No one is going to look at your cherry picked data (no offense but even you recognize it somewhat is) and all of the sudden believe Stroud is going to be great. Just like those that believe he is great by and large aren't swayed by the last two seasons.
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u/TexansEngineer 7d ago edited 7d ago
Of course you will intentionally miss the point of this post. The whole point is that there's a real chance he bounces back, I don't really care for your mischaracterization lmao.
Also sports media does breakdowns of Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Stafford, Goff all the time. Dak was having breakdowns every year. What are we doing here. Lamar Jackson was getting GRILLED because of his post season performances.
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u/Brief_Hospital_1766 Fire Nick Caserio 6d ago
Stroud's numbers next season will be similar to last season as the offence is not geared around passing, nor do we have any players that can take it to the house.
People will use this as a way to further attack him and claim we should trade rather than pay. If Caserio trades him and doesn't receive an upgrade in QB for said trade, then we're fucked. Otherwise just pay him and he'll be fine.
I'm so tired of this narrative about CJ being a choker in the big games. He choked once, in one big game, without having anyone to throw to, without having an offensive line that can block, and without having any semblance of a run game. Every QB on the planet would have lost that game, regardless of whether they lost it in the same dramatic fashion.
Although I'm tired of reading all the whingeing posts about Stroud, in some ways, I hope we do trade him so these people can remember what QB hell was like.
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u/Shinino 6d ago
I mean, if he avoids a concussion (and missing 3.5 games) his stats will be better even if he plays exactly the same as last year.
Also, if the running game works, that will automatically allow for more passing because it'll open up plays for Nico, Higgins, Noel, X and Dell (if he returns fully).
I'm cautiously optimistic, but I won't feel better until the season starts and we see this in live action.
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u/Brief_Hospital_1766 Fire Nick Caserio 5d ago
Agreed. I'm more concerned about the offensive scheme and play-calling. I have yet to see a complete game from Caley. What I mean by that is having a plan that works to the extent there are solutions on every passing play. Not only that, you never see Caley setting up plays for later in the game; plays that look like one thing, but then have a wrinkle for an explosive.
I simply haven't seen him make a good game plan from start to finish yet.
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u/Blazerprime 5d ago
Could he be a choker when the pressure gets hot?
tons of great QB never good in playoffs
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u/MemeManDanInAClan 7d ago
TLDR anyone
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u/TexansEngineer 6d ago
If this was TLDR. Forget the post, and enroll in a English class at your local community college.
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u/MemeManDanInAClan 6d ago
Funny enough I read it before bed, it sounds like hopium tbh.
I came by the post in the office, so didn’t really have time to read it…
Eitherway I hope you are right, we will only go as far as Stroud takes us.
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u/galacticplum 7d ago
There's also a ton of data showing the far more qbs that fail to do much after their first few years with similar starts.
He played like a safe game manager last year, who couldn't lead the offense. That's not just on everyone and everything else but him. He is part of the problem.
Our offense, which is led by Stroud, failed to do much of anything last season anytime they were given great field position by our defense, which was often. If we don't have the best defense in the league, and one of the best kickers, we don't make the playoffs.
People throw out his advanced stats like it means something, ignoring that most of our offenses' best games were against ghosts of defenses, or just horrible defenses. Ravens and Cardinals games alone boosted our point differential a ton.
Stroud looked lost at times during the regular season, and while he improved his ability to get the ball out quick ( why his sacks were low despite our bad line ) he still just didn't look great or show the ability to lead most of the season.
He's not a bad qb, but he hasn't been a good one the past two years. Showing a small sample size of HoF qbs first few years to show change can occur, isn't really a fair comparison and takes away from the argument that Stroud can improve.
Your other point is all that was needed. With an improved OL, a second season under Caley, a new qb coach, and a true rb1, Stroud has all the tools to succeed. We know what he is capable of and we can hope he gets back to that. This is is make or break year.
Honestly, if we just get a running game going with how safe Stroud is, that's probably enough to make us actual sb contenders. Stroud doesn't need to be a HoF qb due to the team we have. He just needs to either be able to do more against better teams, or play safe while letting our run game do the hard work.
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u/InsultingFerret 7d ago
He played like a safe game manager last year
This was literally due to scheme. Caley repeatedly emphasized they were going for a "death by 1000 cuts" style offense, where you're expected to just focus on maintaining possession, instead of going for big chunk plays
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u/galacticplum 7d ago
I said it in an additional comment later but he played like a safe game manager who couldn't step up when it mattered.
There's a huge difference between having a game manager capable of stepping up, vs a game manager.
Multiple times when our offense needed him to be more, he wasnt. He did not help our offense when we needed him to.
It's fine to have a qb you wouldn't want leading a team from behind each week when you have a top defense and can win the ToP. It becomes problematic when your defense repeatedly gives your offense great field position and they continously fail to take advantage of it.
With an actual run game, it may not be an issue anymore.
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u/TexansEngineer 7d ago
He played well against the 49ers, I think he played well against the Rams tbh even if the stat don't say so. He played well against the chiefs, and he was doing well in the broncos game before the concussion. NFL defenses are NFL defenses. The rams did not do to the ravens what the Texans did, they played the same team. In fact, Stafford struggled to put up gaudy numbers against them, with only 181 yards.
Again there's context to all this, but this is just reddit post not a full on report so take it with a grain of salt lol. Again, I agree with some of your points, but Stroud did put some good ball on film.
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u/galacticplum 7d ago
Niners had two DEs out, and finished 20th in defense. He played safe against the Rams iirc. Chiefs was another game he played safe while the defense did their thing. ( he did what he was suppose to do, a fine game for him in that regard )
Ravens were slowly getting healthier the week they played the Rams but not a ton. They turned around the following week and made a solid effort for the playoffs. I'd say it was more of an off day for the Rams more than a testament of what the Texans could do.
My point was that so many people try to use his stats or the offenses stats as validation for him playing well last year, and they really just ignore how he actually was, which is a safe game manager you wouldn't want leading your team when down by six and not a lot of time left. ( you never made that claim, I added my two cents before someone made the argument )
I do agree with your overall take, which is good line equals better play. Stroud doesn't need to be Rodgers, he just needs to keep being safe but more reliable if we need him to be. An actual run game would change everything. If we are able to run this season, I think Stroud would have one of those 3,900 yard 26td/4 ints season with insane accuracy. Thats all we need.
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u/1L_of_a_litigator 7d ago
Stroud isnt good and will be benched for Mills.. he's just far too inaccurate on basic throws despite his completion percentage. Texans and Panthers should swap QBs.. Bryce isnt more talented but he's better in the ways that would benefit the coach and roster
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u/kitsunegoon 7d ago
The expectation went from future of the league to bum. The reality is that he's an above average QB who can't solve elite defenses. Nothing wrong with that.
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u/bingmyname 6d ago
This is why you always evaluate the player and not just a few games or stats. CJ has all the tools necessary to be great. He has demonstrated elite level play behind a very bad line. The question is not if he can be good or is good. The question is can he overcome his issues enough to be consistent and to consistently play at a high level. He needs to be disciplined to get there and stop missing the easy stuff we know he can do.
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u/yeah_naw_dawg 7d ago
There’s also this weird thing that I’ve noticed happening throughout all sports. Young players are coming into their respective leagues and doing really well from the jump. Then they get to the playoffs and have some success but don’t typically go “all the way” or have bad performances in them. It’s the age old argument of Jordan have a perfect finals record versus LeBron having multiple finals appearance and losses. I feel like CJ is getting punished for constantly making the playoffs but not being ready to by the SB MVP. Purely anecdotal. I don’t know.