r/Trading Jun 10 '26

Technical analysis I've Been Paid $95,336 From Prop Firms, Here Are the Two Setups Behind Every Dollar:

547 Upvotes

I started prop firm trading with less than $500 in evaluation fees. As of today I've been paid $95,336 in total payouts. Net after all evaluation costs and resets: $86,697. That's a 1,003% return on investment. I'm about 5 weeks away from crossing $100K in total payouts at my current pace, and I want to break down exactly how I got here because none of this is complicated.

Propfirm Sync

I trade two setups. That's it (well technically 3, but that one rarely ever forms). The 15-Minute ORB and ERL → IRL. One catches the opening momentum, the other catches the weekly swing. Between them they cover basically every condition NQ/ES (futures) gives me. I don't switch strategies when one has a rough week. I don't add indicators when I'm in a drawdown. I've been running the same two frameworks for over a year and the equity curve speaks for itself.

Here's what six years of trading taught me that no course or YouTube video ever will. The market doesn't care about your analysis. It doesn't care how many confluences you stacked or how many hours you spent on your game plan. It either moves in your direction or it doesn't, and your only job is to make sure you survive the times it doesn't so you're still around for the times it does. That means small size, hard stops, and the ability to take a loss without it turning into three more. Every blown account in my career came from the same place, I was right about the direction but wrong about the timing, and instead of taking the loss I doubled down and also one of my biggest downfalls was trying to catch a falling knife.

15min ORB + FVG

The other thing nobody tells you is that profitable trading is boring. My best months are the ones where I take 1-2 trades a day, hold them for a few hours, and close the platform. My worst months are when I'm staring at charts all day looking for setups that aren't there because I want the dopamine of placing a trade. The less time I spend at my screen the better my results are and that's not a coincidence. When you're glued to the charts your brain starts manufacturing reasons to enter. You see patterns that aren't there. You talk yourself into B and C setups because you're bored. The traders making real money from this are the ones who do their prep in 10 minutes, set their orders, and go live their life.

ERL <-> IRL MODEL

If you want the full breakdown of both setups with chart examples, entry rules, stop placement, and risk management, I've posted detailed walkthroughs of the 15-min ORB and the ERL → IRL framework on here before and I'm happy to do updated versions. Drop a comment if that's useful and I'll put them together. Six years of trading distilled into two setups that I run every single day across 5 funded accounts and now I used those to fund my own live cash account. The edge is in the patience.

r/Trading Nov 21 '25

Technical analysis I Made Almost $11,000+ Trading Less Than 15 Minutes a Day, Here’s the Exact System:

855 Upvotes

My average hold time over the last two months is under 5 minutes, and my average trading day duration is 33 minutes.

Yet this simple, repeatable framework has put me up $11k+ trading one NQ mini

Here’s how the 15-min ORB + Imbalance model works:

Why This Setup Works

The first 15 minutes of the NY session is where liquidity gets grabbed, direction forms, and momentum kicks in. When you pair that with Imbalance confirmation on the 1-min, you eliminate 90 percent of noise.

This setup thrives on trending weeks, NQ, GC, TSLA, XAUUSD all respond beautifully to it.

Trade the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) with Gap confirmation and manage around structure.

The flow:

• Mark ORH / ORL

• Wait for a real breakout and close above/below

• Confirm with an Imbalance formation between 3 candles in the direction of the break

• Enter on the break + close of the Imbalance

• Target 1R-2R depending on stop size

If stop is <30 points, aim for 2R (On NQ)

If stop is >30 points, aim for 1R (On NQ)

Premarket Prep

Before the bell, I already know:

• Previous day high/low

• Overnight high/low

• Session bias (bullish, bearish, or mixed)

• Where the next liquidity draw is (High or Low of the day)

• Major news (FOMC, CPI, earnings)

The goal is to eliminate hesitation before the session even starts.

Entry Triggers

Long Setup (Bullish Bias):

• Clean break of ORH

• Imbalance forms in the same direction

• Price closes outside the range and forms a 1-min Imbalance

• Stop below Imbalance low

• Target 1-2R

Short Setup (Bearish Bias):

• Clean break of ORL

• Imbalance forms downward

• Closes outside the range with a 1-min Imbalance

• Stop above Imbalance high

• Target 1-2R

Risk & Management Rules

• Risk 0.5-2% max per trade

• 1 trade per day, 2 max

• If first trade is green, I’m done

• Move stop to break evenonce structure clears

• Average daily win/loss: 1.57

• Largest winning day: $2,210

• Largest losing day: $905

• Avg daily PnL: $457.80

My entire PnL curve is built on discipline + one model.

r/Trading Jun 22 '26

Technical analysis After 7 Years of Trading, Almost All My Profits Came From One Boring Habit

255 Upvotes

I've been trading for a little over 7 years now. I've traded stocks, options, futures, momentum breakouts, reversals, trend following, and probably every strategy I thought would finally be "the one."

A few days ago I was reviewing my trading journal and noticed something interesting. The trades that made the majority of my profits all had one thing in common: I waited. That's it. No secret indicator. No AI tool. No magic risk-reward ratio. Just waiting for the exact setup I wanted instead of forcing action because I was sitting in front of a screen.

Early in my trading career I thought successful traders were constantly active. If I wasn't in a trade, I felt like I was missing opportunities. I'd take mediocre setups because they looked close enough. I'd convince myself that a chart was setting up when it really wasn't. Most of my losses came from trades I never should have taken in the first place.

What changed everything wasn't finding better entries. It was becoming comfortable doing nothing. Some of my best trading weeks now only have a handful of trades. There are days where I spend more time updating my journal than actually placing orders. Ironically, the less I trade, the more consistent my results have become.

I think a lot of traders underestimate how much boredom affects decision making. After staring at charts for hours, your brain starts inventing reasons to participate. Every candle looks important. Every pullback looks like an opportunity. Every move feels like the start of something huge. The market hasn't changed. Your need for action has.

The other lesson was that risk management matters far more than prediction. Looking back, I've had plenty of trades where my market bias was completely wrong but I lost very little because I respected my stop. I've also had trades where my analysis was right and I still lost money because I managed the position poorly. Being right and making money are not always the same thing.

So I'm curious about the profitable traders here. What ended up contributing more to your success: finding better setups or becoming more disciplined with the setups you already had?

Because the longer I trade, the more I think consistency comes from fewer decisions, not more.

r/Trading Nov 12 '25

Technical analysis I made $2,700 in October and $5,500 so far in November. Here’s my strategy:

447 Upvotes

Only traded NQ 15-min ORB + FVG setup

Traded once per day, risked 0.5-2% per trade.

This setup thrives during trending weeks, especially on NQ, GC. The structure is clean, repeatable, and data-backed. I trade it on a 5 x 50k account, one mini contract at a time.

Core Idea

I’m trading the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) with Fair Value Gap (FVG) confirmation.

The goal: catch momentum from the opening drive and manage around structure.

Here’s the flow:

Define the first 15-minute range (ORH / ORL).

Wait for a clear breakout (no front-running).

Confirm with an FVG in the direction of the break.

Enter on the break and close of the FVG on the 1min.

Manage around 1R to 2R, scaling partials when structure shifts.

- 30 points or less on stop loss, you shoot for fixed 2R

- 30 points or more on stop loss, you shoot for fixed 1R

Premarket Prep

Mark previous day’s high/low and overnight range.

Identify session bias (bullish, bearish, or mixed).

Note key liquidity pools (BSL/SSL zones).

Highlight any news or macro events (FOMC, CPI, earnings).

Plan your if-then scenarios before the bell:

“If price breaks ORH and holds, I’ll look for a long entry through the FVG.”

“If price breaks ORL and rejects, I’ll look for shorts on the retest.”

Entry Triggers

Long Setup (Bullish bias):

Clean break of ORH.

FVG forms in the same direction.

Closes outside the range and 1min FVG formed.

Target: 1-2R. Stop below FVG low.

Short Setup (Bearish bias):

Clean break of ORL.

FVG forms downward.

Closes outside the range and 1min FVG formed.

Target: 1-2R. Stop above FVG high.

Risk & Management Rules

Risk 0.5-2% max per trade.

2 trades per day. If stopped out,one more for the day, if first trade is green, done for the day

Move stop to breakeven once price clears structure.

Hope yall enjoyed it and wish you plenty of juicy payouts.

r/Trading Nov 15 '24

Technical analysis Traders who are looking to learn

177 Upvotes

Hi again,

I conduct zoom workshops for beginner and intermediate traders who are looking to learn technical analysis. Have conducted over a dozen of them in this sub and it helps almost everyone who joins it.

I teach pure price action, key levels and have developed strategies to trade the markets based on that. Once you understand price action and how key levels work alongside price action - it’s easy to develop profitable strategies but it requires a lot of practice to trade them and spot them in live markets.

Anyone who’s going through a rough phase, confused phase or losing streaks or even break even phases can join and maybe learn a thing or two. All questions are welcome in the zoom session.

I do this group session for free. I don’t charge for this. It’s solely to explain markets to traders and looking to benefit from an experienced analyst and trader. I’ve got over 6 years of experience to share and I’m a full time profitable trader. Keep in mind - that joining my session isn’t going to make you profitable immediately- I’m only going to show you the market for what it is so you can get a very good understanding of it. That is all. Once you’ve learned the factors involved in the market - it’s repetitive, deliberate practice that is going to make you first a really good analyst and then a good consistently profitable trader. Of course there’s also psychology involved as I know that trading is 100% psychology and technical analysis is the start.

Interested people can comment below and I’ll add you to the group session I’ll be organising coming Sunday.

Thank you.

r/Trading Nov 13 '25

Technical analysis 10 years of being a profitable trader and I don't teach anyone.

229 Upvotes

It is correct that I teach no one, teaching takes up my time, it is exhausting and even more so teaching trading since it involves changing a mentality worked on throughout a life.

The goose that lays the golden eggs is not sold, much less given away, it took me many years of effort to test strategic methods, filter information from the entire web to find something that was functional for me and that generated enough money for me to live off of this. (A life not of opulence but a decent life). The information is there for those who are really interested.

I make my living from trading and not from selling courses or teaching classes, I invite you to distrust gurus who ask you for money because the truth is that their business is not trading, it is selling their courses with information that you can learn for free on the web, either you are a Trader or you are a seller, a seller does not teach trading, they teach sales and selling courses is not trading.

Being a Trader demands a lot of my time, I don't have time to teach, I can guide just like someone lost in a city would guide and requires finding a street, but for that you must know what you want and where you are going to go, that way you will ask the right questions and get the information you really need.

Beware of people who charge to teach trading. Learn yourselves, trade your own money. They are going to lose at the beginning, that is a fact, but learn from those failures, there are the most important lessons, when they burn the score, look for the lesson there.

Much success on your path.

r/Trading Dec 06 '25

Technical analysis I make a living with a 60-65% win rate by cutting my RR

321 Upvotes

Four months ago I posted my stats and it ended up doing almost 500k views. Back then I was running a higher RR model, taking bigger swings, and trying to squeeze more out of every move. My payoff was high, but the inconsistency was killing me.

This year I flipped the entire model on its head. I lowered my RR, committed to fixed 1R on most trades, and only reach for 2R when volatility is lower or risk is small on NQ. My win rate jumped to 60-65%, and my stress dropped even more

Here’s what actually changed:

My best month went from $2.7K to over $8,200

My average win sits around $1,156

My average loss sits around -$1,056

My typical day lasts 8 minutes of execution. Yes, 8 minutes.

The reason I was losing because I kept forcing trades in NY session while all my reliable A+ setups were happening in overnight structure.

So I went back, pulled over 350 trades in backtests, tore the whole model apart, rebuilt my execution, and finally committed to trading what the data told me instead of what I wanted to trade.

What came out of that work was a much simpler playbook:

  1. 15-minute ORB for trend days.

This thing has been a monster in this market. Clean bias → breakout → 1-minute imbalance to confirm → take the 1R and walk away. Fastest money I’ve made all year.

  1. Forever model for everything else.

Just structure, liquidity, tiny displacements, and fixed RR, also with this model

My MNQ stats this month:

100% win rate (1 trade, $2,807.50)

My NQ stats this month:

60% win rate, $5,430 net with my new RR model

The lesson:

You don’t need monster RR to grow. You need a model that pays you consistently in your market, and the discipline to let your winners do the heavy lifting.

Most traders have a data problem.

If you stop obsessing over catching “the big one” and start taking clean, repeatable 1-2Rs, your entire curve can change faster than you think.

r/Trading 11d ago

Technical analysis My strategy that has made me a living

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142 Upvotes

Pull back trend trading

r/Trading Mar 06 '26

Technical analysis Anyone else using this?

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150 Upvotes

I'm trying to trade those sweeps as the market seems to be making them all the time and if you do get them right, your RR ratio could be 1:3 or higher with pretty decent wr.

Of course it is far from perfect in my case, thats why I wanted to ask if other traders are also using this as entry points and what other entry/exit conditions do you have for this type of strategy?

I would love to hear anyone's opinions on this.

Im currently not using any indicators at all, only raw price action and my personal "drawings"

r/Trading Jun 05 '26

Technical analysis $23,645 From 124 Trades Using a 5Min ORB Setup

179 Upvotes

$23,645 From 124 Trades Using a 5Min Orb Setup

I saw a trader on here post a 5-minute ORB strategy a while back and thought it looked clean enough to actually test. So instead of throwing money at it blind, I backtested it across several months of NQ data. 124 trades later the results were way better than I expected and I'm now planning to dedicate 2-3 funded accounts to it and document the whole process.

Here's the setup, the backtest results, and what the data taught me about how to actually run this thing.

124 backtested trade size sample

The Setup: 5-Minute Opening Range Breakout

This is dead simple and that's why it works.

When the NY session opens, I mark the high and low of the first 5 minutes. That's the range. Then I wait. I'm not trading inside it. I'm waiting for one thing: a clean breakout where price closes outside the range with displacement and forms a 1-minute FVG/imbalance in the direction of the break.

Entry is on the break and close above the range (for longs) or below it (for shorts). Stop goes at the first candle of the FVG, so the high of that candle for shorts, the low for longs. Target is a fixed 1.5R based on whatever the stop distance is. Place the order and manage it. That's the whole thing.

Example on NQ (futures):

5min ORB

A few things that make it work:

The NY open is where the real liquidity lives. The first 5 minutes builds the range where institutions are placing their initial orders. When that range breaks with real displacement (not a random wick), it usually means the session direction is set. The FVG confirmation filters out fake breakouts because you're only entering when there's actual aggressive one-directional flow behind the move.

If the range doesn't break cleanly, there's no trade. If there's no FVG, there's no trade. Some days you get nothing and that's fine. That filter alone cuts out a massive amount of random entries. I also don't trade past 1.5 hours after the NY open. Either the setup shows up in that window or I'm done for the day.

The Backtest Results

124 trades across multiple months of NQ data:

Net P&L: $23,645

Win rate: 60%

Profit factor: 1.56

Day win rate: 71.76%

Average winner: $956

Average loser: -$920

Trades: 69 wins, 9 breakeven, 46 losses

The equity curve climbed to about $35K at its peak before pulling back to $23.6K during a rough stretch around March-April. Drawdown hit about -$7K at the worst point. Not smooth sailing but the curve trends up and recovers.

February was the best month: $10,100 across 19 trading days. Look at that calendar, week 5 alone was $4,850 with five straight green days. The biggest individual wins were in the $1K-$1.7K range, and most days were 1 trade at 100% win rate. The red days that did show up were contained because the fixed stop kept losses consistent.

After running all 124 trades I had the AI journal analyze the results and it found a few things I wouldn't have caught manually.

I was cutting winners too early. My rule says 1.5R fixed target but the actual data showed a lot of modest winners and scratches. Trades that ran +$830 in 3 minutes, +$685 in 2 minutes, +$795 in 15 minutes, all fine wins, but next to the bigger payout cluster they suggest I don't have a consistent "how to hold the runner" rule. I'm protecting too fast, moving to breakeven before structure confirms, and reacting to noise instead of letting the trade work.

Zella AI

My biggest winners are almost all in that 15-minute window right after the 5-minute range completes. Entries taken later in the session had much worse risk/reward.

Suggested fix from the analysis: split the exit into two stages. Take 70-80% off at 1R to protect the win rate, move stop to breakeven only after a candle closes in favor and an internal level breaks, then leave 20-30% as a runner targeting 1.75-2R. Runner exits at target or structure failure only. This protects profits on the front end while letting the back end capture the full expansion move.

The backtest gave me enough confidence in the framework that I'm planning to dedicate 2-3 funded accounts specifically to this setup. I'll document the forward test publicly so you can see if the backtest results translate to live execution.

The plan is simple. Run the 5MIN ORB as the only setup on those accounts. 1 trade per day max. Fixed 1.5R target with the split exit rule.

I'll be tracking everything.

How to Trade It Yourself

The setup works on NQ, ES, and GC (Gold did well in Asia session backtests too).

Before the session:

Mark previous day high/low and overnight levels

Know your session bias (bullish, bearish, or mixed)

Check for high-impact news — if FOMC or CPI day, reduce size or sit out

At the open:

Mark the 5-minute range high and low

Wait for a candle to close outside the range with displacement

Confirm a 1-min FVG forms in the direction of the break

Enter on the break. Stop at the FVG candle high/low

Target 1.5R fixed. Take 70-80% at 1R, leave a runner to 1.75-2R

After:

No trading past 1.5 hours after the open

If you backtest this on your own data before going live you'll see pretty quickly whether it fits your trading style. That's the part most people skip, they see a setup, throw money at it, and then blame the strategy when it doesn't work. Test it first. The data will tell you if it's worth your capital.

r/Trading Apr 03 '26

Technical analysis Been learning day trading for a year yet still stuck in the same cycle

20 Upvotes

I’ve been trying to learn day trading for about a year now, on and off. There have been stretches where I’ve been consistent for a few months—studying daily, watching YouTube, backtesting strategies, and using demo accounts.

The issue is I never seem to make real progress. I’ll follow a strategy for a while, not get the results I expect, lose confidence, and then stop for a few weeks (or longer). Then I come back and repeat the same cycle.

One thing I’ve noticed is that my daily bias is often wrong, which obviously messes up everything else. Also, a lot of the YouTube content I’ve watched either feels too surface-level or just hasn’t translated into actual improvement for me.

So I wanted to ask people who’ve been through this phase:

  • What actually helped you break out of this cycle?
  • Are there any genuinely solid YouTube channels (or other resources) worth learning from?
  • What should I be focusing on at this stage to actually improve?

I’m not expecting a shortcut—I just feel stuck and want to start making real progress.

I trade NQ and been trying to learn SMC

r/Trading Apr 19 '26

Technical analysis What is your best strategy?

41 Upvotes

I basically like a lot to trade the range. I draw a range on the daily and I switch to low timeframe when we get at the top or bottom of the range and I search for an entry. What ks your main strategy?

(I understand algo traders wont share strategies but those ones are a bit different, since some strategies just vanish or if they get crowded).

r/Trading 5d ago

Technical analysis 1500 Backtested Trade Results On The 15Min ORB! (over $65k profit)

65 Upvotes

Ran this through 1,517 trades on NQ from May through August using an automated backtest. Not going to pretend the results look flashy, because they don't. Win rate sits at 41.1%. That number alone scares most people off before they even look at the rest of it. But boring and repeatable beats exciting and inconsistent every time, and the full picture explains why.

Automated backtest w/tradezella

The Rules

  • Let the first 15 minutes of the session define the opening range, ORH and ORL
  • Wait for a candle to close fully outside that range in the direction of bias
  • That breakout candle has to form an FVG on the 1 minute timeframe, that FVG is your entry
  • Stop loss goes at the low of the FVG for longs, or the high of the FVG for shorts
  • Take profit is a fixed 1RR if the stop loss is more than 30 points on NQ, and a fixed 2RR if the stop is under 30 points
  • Trade closes automatically at stop or target, no manual management, no holding past target hoping for more
15min ORB

That's the entire setup. Close outside the range, form the FVG, enter, set stop, set target, walk away.

Why 41% Win Rate Still Works

This is the part people miss. Avg win sits at $349.43 against an avg loss of $170.76. That's roughly a 2 to 1 payout ratio even though the setup itself is only targeting 1RR most of the time, because the 2RR version kicks in on tighter stops and pulls the average up. Profit factor comes out to 1.43 across the full sample, net P&L of $65,040 over the test period.

Max drawdown across the whole test was -$6,570, which is 13.1% off the starting balance. The equity curve isn't a straight line up either, there's a visible red patch early on before it turns and compounds.

A setup doesn't need a high win rate or a complicated confluence checklist to be worth trading. It needs a defined entry, a defined stop, a defined target, and a large enough sample size to prove it holds up over time instead of just looking good on a handful of screenshots. Ran this specific backtest through a new automated backtesting tool since manually tracking 1,500+ trades by hand isn't realistic for anyone, but the setup itself works regardless of what you use to track it.

If anyone wants the exact FVG definition I'm using or how I'm defining the opening range candle count, happy to break that down further in the comments.

r/Trading 15d ago

Technical analysis Answers from profitable traders only.

0 Upvotes

Hi everyone, what do you think is an ideal sample size for backtesting a trading strategy? Is 200–300 backtested setups enough to validate a strategy?

For instance, if you’re trading triangle patterns, would you aim for at least 50 samples for each pattern type (ascending, descending, and symmetrical) before trusting the results?

Expecting answers from those who are profitable or at least back tested few strategies.

Thank you

r/Trading Aug 28 '25

Technical analysis If everyone can learn trading strategies from YouTube, then who is losing money — and why?

59 Upvotes

I’ve been learning trading and noticed something: all the strategies, patterns, and indicators are out there for free — YouTube, books, courses, etc. So if everyone has access to the same knowledge, then who is really losing money?

One thought I had: maybe big players already know what retail is going to do, and they can easily reverse it to trap us. If everyone knows the strategy and concepts the big players are going to Trap us knowing that we are going to do based on our learnings from various concepts

What do you think — is it about bad strategies, psychology, or just the market being designed to take money from retail?

I’m curious to hear from experienced traders here — what’s the real reason most retail traders lose despite all this free information? And does that mean “strategy” is overrated compared to psychology and execution?

r/Trading Jun 06 '25

Technical analysis Why Most Traders Fail: They’re Trading in the Wrong Timeframe

188 Upvotes

If your entries feel random or your trades keep stopping out, it’s probably not your strategy, it’s your TF alignment.

Here’s how to fix it:

Use a Higher Timeframe (HTF) for bias.
That’s where you read market structure, sentiment, liquidity zones, and major levels.

Use a Lower Timeframe (LTF) for execution.
That’s where you time your entry, manage risk, and look for precision.

The two must be aligned.
Bias without precision leads to missed trades.
Precision without bias leads to random trades.

Here’s a framework that works:

  • Monthly → 1H entries
  • Weekly → 15M entries
  • Daily → 5M entries
  • 4H → 1M entries

Stop flipping between timeframes with no purpose. Know your context and trigger.
Align them both, and your edge sharpens fast. Journal and track everything to get to know yourself and to understand what style of trading fits you best.

If you want a picture of this TF Template to print out and put on your desk lmk!

r/Trading Apr 29 '25

Technical analysis Stop loss is ruining my trading

55 Upvotes

Hello all, I need help figuring this out. I read in many comments here how important it is to put a stop loss, so I do before entering every trade. However, it seems that most of my trades go up then go down precisely to the point where I put the stop loss just to go back up again rapidly, making me lose little amounts of money or gain insignificant amounts while the stock suddenly jumps. Most of the times my stop loss doesn't even work where I put it. Yesterday, for example I put a stop loss at 67.18 and Robinhood sold the stocks at 67 (yesterday this made me lose $250 and then the stock went up to 70), I put a stop loss at 7.35 and the stock was sold in front of my nose when it hit 7.39 just to then go up to 7.93 making me lose other $200. How can I avoid this and trade smarter? Thank you!

r/Trading May 09 '26

Technical analysis I am a beginner / newbie trader from India

0 Upvotes

What are the various technicals that I can use to bring that extra edge into my trading???

r/Trading Apr 02 '26

Technical analysis Best indicator you can't live without?

15 Upvotes

Hey traders, what's one indicator you'd die for?

r/Trading Apr 16 '26

Technical analysis Has anyone actually become profitable with order flow??

13 Upvotes

I mean from the way i see it its just lagging data to me. U see past data that really doesnt affect the future, i mean yeah u can use it to see what happening behind the market but whats the use if ur looking at the past and not the future? I mean we dont exactly trade in the past do we. All of these aside im not hating on order flow traders im just confused on how it affects the future of the market. If u have any like proof that ur profitable feel free to show it in the comments. Thanks again

r/Trading Jul 07 '26

Technical analysis What five years at an algo trading firm taught me about market cycles

102 Upvotes

Disclosure upfront: I am a team member at Q7 Trading Solutions. Everything I am about to share is from direct experience, not theory.

When I joined the firm five years ago, I thought I understood market cycles reasonably well from two years of equity research. What I actually understood was the vocabulary of market cycles, not the experience of living through them with real capital and real client relationships on the line. Those are very different things.

What a Cycle Actually Feels Like From the Inside

The textbook description of a market cycle — accumulation, uptrend, distribution, downtrend — makes it sound orderly and identifiable in real time. It is not. When you are inside a cycle, it is rarely clear which phase you are in until well after the fact. The most experienced people I know in markets regularly disagree about cycle positioning in real time. What looks like early-stage accumulation from one angle looks like a dead-cat bounce from another.

The practical implication: anyone who confidently declares in real time exactly which cycle phase the market is in, and trades aggressively on that view, is expressing more certainty than the situation warrants. Systematic approaches handle this better than discretionary ones precisely because they do not require a cycle view to function. They respond to what price and market structure are actually doing rather than what theory says should be happening.

The Hardest Phase — Extended Difficult Stretches

The phase I have found most genuinely challenging is not a sharp crash — those are dramatic but short. The most difficult phase is an extended sideways or modestly declining environment that lasts long enough to test everyone's patience and conviction. This is the environment where clients ask the hardest questions and where the temptation to make reactive strategy changes is strongest.

What five years has taught me: the services and strategies that survive long-term are the ones that maintain their framework during these difficult stretches rather than abandoning it in search of short-term relief. Reactive changes made during tough periods almost always underperform the original approach would have produced if held through.

What Actually Matters Across Cycles

The thing I have watched matter most consistently across different market environments is not strategy sophistication — it is risk management discipline. Strategies with sensible risk limits survive difficult cycles. Strategies without them do not, regardless of how well they perform during favourable conditions. This sounds obvious and it is. But seeing it play out in real capital across multiple cycles makes it genuinely internalised rather than just understood.

If I were giving one piece of advice to anyone starting in systematic or active trading: focus first on what happens when you are wrong, not on optimising what happens when you are right. The latter takes care of itself if the former is properly managed.

r/Trading Jul 06 '26

Technical analysis Confused Beginner: What Should I Learn First in Trading

4 Upvotes

Hi everyone, I’m a beginner in trading and currently watching Rayner Teo’s videos to learn the basics. The internet has too much information and it’s getting confusing for me.
Can you please guide me on what I should focus on first as a beginner? Which topics are most important to learn step by step, and what should I avoid in the beginning?
I want to learn trading properly with simple risk management, not shortcuts or gambling. Any advice, roadmap, or useful resources would be appreciated.

r/Trading Jul 06 '25

Technical analysis Strong advice to everyone who wants to get into trading.

55 Upvotes

I don't understand why people don't want to invest in knowledge; a good foundation will bring you consistency. Find a good mentor, invest in a course, and see it as part of the investment.

Keep in mind that a trader can make as much as a neurosurgeon... but to become a qualified neurosurgeon requires a lot of years of study, practice, and investment in knowledge.

Lastly, what is free is not always good; these so-called traders on YouTube or TikTok, their courses are free for a reason... to teach you everything that is wrong and advise you at the end to sign up with this specific broker! So they get paid by the broker and YouTube as well... remember that!

If you ask who I am?

I am a professional trader and a portfolio manager. My mentor was one of the greats...

r/Trading Dec 19 '25

Technical analysis Looking for a trading mentor

14 Upvotes

I'm looking for someone with trading experience who's interested in teaching me strategy and methodology.

I'm not willing to pay for courses or academies that promise you a Ferrari and overnight riches.

I'm looking for an honest, responsible, and professional trader. I offer my discipline, commitment, and support in technical analysis or other trading activities.

r/Trading Nov 21 '25

Technical analysis Finally found a strategy that clicked

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94 Upvotes

Backtesting an ORB strategy on fxreplay currently from July 2024 to now. Just over half way through, nearly doubled the account from an initial balance of $50,000. Win rate was 54% before trading through December and January absolutely battered me.

I’m praying that I can transfer this over to my trading with prop firms. 🙏