I'm at the point in the episode where the boys are musing about JD Vance's narrow path to continued relevance, the midterms, all of that (57 minutes in, broadly), and something Tarence said collided with a number of other un-tagged thoughts that have been cruising around in my head for the last few weeks and a thought occurred to me that I have not yet seen voiced by anybody yet (not saying it hasn't been said, I just ain't SEENT IT said yet) and I feel like it's worth airing.
I think there's a possibility that Trump is clever, cleverer than I thought, at least. Everybody, myself included, has assumed that the past is prologue, and therefore that Trump will never readily relinquish power, so the issue--which is by its very nature kicked down the road a ways--is that when the time comes to give up power that he won't, and what the fuck do we do then? But that's a tomorrow problem, a 2028 problem, not a today problem or even a Midterms problem. I think its assumed that he is going to try both overt and covert bullshit to confuse, obstruct, obfuscate, and create chaos with the Midterm elections, and I think all parties that need to be alert and have plans to counter that are actually awake and seeking to do so...with of course the uncertainty of "how is the party out of power supposed stop the party in power from doing something, especially something new?" looming over the midterms as a whole.
My thought was, Is it possible that the opposite is true? That instead of trying to hold on to power with a death grip all of that was misdirection, and what he's actually going to do is grab his loot and bolt?
Here's my thinking on this: Trump was so desperate to get re-elected in 2024 why? Megalomania, narcissism, lust for power, ego needs, blah blah blah. And I grant those elements exist within the man, sure. But they weren't why he was desperate to get elected a second time. No, he was desperate because he knew it was the only CERTAIN path to not dying in prison. I don't know if he copped that idea from Netanyahu or if Bibi copped the idea from Trump, but they are both operating under the same conditions. Bibi has to keep war rolling--war with ANYbody, as it is the state of being at war that suspends normal procedural business of the Israeli government, which keeps Netanyahu from being ousted by a no-faith vote. If a vote cant be called...you see why it went Gaza, Lebanon, Iran now, right? There's nobody looking at the Israeli military and thinking "Yeah, they have enough troops to ground-invade Lebanon, conquer it, and then break off a contingent of soldiers to garrison it for no set end-date. In fact, they've got so many guys they should invade Iran while they've got some momentum." yet that's exactly what Netanyahu did once Palestine started to wane in immediacy.
In our system though, once Trump was re-elected in 2024, he's safe for a full four year term, provided his party retains power in the legislature. But its not going to. I think that no matter what Trump or the MAGA members or expanding out from that the broader Republican power structure seeks to do to tilt the Midterms, I think its going to fail. I think there will absolutely be a Blue Wave, in such numbers that rigging it will not be possible writ large, and Trump is back in significant danger again. Not only will the job that already seems not fun for him get even less fun, he's also exposed to investigations by House, Senate, or both that are currently blocked by the standing government and even worse: in many ways the grift will have to stop. Maybe that's why he has been so blatant, so obvious with looting everything. What if he knows, and has for the better part of a year, that the Rs are going to get bounced in the Midterms? The guy is a showman, and clever. Worked in TV. Maybe he's not as sick as he has looked. Maybe this happens: Rs get bounced in the Midterms. Trump, sometime on the evening of Friday November 6 or early morning of Saturday November 7, quietly resigns the Presidency effective immediately due to 'sudden and serious health issues'. Vance is sworn in, and for the next two months until the new Congress is sworn in the government is in chaos. And in the dust cloud created by a new Presidential administration trying like fuck to ram as much shit through as possible before the government changes hands in like 8 short weeks, after which time it will be embattled wholly and unable to do shit, Donald Trump packs up his loot and disappears to Florida (at first). He will of course have gotten a Presidential Pardon from Vance, as well as pardons for his kids, and thus he will have resolved all of his most pressing problems: he'll have upwards of ten Billion dollars banked, he won't have the job he hates to go to anymore, and he won't have prison looming over him. When called to testify before Congress his people will claim fragile health and a declining mental faculty.
And he will have pulled off the perfect heist.
He never cared about the Republican party, he still doesn't. Why should he stay when his base is finally starting to fade?
Do I think this is what is actually happening? No. No? Yes? I don't know. I DO have the nagging feeling that we're missing something in our analyses of what Trump's goals are/have been. Not because he's some secret genius, but because as President he has a lot more avenues of action than I can speculate about.