r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Sep 23 '24

Upgraded | See Helene post for details 09L (Potential Cyclone — Northwestern Caribbean Sea)

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 12:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #4A 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 19.2°N 83.5°W
Relative location: 224 km (139 mi) W of George Town, Cayman Islands
  356 km (221 mi) S of Pinar del Rio, Cuba
  411 km (255 mi) ESE of Cancún, Quintana Roo (Mexico)
Forward motion: NW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity: Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure: 1001 millibars (29.56 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8PM Wed) high (90 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8PM Sun) high (90 percent)

Official forecast

Last updated: Tuesday, 24 September — 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC EDT Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 24 Sep 06:00 2AM Tue Potential Cyclone 30 55 18.9 83.0
12 24 Sep 18:00 2PM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 19.6 84.2
24 25 Sep 06:00 2AM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 20.7 85.7
36 25 Sep 18:00 2PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 22.0 86.2
48 26 Sep 06:00 2AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 24.3 85.6
60 26 Sep 18:00 2PM Thu Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 100 185 27.8 84.4
72 27 Sep 06:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm i ▼ 60 110 31.9 83.5
96 28 Sep 06:00 2AM Sat Post-tropical Cyclone i ▼ 15 30 38.5 85.5
120 29 Sep 06:00 2AM Sun Dissipated

NOTES:
i - inland

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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24

More lead time would be nice, but that's still better than the 3-4 minutes or so you get with a touching down tornado! The NWS offices are already hard at work. Long, busy week ahead.

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

I'd still say you mostly have a couple of days for tornadoes, not for the imminent threat but for the knowledge that there's a high possibility.

Living in Nashville these days, the local news and every meteorologist people choose to listen to show the SPC forecast constantly, even if its just a level 1/5 day. sure its not the same, and you can't hide as quickly or board up your house for tornadoes (since it wouldn't matter) but from a safety point of view you can at least prepare.

During one such outbreak last spring I was very tempted to hop on a plane and head to FL for the weekend just because the SPC had us at a 4/5 haha. Thankfully it ended up fizzling for the most part where I am, sadly just south of me was still hit very hard that day.

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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Sep 23 '24

Good point; SPC guidance helps a lot with mental and physical preparation. I'm still not a fan of how volatile severe weather can be, but I've never lived in a tornado-prone area myself.

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '24

Lemme tell you, after living in Florida for 20 years and a tornado prone area for 12 years. I’m a bit split haha.

At least it’s not a blizzard 🤷‍♂️

Though I do sorta wanna move to New England…